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(NECN: Allison King) - The last time Scott Brown had big a political event in New Hampshire was on December 19. It was the State Republican party's holiday dinner.
Many New Hampshire political operatives are scratching their heads over whether or not he will run against incumbent democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen.
One recent poll shows him tied with Shaheen, another shows him ten points down.
Longtime Republican Political consultant Tom Rath said, "There's a delicate balance on this kind of thing and there's a point at which its clever and there's a point it went on too long."
Rath says he's open to a Brown candidacy, but does feel that, despite a June filing deadline, the window for getting in is starting to close since Shaheen is well known, and will have a lot of money.
Rath said, "I think it's a five to seven million dollar race and to raise that kind of money you have to get in the race sooner rather than later. That clock ticks very different than the legal clock."
New Hampshire voters take their politics seriously. Candidates are expected to know the state and the players and to be visible. Which is one of Brown's problems. While he now calls New Hampshire home, he hasn't been here much.
When Brown does make a New Hampshire appearance, it tends to get national attention, like his participation Sunday in the 15th annual Penguin Plunge at Hampton Beach, which made front page news.
Democratic Party Chair Ray Buckley said, "It made him look quite silly and not like a very serious contender for a very serious position."
Buckley thinks Brown would have a hard time making it past the primary which already has three candidates including former Senator Bob Smith.
As for his residency, Buckley said, "I don't think anyone who has lived in New Hampshire for more than a couple days believes that Scott Brown is from New Hampshire. He can say that he is, but he really is not. He doesn't represent New Hampshire values."
Here's how Brown recently responded to a text I sent him asking about his plan:
"I am getting settled, continuing to help people in NH, MA and around the country raise money and get elected and I will decide when it feels right.