The Projector: Rough Cruise Edition UPDATE

December 21, 2012, 7:23 am
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UPDATE: How 'bout some love for nailing Jack Reacher's number. Fine, I was $100K off but in the world of predicting box office figures, none too shabby. On the other hand, This Is 40 didn't go quite as I/Universal expected. Apparently audiences read reviews - like mine - which used words like: "long, unfunny, punishing", etc. And we musn't forget The Guilt Trip, Babs return to the big screen was met with more empty seats than a Roxette reunion tour.

1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey $37M

2. Jack Reacher $15.6M

3. This Is 40 $12M

4. Rise of the Guardians $6M

5. Lincoln $5.6M

6. The Guilt Trip $5.2M

7. Monsters, Inc. 3D $5M

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While Paramount would have you believe you "deserve" to see Jack Reacher, I'm betting there's not a lot of folks who want to see it. The marketplace has been saturated with gun-toting action flicks over the past several months (Taken 2, Skyfall, etc.) not to mention, the timing for a violence-loaded film is inopportune at best. This is looking like a one-and-done situation rather than the start of a franchise.

1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey $41M - Opened on the low end of expectations (even with the December opening record) but with kids heading out on break, Peter Jackson's spectacle is set to score big cash on a daily basis – vacation days come close to hitting Saturday numbers.

2. This Is 40 $19M - The last comedy to win the weekend? Ted back in early July. And while Judd Apatow's latest crudefest is both unfunny and punishingly long, he's had a reasonably reliable track record at the box office and let's face it, folks could use some laughs right about now. Expect it to score nicely with the on-a-date crowd.

3. Jack Reacher $15.5M - One year ago, Tom Cruise was on top of the money pile with Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol. Cruise will be lucky to deposit a quarter of MI4's $209M domestic haul with the book-turned-attempted film franchise.

4. Monsters, Inc. 3D $13M - While Finding Nemo didn't have near the success The Lion King did in its conversion to 3D, Disney should do decent numbers with the re-release of the 2001 Pixar smash. Benefits from the lackluster response to Rise of the Guardians.

5. The Guilt Trip $6.5M - Tempted to put Babs even lower on the list. Looks wretched.

6. Rise of the Guardians $5.5M - DreamWorks Animation has been dealt a massive blow with this failure. Finally cracked the $70M mark in the states, roughly $50-75M less than the studio expected at this point.

Follow Erick on Twitter: @ErickWeber

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It was many moons ago in a darkened theater that my love of cinema took root as I snuck in to see my first R-rated film, Blade Runner. The futuristic vision that Ridley Scott unleashed on the screen was simply soul-expanding — spiritual even. From that moment, my mission to have that kind of magic strike again began in earnest. My hope is to be able to shine a light on films that may just have that kind of effect on you — films that may be lesser known, but not lesser in impact. 
             
- Erick Weber

Final Cut Scoring System
99-95% Opening night
94-90% Opening weekend
89-86% In theaters
85-83% On Demand
82-80% Netflix/Redbox
79-75% If desperate
74-70% If dozing off
69-65% If intoxicated
64-60% If comatose
Below 60% If brain dead

Erick's reviews
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