Early estimate of weekend snow potential shows half a foot for some of Southern New England

December 27, 2012, 10:32 pm
Print Article

I'm always first to tell my viewers and readers that, outside of 24 hours, any snow accumulation is going to be less likely to verify.  Often, as a result, I don't issue exact forecasts much outside of this window...unless there's a decent level of predictability.  For this upcoming weekend, predictability is, as of this writing, approximately 70%.  It is certain that a developing storm will pass south of New England - meaning almost all of Southern New England will be cold enough for a snow event, rather than any mix.  Cape Cod will be the one possible exception to this - particularly the eastern half of the Cape, where the likelihood of an all snow event is only about 10% (that increases to a 50/50 shot on the western Cape).  So...the big question is: how much will fall from the sky?  The answer to that question hinges almost solely on how quickly the storm passing to our south develops, and the possibilities range from a quick development allowing for snow to spread north very effectively, to a slower development that doesn't allow the snow shield to expand north until the storm center is nearly past our longitude.  My forecast favors a solution that is weighted somewhat toward the quicker side, meaning an expansion of the snow shield over Eastern New York and New England.  My most important task Friday will be to determine if this solution is still the most likely, and by Friday evening on NECN, we'll be within that 24 hour window, and this will either add great support to the forecast, or demand an overhaul.  That said, I hate changing a forecast and would rather put nothing out until there's a decent chance of verification, so the issuance of this early estimate should be evidence of the aforementioned 70% predictability.

Arrival time is Saturday mid-afternoon.  Exit time is very early morning Sunday.

As always, click to enlarge the image.


April 14, 2014 video of the herring in Herring River Harwich Massachusetts
We may have 6 inches of snow in Maine, at the same time the temperature warms to 70 degrees in Massachusetts.
North Adams, MA, has lost wireless phone and internet in heavy rain and wind this Sunday morning.
Lake Champlain's flood stage is 100 feet
74-year-old Paul Oliver of Caswell, Maine was found Wednesday morning
A driver's pickup truck was surrounded by frigid water, and it was rising
On last day of the expo at Hynes Convention Center, veteran runners spoke as massive crowds congregated at Copley Square
Pre-game ceremony took place at Fenway Park on eve of Boston Marathon
'Carbo-loading' event on eve of Boston Marathon featured upbeat music and high spirits