August 19, 2008 Experts predict Northeast is due for big storm Play video

(Joe Joyce, NECN) - August is the peak of hurricane season, and some forecasters have their eyes on New England. Meteorologist Joe Joyce explains why some experts think our region could be in store for a strong storm this year

New England's Historic hurricanes of 38, 44, & 54 seem like long lost memories of days gone past. Storms which occurred when the moon was full, the tide was high and the oceans were ripe for development. Today, Many forecasters feel we are back in the multidecadal ocean cycle which helped to create these storms and could lead to their return to New England very soon.

Both the Atlantic & the Pacific Undergo cycles of warming and cooling lasting 25 to 30 years.... But the two are interrelated....as the temperature of the Atlantic determines the number and strength of the storms....with the Pacific directing where they make landfall

Joe Daleo is a seasonal climatologist who has been forecasting hurricanes and weather for more than 30 years. He says the cycle we are currently in is very similar to that of the 30's 40's and 50's...the years of our greatest hurricanes.

We are definitely in an increased risk with Atlantic in the warm mode and pacific in the cold mode for a greater chance for an East Coast Land fall

In fact our greatest Hurricanes have occurred with a cool La Nina cycle in the Pacific and the Atlantic in this warm mode...

When I look back when we had major hurricanes, we had wet summers

As always with the weather, nothing is nailed in stone

Matt Belk NWS Hurricane leader: The Problem is we can't forecast the jetstream more than two weeks in advance so where the storm will go will depend upon where the jet stream is in any point in time.

Matt Belk is the lead forecaster for Hurricanes at the National Weather service in Taunton, Massachusetts. He says what makes strong New England Hurricanes so unique is the speed in which they arrive.

Matt Belk: New England Hurricanes accelerate so quickly it is easy to run out of time. 1938 Hurricane arrive in just 8 hours covering a distance of 450 miles.

More than 50 years have past since our last major hurricane, and much has changed.... Especially along the South coast...from Connecticut to Cape Cod. It's geography along with its elevation to sea level has made this area more prone to suffering the effects of a hurricane's storm surge. After past tidal river flooding, Providence and New Bedford have built Hurricane Barriers to protect their cities from another hurricane disaster

New Bedford commissioner: I think the Barrier is sound to stand up to a tidal 4 storm . It will protect what it was built for.

Here we are at ground zero for New England's worst storm surges...in the worst case scenario seas would build up to 15 to 25 feet above normal. This fishing pole is about 15 feet, so I am under water and when you look across the canal there are many homes that would be in the path of this storms fury.

Mass Maritime Transportation director: In the event of a storm with a massive storm surge the ocean would funnel up buzzards bay and have no where to go.

If we look at the house across the bay homes would be flooded to the first floor. Would they be washed away?-Joe Absolutely.

Firefighter: In 1938 the tide came through the canal and the surge came sweeping through the water came to this level

If a major hurricane did hit New England today, it's estimated it could create more than 50 billion dollars in damage. The incredible growth of population and development which has occurred along the south coast since the 50's has many concerned about an impending disaster.

Peter Judge MEMA: Coastal regions have quadrupled is size and population. People have no idea what they're getting into.

Joe Daleo: 80% of people New England have never seen a hurricane, Category 3 storm would be devastating

Local Officials say they are highly prepared to respond to a storm of this magnitude. The question remains how the citizens will react in a timely manner to conditions they have likely never seen before.