Hurricane Matthew aims for Florida tonight as it carries its devastation to the United States. Winds are holding their own at 140 mph near the center of the storm. Concern revolves around landfall: is it going to brush the coast or head all the way inland near Melbourne and Cape Canaveral? That question has important ramifications for how much storm surge and destruction are expected with Matthew tonight and tomorrow. A storm paralleling the coast will batter more communities, but keep the most vicious wind offshore. A full-fledged landfall well into Florida will cause more damage and storm surge.
Right now it appears the storm will ride all along the coast, hinting at landfall, but never committing fully. As it clears the Bahamas, it should come storming ashore with the might of some of the bigger hurricanes in the past decade.
While Florida hunkers down, we unwind under high pressure and sunshine. Highs again crest well over 70 in most spots tomorrow. Light onshore breezes at the coast should hold temps in the upper 60s.
A weak cool front will approach this weekend, marked for passage late Saturday and early Sunday. That part of the holiday weekend is the cloudiest, although never enough to qualify as overcast. Showers - more likely sprinkles - will scoot through Saturday night. Some of them may be left on the Cape until midday Sunday as the front slows down and bumps into Matthew.
Speaking of, this bump should be enough to turn him away from the Carolinas and a little offshore, but since the nudge is only slight, it's possible that early next week Matthew may loop back toward Miami! This is late in the forecast period where errors can be large, so there's not a lot compel us to believe this will happen. Nonetheless, we'll be on top of it all the way to the end.