December 1st begins "meteorological winter" - though the calendar has us wait until the Winter Solstice to ring in the winter season. In the world of weather, we define the winter season as December, January and February.
First, we look back on November, and the meteorological autumn season. Boston, Hartford, Providence and Worcester all managed a snowless November, which has only happened three other times in Worcester's climatological record, but as many as 14 other times in Boston's history. The National Weather Service Office in Taunton, Massachusetts, also ran the statistics for November for the metropolitan areas of Southern New England and determined the monthly average temperature for November was the sixth warmest on record in Hartford and Worcester, and ninth warmest for Boston. How about autumn, overall? All major sites were warmer than normal by 2.5 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit, and drier than normal by some three to four inches of precipitation.
Although December is likely to be warmer than normal, this certainly doesn't mean the month will be without wintry fanfare, and that was apparent right out of the gate on Tuesday morning, when pockets of light freezing rain caused school delays in Connecticut and brought out the sanders in Western Massachusetts as well. Though warmer air changed freezing rain to plain rain for many Tuesday, light icing and slippery untreated surfaces continue in some colder valleys of Northern New England into Tuesday night as rain expands and cold air is stubborn to let go of the region.
Wednesday is expected to feature periodic showers and rain across New England, with milder air making inroads and pushing daytime highs to around 50 degrees in Southern New England, with rain totals either side of an inch when all is said and done. By Thursday, colder air will snap into New England, but that's not the end of the story.
While Southern New England will find a blustery wind and cool air, making for a wintry feeling Thursday with a rain and/or snow shower blowing through from time to time, a storm center gaining strength while pulling east across the Gulf of Maine will mean a band of broad, steady snow for the North Country of New England.
Though it's early for specifics, our thinking here at necn is for rain to change to snow in Vermont as soon as Wednesday overnight, then continue to transition to snow from west to east Thursday morning across the North Country of New England, snowing into Thursday night. Not only will a band of steady snow linger for Northern New England, but a west to northwest wind will aid in producing heavier snow near northwest facing mountains, like the western slopes of the Green Mountains, northwest faces of the Whites in New Hampshire, and the mountains of Maine.
By dawn Friday, a few to several inches of snow seems quite possible, with Central and Northern Maine likely to be the greatest recipients, totaling near half a foot:
As more information comes in, we'll surely keep you posted.
