Updated: 13h
Severe Flooding in Northern Vermont will only slowly abate this weekend, as another 2"+ rain is forecast. But instead of inches per hour like Thursday Night, we now get tenths of an inch per hour through Sunday. Many rivers are high and are in flood stage.
Now we wonder.. and it? will it really? Snow in New England this Memorial Day Weekend?
Yes it will.
Here is a guess at how much and where.
We may even see snow flakes in the air Saturday Night all the way to the hills of Southern New Hampshire, and Central/Western Massachusetts.
Drier air works in southwest to northeast Sunday.
Monday should be dry.
Any frost will not arrive until Tuesday, (due to wind and clouds Sunday Night).
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Updated: 1d
PTYPE_STORM_CLOUDS_TEMPS_2I'm off hosting the Special Olympics Cape Cod School Day Games at Dennis-Yarmouth Regional High School on Friday, so I want to be sure to leave my complete thoughts on how the weekend weather is shaping up.  The holiday weekend will NOT be a washout.  Memorial Day looks great, and Sunday still holds promise...
After a predawn Friday deluge for many, a break in the action *should* follow for most areas, though Cape Cod may be in and out of the rain all through the first half of the day. Any break in the action will be replaced by renewed scattered... downpours around midday onward, which eventually will merge into lines of downpours into the evening. That said, between the downpours we'll find both breaks in the action, and perhaps even a few breaks of sun for some.
PRECIP_PROBS_DAY2Clouds, drizzle and rain, cool air all in place Saturday.  How much rain and exactly when does it fall?  At this point, it looks like both coverage and intensity ramp up over the course of the morning and continue to fill in through the afternoon...but not all see equal impact.
The farther out in time we get, the fewer details that are reliably available on the forecast (more on that in a later post regarding predictability). Sunday, for example, there is a wide spread of possibilities ranging PRECIP_PROBS_DAY3from disgusting to steady improvement. The truth may lay in the middle - cool air will be persistent, clouds will be stubborn, but the presence of rain becomes less certain. This is part of the weekend improvement process that should lead us to a nice Memorial Day.
Memorial Day...looks great!
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Updated: 2d

Periods of rain will persist Friday, particularly in Eastern New England, tapering to a few scattered showers amidst some sun but cool air Saturday, then warming and continued drying Sunday and Memorial Day.  Overall, a weekend of improving weather.

Friday Map:

TREND_DPLUS2_HIGHS_NEWENG

Saturday Map:

TREND_DPLUS3_HIGHS_NEWENG

Sunday Map:

TREND_DPLUS4_HIGHS_NEWENG

Memorial Day Monday Map:

TREND_DPLUS5_HIGHS_NEWENG

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Updated: 3d
After scattered severe storms and a tornado warning Tuesday afternoon in New England, new storms are likely to fire Wednesday late afternoon and evening.  Though winds aloft won't be as strong, more energy for storm development will be available as warm and humid air takes over, regionwide.
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Updated: 3d
tornado
Moore, OK yesterday near Telephone Rd and SW 4th (west of Interstate 35)


My friend's son took this picture in Moore, OK yesterday, minutes after the deadly tornado struck. He was driving from his work in Norman northward to Oklahoma City. This normally 30 minute drive took him 5 hours. Images like this one, and worse, paint the picture of how devastating this tornado truly was.  Now, as the recovery and clean-up just starts to get underway, another round of severe weather is expected.

Thankfully, the highest "risk" for severe weather is not in Moore today, but there is a moderate threat for severe weather from parts of eastern Texas to southwest Arkansas. This includes a 10% probability of tornadoes in these locations. While these are the prime areas of focus this afternoon, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a "slight risk" of severe storms that stretches all the way into the Midwest. 

tornado



tornado_probs


The frontal boundary that's serving as the battle zone for these storms will slowly approach the Northeast on Thursday.  Scattered thunderstorms are likely in northern and western New England Thursday afternoon, sliding southeast during the evening and overnight. Some storms that develop may become strong to severe. We'll keep you posted on this threat in the next couple of days.

Meantime, our thoughts and prayers are with those impacted by yesterday's deadly tornado. Click here for ways you can help.

-Danielle
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MORE STORIES:
How cold? Rain will change to snow in the mountains. High will be in the 40s Saturday May 25, 2013, cooling into the 30s by early Sunday.
An overview of expected weather for the Memorial Day weekend shows the entire weekend is NOT forecast to be a washout.
Friday rain will depart...mostly...for the holiday weekend.
Traffic was heavy, but not at standstill, for wet start of holiday weekend
Weekend weather could hurt commerce at regular holiday destination
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