Danielle Niles: Warm front placement determines today's high temperatures

A warm front is making slow northward progress along the south coast of New England this morning...and its eventual position will play a primary role in determining high temperatures this afternoon. North of the boundary, cool air will hang tough; expect highs only in the 50s to lower 60s with periodic rain and showers. South of the boundary, we jump into the 70s with increasing humidity. Those factors, combined with an incoming mid level disturbance will spark a round of afternoon and evening thunder from west to east.



The more instability develops where the most sun comes out...mainly along and south of the MA pike. My biggest concern is for localized flooding with torrential downpours in any storms come through (thanks to an already saturated ground from all of our recent rain).  Obviously, lightning, brief gusty wind and small hail is possible in storms too - so keep an eye to the sky later on & remember, "when thunder roars, go indoors!"

And as always, tune in to NECN for live updates as warranted through the afternoon and evening.

Have a great Tuesday!
Danielle

Tim Kelley: Tropical Cyclone Andrea Track

Tropical Storm Andrea is soaking Florida and Georgia with flooding rain and Gale force wind. The cyclone will pass over land Thursday night, then be back near the coast of North Carolina Friday. The storm will then begin a transition from pure tropical storm, to extra-tropical, as it races from New Jersey to Nantucket Friday night. The impact on New England will be heavy rain and a period of Gale force wind near the coast. The heaviest rain, a quick 1"-3" will be left of the center, and the heaviest wind, 20-40 knots just to the right of the center. The worst will be over at sunrise Saturday.




That is not the entire story.
Even is there were no Andrea, New England would be in for another soaking rain storm.
We have a number of systems crossing New England.. If we add them all together, it comes out to a minor to moderate Nor'easter from Thursday Night to sunrise Saturday.
Rainfall amounts in excess of 2" are likely, with localized 3"-5" possible.
That means we will experience flash flooding and possible river flooding too (because it has been so wet lately).


Nest week looks equally as wet.
Turn off your irrigation system, save on our precious resource, H20.
There is plenty coming form the sky, right into mid June anyway.

We do get some sun this weekend.. most of the time, it WILL NOT be raining on Saturday and Sunday, but spot shower and storms are possible. Wind should be a non factor after Saturday Sunrise.

This Hurricane season we are especially vulnerable to hits. Andrea is shot across the bow.
More on this Subject coming to this blog Sunday

Tim Kelley: Severe Weather breaks the Heat Today

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 271
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1135 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
     NORTHERN CONNECTICUT
     MASSACHUSETTS
     MAINE
     NEW HAMPSHIRE
     EASTERN NEW YORK
     VERMONT

   * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1135 AM UNTIL
     800 PM EDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
     SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
     A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE

   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTHWEST OF
   HOULTON MAINE TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PITTSFIELD
   MASSACHUSETTS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

   &&

   DISCUSSION...SEVERAL BANDS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH LIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE NERN STATES.  STRONG HEATING OF A
   MOIST AIR MASS IS OCCURRING FROM ERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH
   MLCAPE EXPECTED TO REACH 1500 J/KG.  WSR-88D VAD WINDS INDICATE SWLY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OF 30-40 KT IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS ACROSS THE
   AREA PROVIDING FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS
   CONTAINING EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES WITH PRIMARY POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS.  THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBLE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
   TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF NRN/CENTRAL ME.

   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 24035.


   ...WEISS

Matt Noyes: Summer heat to be replaced by new, seasonable air Monday

While the strongest thunderstorms will generally be focused west of New England this weekend, the instigating cold front crosses New England on Monday with showers and thunder, ushering in new, fresh air that will be more typical of this time of year, and bring great weather conditions for most of next week.

 

10-Day Forecast:

Matt Noyes: Hot air, cool water at New England beaches Friday

The air is in mid-summer form, but water temperatures haven't arrived yet.

South Coast (click to enlarge):

Eastern Coast (click to enlarge):

Northern Beaches (click to enlarge):