Earlier today I posted a series of updates on Twitter pertaining to the upcoming weather pattern - one of great interest - in New England. I've strung those tweets together here for a "mini-blog post" of sorts, for those interested and not already following me at @MattNoyesNECN:
Lots of interesting things happening in the atmosphere with this pattern in the next few days. Meteorological fun began this morning with temperatures colder than -10 even in the Boston suburbs, while Worcester airport was in the 20s. Worcester airport was so much warmer this morning because there was warm air above our heads and if the airport is 1000 feet in elevation. Today's ample sunshine results in thermals from uneven heating… This makes wind. Wind mixes the warmer air down from aloft. Of course, it's not always warmer aloft. This somewhat backwards temperature set up is called an "inversion." Interestingly, the very process of bringing air down in altitude results in that air warming and drying. That's why we are already melting!
The incoming disturbance for tonight and Friday will wait until after your evening plans before it spreads in from west to east. Incredibly, the amount of available warm air aloft and now at the surface means that some raindrops will fall tonight near the south coast. For much of New England, however, enough cold air remains that bursts of snow develop after midnight and continue Into the AM commute Friday. For many, I am Friday AM bursts of snow will result in some slick road conditions. Although I expect Friday a.m. snow to fall both in pockets and to be no more than a couple inches, the commute timing is unfortunate.
Things turn even more interesting by Friday mid day into the evening as energy shifts to the Gulf of Maine. Essentially, transition of energy overhead means a developing storm center right over us on Fri! At some point, it has to become organized. Gradual organization of the storm, and its instigating energy over us, likely means bursts of snow in eastern MA linger past mid day. By Fri eve strengthening storm center in the Gulf of Maine will shift focus of heaviest snow to Route 16 NH points east through Maine. As the developing storm grows legs Fri night into Sat, snow will fall heavily in much of Maine. Over a foot expected from Bangor to Houlton. Communities in central Maine and the mid Coast, including Augusta, Lewiston likely to see somewhere around 8 or 10 inches through Saturday. Southern ME all the way thru Portland is more interesting case. How much warm air will you see? My thought is rain mix if any will be brief. At this point, I like a solution that ramps southern Maine up from four in Kittery to six at Portland to eight at Windham. As the storm grows in the Gulf of Maine eastern New Hampshire into Northeast Massachusetts will see at least some snow showers into Sat AM. Because of the expectation of continuing snow showers, Northeast Mass-primarily Essex County-has been placed in 3 inches. The immediate Boston metropolitan area should pick up a few inches between Friday, Friday night, Saturday morning. I will say that there is some uncertainty from Boston through Essex County because the rate of storm development overhead is critical. South of the Massachusetts Turnpike my expectation is 1 or 2 inches, mostly in bursts Friday morning, with a rain mix near the south coast.
Saturday, aside from the aforementioned snow showers & some snow in Maine, brings very cold air. Highs in the teens. singles north. The issue of storm potential Sunday night into Monday is very different. It's not about rate of intensification it's about storm track. I continue to carry a chance of snow in the forecast for Monday. One viewer wrote and asked if that is "CYA." It's not. If you believe the average of the solutions, then Monday is out to sea. The devil right now is in the details. The average "out to sea" solution that is offered is the product of a few very strong out to sea outliers that are pulling the average east. At present, a larger number of solutions actually favor a track closer to the coast Monday. Therefore, it is unwise to write the storm off. Regardless, anything Sunday night into Monday will pale in comparison to what we've just been through. The jetstream pattern is progressive. Progressive steering flow means storm system that develops has to keep moving.This would limit potential accumulations even in a close track. It's worth noting, the development of the Gulf of Maine storm Saturday and wind in its wake is what keeps Monday's flow so progressive. The bigger Saturday's storm is, the faster and farther south Monday's steering flow will be.
Below is my video forecast from Thursday, laying all of this out: