A slow-moving storm center is migrating northward up the Eastern Seaboard Tuesday, chock full of tropical moisture fresh off of dropping up to 3” of rain in parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
By the time the storm arrives to New England, rainfall amounts will be significantly less, but a moderate rainfall and a period of gusty winds is expected for the region.
Rain showers beginning at the South Coast Tuesday midday continue spreading north through the Massachusetts Turnpike by dinnertime, resulting in evening commute slow-downs south of the Pike in Southern New England.
Showers expand to the New Hampshire border later Tuesday evening, then steady rain falls overnight Tuesday night, heaviest in Central and Southern New England through Wednesday morning, where half an inch to an inch of rain is likely before tapering to leftover showers by Wednesday afternoon. Though a few localized rainfall amounts may reach over an inch, flooding is not expected in New England.
All the while, winds will be strengthening for New England, and particularly at the coastline. Though Tropical Storm Kate is passing well southeast of New England, neither this rain nor wind is a product of that sea-bound storm – rather, our wind will be increasing thanks to the difference in barometric pressure between a departing high pressure (fair weather) cell, and the incoming, relatively weak East Coast storm.
An east-northeast wind will freshen ahead of the approaching storm center to 35 mph gusts along the south coast of Connecticut Tuesday evening, and a Wind Advisory has been posted for the Eastern shores of Massachusetts overnight Tuesday night to late Wednesday afternoon, when northeast wind gusts may reach 45 mph at times.
Though not enough for widespread or even widely scattered damage, these wind gusts will be enough to bring down a few branches or trees considering Southeast MA still has some foliage and will have a recently wet ground – as such, a few power outages can’t be ruled out.
With any coastal storm, concern can shift to the coastline and potential for coastal flooding – that’s not a concern this time around. Low tidal levels will mean even our Wednesday late-morning high tide is unlikely to produce anything more than splashover in typically vulnerable areas.
Of course, through it all, a northeast wind that becomes north, combined with lots of clouds, will mean Wednesday high temperatures are unlikely to exceed the 40s for most communities.