At this point, I'm forecasting an ocean storm to miss New England Thanksgiving week, with milder temperatures throughout the Northeast United States for the holiday, rising around or slightly above normal high temperatures for the date.
Thereafter, there is disagreement on how the weather pattern will evolve among weather guidance - vast difference between a continuation of warming weather in the East, or sharply colder air digging south from Canada. At this early juncture, I'm in favor of a solution that brings much colder air into New England and most of the Northeast post-Thanksgiving, and locks that cool air in place for several days, raising the likelihood of mountain snow showers in the weekend after Thanksgiving. The key to how the weather pattern evolves hinges upon energy ejecting from the Aleutian Islands of Alaska, and how that cold air and energy affects the "downstream" weather pattern - across the Lower 48. My anticipation is that the bulk of this energy remains with the Aleutian storm, meaning a warm ridge builds over the Central US, but a cool trough, or dip in the jet stream, develops over the Northeast. Obviously, I'll revisit this next week, but let's be in the mindset for some cold air the weekend after Thanksgiving.
