David Ball, longtime Scituate Massachusetts coastal resident and town historian, offers this advice for those of us riding out the first Nor'Easter of 2014.
Thank you David!
January 1, 2014
Hi All,
For Cedar Point residents: This is another weather update. It may be the last one we send out before the onset of the nor'easter.
The National Weather Service is saying that near blizzard conditions may occur at the height of the storm tomorrow night and travel might be nearly impossible. Also, people leaving must do so well in advance of a high tide (such as four hours before).
One of the concerns must be frozen pipes. It will be brutally cold on Friday night into Saturday.
Weather Stories
A couple of terms to know:
The term blizzard is not to be confused with coastal flooding. Blizzard relates to visibility in snow and wind.
Astronomical tides do not mean a huge tide. It is the predicted tide height without any influence of a storm. Pay attention to what the forecast is for surge. Right now the predication is for at least two feet about the predicted tide on Friday. Moderate coastal flooding is expected. That means that waves will come over the walls along the oceanfront and hit houses. Shutters should now be in place.
The tide of biggest concern is around noon on Friday.
Go to the Scituate Coastal Coalition web site for weather related links. The address is:
<a href="http://scituatecoastalcoalition.org/very_important_links">http://scituatecoastalcoalition.org/</a>
Pasted below is the latest coastal flooding statement from the National Weather Service.
Dave Ball
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND THE RELATIVELY LONG DURATION AND FETCH OF NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR MULTIPLE HIGH TIDE CYCLES. WE DECIDED TO ADDRESS THE HEADLINES WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ONLY THE MIDDAY THURSDAY HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING DURING EITHER OF THE THURSDAY NIGHT OR MIDDAY FRIDAY HIGH TIDES. 01/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR WINDS TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTH BEFORE THE FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. WHILE THIS WILL REDUCE THE RISK OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR MOST OF THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COASTLINE... THERE IS STILL A RISK FOR MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF BOSTON INTO SANDWICH. USING BOSTON AS AN INDEX...NOTE THAT ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE VERY HIGH WITH 12.2 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AT BOSTON THURSDAY AND FRI...AT 11:22 AM AND 12:15 PM RESPECTIVELY. THERE ALSO IS A 10.9 FOOT HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS USUAL IN THESE SITUATIONS...HAVE GONE ABOVE BOTH THE ETSS AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE BASED ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN RECOGNITION. BELIEVE ENOUGH GRADIENT AND FETCH TO SUPPORT A STORM SURGE OF 0.5 TO 0.75 FT MIDDAY THURSDAY...INCREASING TO 1.0 TO 2.0 FT FOR BOTH THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MIDDAY TIDES...HIGHEST S OF BOSTON. THE SURGE MAY ACTUALLY MAX OUT 2 TO 3 FT S OF BOSTON FRIDAY MORNING...BUT DURING THE LOW TIDE CYCLE. SHOULD WINDS NOT SHIFT NORTH AS QUICKLY AS WE EXPECT FRIDAY MORNING...MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING WOULD RESULT. SEAS JUST OFFSHORE ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ABOUT 15 FT DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE AND 15 TO 20 FT AT THE TIME OF THE MIDDAY FRIDAY HIGH TIDE. THE FRIDAY MIDDAY SEAS WILL CONTAIN LONGER PERIOD SWELLS THAT BRING MORE ENERGY TO THE SHORE. IN SUMMARY...THIS IS ALL LIKELY TO RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE MIDDAY THURSDAY HIGH TIDE...AND MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE. AT THIS TIME FOR THE MIDDAY FRIDAY HIGH TIDE...WE ARE PROJECTING MINOR TO ISOLATED MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING NORTH OF BOSTON AND AREAS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING SOUTH OF BOSTON. THERE REMAINS A RISK...ALBEIT LOOKING LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...OF POCKETS OF MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING FROM HULL THROUGH SANDWICH AND NANTUCKET...ESPECIALLY IF THIS STORM SHOULD END UP BEING JUST A TAD SLOWER PULLING AWAY FROM OUR COASTLINE. ALL VULNERABLE MA EAST-FACING SHORELINES WILL HAVE A RISK OF SOME BEACH EROSION GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS AND WAVE ACTION OVER SUCCESSIVE TIDES. THE AREAS OF COASTLINE PRONE TO MORE SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION INCLUDE THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY COAST...THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CAPE INCLUDING SANDWICH...THE OUTER CAPE OCEANSIDE AND THE EAST SIDE OF NANTUCKET. NOT EXPECTING ANY COASTAL FLOODING PROBLEMS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST GIVEN WIND DIRECTION AND EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS STORM.
-- End Changed Discussion
<pre>COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
403 AM EST THU JAN 2 2014
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE HIGH TIDE LATE TONIGHT AND THE
MIDDAY FRIDAY HIGH TIDE...
...MOST SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
MIDDAY FRIDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON...
MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024-021715-
/O.UPG.KBOX.CF.A.0001.140102T2100Z-140103T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.CF.W.0001.140102T2100Z-140103T2000Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.CF.Y.0001.140102T1500Z-140102T2100Z/
EASTERN ESSEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-NANTUCKET MA-
403 AM EST THU JAN 2 2014
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
3 PM EST FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
3 PM EST FRIDAY. THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* LOCATION...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COASTLINE.
* COASTAL FLOODING...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
TODAY/S MIDDAY HIGH TIDE AS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGH TIDE LATE
TONIGHT AS WELL AS FRIDAY/S MIDDAY HIGH TIDE...AS MINOR WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ARE ANTICIPATED. THE
BIGGEST CONCERN FOR SIGNIFICANT MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS
SOUTH OF BOSTON DURING THE MIDDAY FRIDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
* TIMING...TODAY/S MIDDAY HIGH TIDE...LATE TONIGHT/S HIGH TIDE...AND
MIDDAY FRIDAY HIGH CYCLES.
* IMPACTS...VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS WILL BE FLOODED WITHIN A FEW
HOURS OF HIGH TIDE AND PROBABLY IMPASSABLE AT TIMES. BASEMENT
FLOODING IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY FOR TYPICALLY VULNERABLE HOMES.
AGAIN...THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR SIGNIFICANT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING IS SOUTH OF BOSTON DURING THE MIDDAY FRIDAY HIGH TIDE
CYCLE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OF
THE MOST VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR BASEMENTS DUE TO THE
HEIGHT OF STORM TIDE OR WAVE SPLASHOVER. THE MAJORITY OF ROADS
REMAIN PASSABLE WITH ONLY ISOLATED CLOSURES. HERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO LIFE AND ANY IMPACT ON PROPERTY IS MINIMAL.
&&
&&
&&
ALL TIDE HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.
TIME OF HIGH TOTAL TIDES ARE APPROXIMATE TO THE NEAREST HOUR.
NEWBURYPORT
TOTAL ASTRO
TIDE DAY/TIME TIDE SURGE WAVES FLOOD
/FT/ /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ CATEGORY
------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ----------
11.1 02/12 PM 10.1 1.0 5-6 MINOR
10.2 03/12 AM 8.7 1.5 9 NONE
11.0 03/01 PM 10.1 0.9 8-9 MINOR
9.0 04/01 AM 9.0 0.0 4-5 NONE
9.8 04/02 PM 9.8 0.0 3 NONE
GLOUCESTER HARBOR
TOTAL ASTRO
TIDE DAY/TIME TIDE SURGE WAVES FLOOD
/FT/ /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ CATEGORY
------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ----------
12.2 02/11 AM 11.1 1.1 5-7 MINOR
11.5 03/12 AM 9.8 1.7 16-18 MINOR
12.2 03/12 PM 11.2 1.0 16-20 MINOR
10.0 04/01 AM 10.0 0.0 5-7 NONE
11.0 04/01 PM 11.0 0.0 3-4 NONE
REVERE
TOTAL ASTRO
TIDE DAY/TIME TIDE SURGE WAVES FLOOD
/FT/ /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ CATEGORY
------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ----------
13.0 02/11 AM 11.8 1.2 4-6 MINOR
12.3 03/12 AM 10.5 1.8 9-10 MINOR-MDT
12.8 03/12 PM 11.9 0.9 8-9 MODERATE
10.7 04/01 AM 10.7 0.0 4-5 NONE
11.7 04/01 PM 11.7 0.0 3 MINOR
BOSTON HARBOR
TOTAL ASTRO
TIDE DAY/TIME TIDE SURGE WAVES FLOOD
/FT/ /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ CATEGORY
------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ----------
13.1 02/11 AM 11.9 1.2 2 MINOR
12.4 03/12 AM 10.6 1.8 2 MINOR
12.8 03/12 PM 11.9 0.9 2 MINOR
10.8 04/01 AM 10.8 0.0 1 NONE
11.7 04/01 PM 11.7 0.0 1 NONE
SCITUATE
TOTAL ASTRO
TIDE DAY/TIME TIDE SURGE WAVES FLOOD
/FT/ /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ CATEGORY
------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ----------
12.6 02/11 AM 11.4 1.2 4-10 MINOR-MDT
12.0 03/12 AM 10.2 1.8 15-18 MINOR-MDT
12.5 03/12 PM 11.5 1.0 17-20 MODERATE
10.4 04/01 AM 10.4 0.0 5-7 NONE
11.3 04/01 PM 11.3 0.0 3 MINOR
SANDWICH HARBOR
TOTAL ASTRO
TIDE DAY/TIME TIDE SURGE WAVES FLOOD
/FT/ /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ CATEGORY
------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ----------
12.2 02/11 AM 11.0 1.2 3-5 MINOR
12.1 03/12 AM 9.9 2.2 7 MINOR
12.5 03/12 PM 11.1 1.4 8-9 MINOR-MDT
10.0 04/01 AM 10.0 0.0 2-3 NONE
10.8 04/01 PM 10.8 0.0 2 NONE
PROVINCETOWN HARBOR
TOTAL ASTRO
TIDE DAY/TIME TIDE SURGE WAVES FLOOD
/FT/ /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ CATEGORY
------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ----------
12.6 02/11 AM 11.6 1.0 3-5 MINOR
12.3 03/12 AM 10.5 1.8 7 MINOR
12.8 03/12 PM 11.6 1.2 8 MINOR-MDT
10.6 04/01 AM 10.6 0.0 3-4 NONE
11.4 04/01 PM 11.4 0.0 2 NONE
CHATHAM - EAST COAST
TOTAL ASTRO
TIDE DAY/TIME TIDE SURGE WAVES FLOOD
/FT/ /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ CATEGORY
------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ----------
6.5 02/12 PM 5.4 1.1 3-8 NONE
6.3 03/01 AM 4.3 2.0 12-13 NONE
6.4 03/01 PM 5.3 1.1 12-13 NONE
4.4 04/02 AM 4.4 0.0 6-7 NONE
5.2 04/02 PM 5.2 0.0 4 NONE
CHATHAM - SOUTH COAST
TOTAL ASTRO
TIDE DAY/TIME TIDE SURGE WAVES FLOOD
/FT/ /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ CATEGORY
------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ----------
6.4 02/12 PM 5.3 1.1 2-3 NONE
5.7 03/01 AM 4.1 1.6 5 NONE
6.1 03/01 PM 5.2 0.9 5 NONE
4.3 04/02 AM 4.3 0.0 3 NONE
5.1 04/02 PM 5.1 0.0 2-3 NONE
BUZZARDS BAY - WOODS HOLE
TOTAL ASTRO
TIDE DAY/TIME TIDE SURGE WAVES FLOOD
/FT/ /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ CATEGORY
------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ----------
3.7 02/08 AM 2.9 0.8 1-2 NONE
3.1 02/09 PM 2.1 1.0 2 NONE
3.5 03/09 AM 2.8 0.7 2 NONE
2.1 03/10 PM 2.1 0.0 1-2 NONE
2.7 04/10 AM 2.6 0.1 1 NONE
2.1 04/11 PM 2.1 0.0 1 NONE
WINGS NECK
TOTAL ASTRO
TIDE DAY/TIME TIDE SURGE WAVES FLOOD
/FT/ /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ CATEGORY
------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ----------
6.1 02/09 AM 5.3 0.8 1-2 NONE
5.2 02/10 PM 4.4 0.8 2 NONE
6.0 03/10 AM 5.3 0.7 2 NONE
4.4 03/11 PM 4.4 0.0 1 NONE
5.3 04/11 AM 5.1 0.2 1 NONE
4.4 04/11 PM 4.3 0.1 1 NONE
NANTUCKET HARBOR
TOTAL ASTRO
TIDE DAY/TIME TIDE SURGE WAVES FLOOD
/FT/ /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ CATEGORY
------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ----------
5.2 02/12 PM 4.2 1.0 3 MINOR
4.8 03/01 AM 3.2 1.6 5 MINOR
5.6 03/01 PM 4.2 1.4 5 MINOR
3.4 04/02 AM 3.4 0.0 2-3 NONE
4.0 04/02 PM 4.0 0.0 2-3 NONE
NANTUCKET EAST COAST - EROSION IMPACTS
TOTAL ASTRO
TIDE DAY/TIME TIDE SURGE WAVES FLOOD
/FT/ /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ CATEGORY
------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ----------
5.6 02/12 PM 4.5 1.1 3-7 NONE
5.2 03/01 AM 3.4 1.8 10 NONE
5.7 03/01 PM 4.4 1.3 10 MINOR
3.5 04/02 AM 3.5 0.0 5-6 NONE
4.3 04/02 PM 4.3 0.0 4 NONE
NANTUCKET - MADAKET AREA EROSION IMPACTS
TOTAL ASTRO
TIDE DAY/TIME TIDE SURGE WAVES FLOOD
/FT/ /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ CATEGORY
------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ----------
5.0 02/12 PM 3.9 1.1 3-4 NONE
4.1 03/01 AM 2.9 1.2 5-6 NONE
4.5 03/01 PM 3.8 0.7 5-6 NONE
3.1 04/02 AM 3.1 0.0 2-3 NONE
3.7 04/02 PM 3.7 0.0 2-3 NONE
$$
FRANK
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<pre>URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 AM EST THU JAN 2 2014
...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH DANGEROUSLY
LOW WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND CAPE COD TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
MAZ019-022-021700-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WS.W.0001.140102T0900Z-140103T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.BZ.W.0001.140102T0852Z-140103T1600Z/
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLYMOUTH...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...
PROVINCETOWN
352 AM EST THU JAN 2 2014
...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER
STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
* LOCATIONS...EASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND BARNSTABLE COUNTY IN
MASSACHUSETTS.
* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS.
* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 14 INCHES. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY.
* TIMING...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WHEN SNOW MAY FALL AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS SNOW BECOMES
HEAVIER AND THE WINDS INCREASE. THIS WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AND TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AT
TIMES. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO DEVELOP FRIDAY
MORNING.
* WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A BLIZZARD WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLE FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME POOR WITH
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THOSE VENTURING OUTDOORS MAY
BECOME LOST OR DISORIENTED...SO PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE
ADVISED TO STAY INDOORS.</pre>