Blizzard Warning Eastern Massachusetts | NECN
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Blizzard Warning Eastern Massachusetts

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    NEWSLETTERS

    David Ball, longtime Scituate Massachusetts coastal resident and town historian, offers this advice for those of us riding out the first Nor'Easter of 2014.

    Thank you David!

    January 1, 2014

    Hi All,

    For Cedar Point residents: This is another weather update. It may be the last one we send out before the onset of the nor'easter.

    The National Weather Service is saying that near blizzard conditions may occur at the height of the storm tomorrow night and travel might be nearly impossible. Also, people leaving must do so well in advance of a high tide (such as four hours before).

    One of the concerns must be frozen pipes. It will be brutally cold on Friday night into Saturday.

    A couple of terms to know:

    The term blizzard is not to be confused with coastal flooding. Blizzard relates to visibility in snow and wind.

    Astronomical tides do not mean a huge tide. It is the predicted tide height without any influence of a storm. Pay attention to what the forecast is for surge. Right now the predication is for at least two feet about the predicted tide on Friday. Moderate coastal flooding is expected. That means that waves will come over the walls along the oceanfront and hit houses. Shutters should now be in place.

    The tide of biggest concern is around noon on Friday.

    Go to the Scituate Coastal Coalition web site for weather related links. The address is:
    <a href="http://scituatecoastalcoalition.org/very_important_links">http://scituatecoastalcoalition.org/</a>

    Pasted below is the latest coastal flooding statement from the National Weather Service.
    Dave Ball

    TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

    -- Changed Discussion --
    THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND THE RELATIVELY LONG DURATION AND FETCH OF NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR MULTIPLE HIGH TIDE CYCLES. WE DECIDED TO ADDRESS THE HEADLINES WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ONLY THE MIDDAY THURSDAY HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING DURING EITHER OF THE THURSDAY NIGHT OR MIDDAY FRIDAY HIGH TIDES. 01/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR WINDS TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTH BEFORE THE FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. WHILE THIS WILL REDUCE THE RISK OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR MOST OF THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COASTLINE... THERE IS STILL A RISK FOR MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF BOSTON INTO SANDWICH. USING BOSTON AS AN INDEX...NOTE THAT ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE VERY HIGH WITH 12.2 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AT BOSTON THURSDAY AND FRI...AT 11:22 AM AND 12:15 PM RESPECTIVELY. THERE ALSO IS A 10.9 FOOT HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS USUAL IN THESE SITUATIONS...HAVE GONE ABOVE BOTH THE ETSS AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE BASED ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN RECOGNITION. BELIEVE ENOUGH GRADIENT AND FETCH TO SUPPORT A STORM SURGE OF 0.5 TO 0.75 FT MIDDAY THURSDAY...INCREASING TO 1.0 TO 2.0 FT FOR BOTH THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MIDDAY TIDES...HIGHEST S OF BOSTON. THE SURGE MAY ACTUALLY MAX OUT 2 TO 3 FT S OF BOSTON FRIDAY MORNING...BUT DURING THE LOW TIDE CYCLE. SHOULD WINDS NOT SHIFT NORTH AS QUICKLY AS WE EXPECT FRIDAY MORNING...MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING WOULD RESULT. SEAS JUST OFFSHORE ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ABOUT 15 FT DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE AND 15 TO 20 FT AT THE TIME OF THE MIDDAY FRIDAY HIGH TIDE. THE FRIDAY MIDDAY SEAS WILL CONTAIN LONGER PERIOD SWELLS THAT BRING MORE ENERGY TO THE SHORE. IN SUMMARY...THIS IS ALL LIKELY TO RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE MIDDAY THURSDAY HIGH TIDE...AND MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE. AT THIS TIME FOR THE MIDDAY FRIDAY HIGH TIDE...WE ARE PROJECTING MINOR TO ISOLATED MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING NORTH OF BOSTON AND AREAS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING SOUTH OF BOSTON. THERE REMAINS A RISK...ALBEIT LOOKING LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...OF POCKETS OF MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING FROM HULL THROUGH SANDWICH AND NANTUCKET...ESPECIALLY IF THIS STORM SHOULD END UP BEING JUST A TAD SLOWER PULLING AWAY FROM OUR COASTLINE. ALL VULNERABLE MA EAST-FACING SHORELINES WILL HAVE A RISK OF SOME BEACH EROSION GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS AND WAVE ACTION OVER SUCCESSIVE TIDES. THE AREAS OF COASTLINE PRONE TO MORE SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION INCLUDE THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY COAST...THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CAPE INCLUDING SANDWICH...THE OUTER CAPE OCEANSIDE AND THE EAST SIDE OF NANTUCKET. NOT EXPECTING ANY COASTAL FLOODING PROBLEMS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST GIVEN WIND DIRECTION AND EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS STORM.
    -- End Changed Discussion
    <pre>COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
    403 AM EST THU JAN 2 2014

    ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE...

    ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE HIGH TIDE LATE TONIGHT AND THE
    MIDDAY FRIDAY HIGH TIDE...

    ...MOST SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
    MIDDAY FRIDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON...

    MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024-021715-
    /O.UPG.KBOX.CF.A.0001.140102T2100Z-140103T2000Z/
    /O.NEW.KBOX.CF.W.0001.140102T2100Z-140103T2000Z/
    /O.CON.KBOX.CF.Y.0001.140102T1500Z-140102T2100Z/
    EASTERN ESSEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
    EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-NANTUCKET MA-
    403 AM EST THU JAN 2 2014

    ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS
    MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
    ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
    3 PM EST FRIDAY...

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
    FLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
    3 PM EST FRIDAY. THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

    * LOCATION...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COASTLINE.

    * COASTAL FLOODING...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
      TODAY/S MIDDAY HIGH TIDE AS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
      A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGH TIDE LATE
      TONIGHT AS WELL AS FRIDAY/S MIDDAY HIGH TIDE...AS MINOR WITH
      POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ARE ANTICIPATED. THE
      BIGGEST CONCERN FOR SIGNIFICANT MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS
      SOUTH OF BOSTON DURING THE MIDDAY FRIDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

    * TIMING...TODAY/S MIDDAY HIGH TIDE...LATE TONIGHT/S HIGH TIDE...AND
      MIDDAY FRIDAY HIGH CYCLES.

    * IMPACTS...VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS WILL BE FLOODED WITHIN A FEW
      HOURS OF HIGH TIDE AND PROBABLY IMPASSABLE AT TIMES. BASEMENT
      FLOODING IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY FOR TYPICALLY VULNERABLE HOMES.
      AGAIN...THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR SIGNIFICANT MODERATE COASTAL
      FLOODING IS SOUTH OF BOSTON DURING THE MIDDAY FRIDAY HIGH TIDE
      CYCLE.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OF
    THE MOST VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR BASEMENTS DUE TO THE
    HEIGHT OF STORM TIDE OR WAVE SPLASHOVER. THE MAJORITY OF ROADS
    REMAIN PASSABLE WITH ONLY ISOLATED CLOSURES.  HERE IS NO
    SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO LIFE AND ANY IMPACT ON PROPERTY IS MINIMAL.

    &amp;&amp;

    &amp;&amp;

    &amp;&amp;

    ALL TIDE HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.
    TIME OF HIGH TOTAL TIDES ARE APPROXIMATE TO THE NEAREST HOUR.

    NEWBURYPORT

       TOTAL                ASTRO
        TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
        /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
      -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
        11.1    02/12 PM    10.1      1.0      5-6      MINOR
        10.2    03/12 AM     8.7      1.5       9        NONE
        11.0    03/01 PM    10.1      0.9      8-9      MINOR
         9.0    04/01 AM     9.0      0.0      4-5       NONE
         9.8    04/02 PM     9.8      0.0       3        NONE

    GLOUCESTER HARBOR

       TOTAL                ASTRO
        TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
        /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
      -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
        12.2    02/11 AM    11.1      1.1      5-7      MINOR
        11.5    03/12 AM     9.8      1.7     16-18     MINOR
        12.2    03/12 PM    11.2      1.0     16-20     MINOR
        10.0    04/01 AM    10.0      0.0      5-7       NONE
        11.0    04/01 PM    11.0      0.0      3-4       NONE

    REVERE

       TOTAL                ASTRO
        TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
        /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
      -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
        13.0    02/11 AM    11.8      1.2      4-6      MINOR
        12.3    03/12 AM    10.5      1.8      9-10    MINOR-MDT
        12.8    03/12 PM    11.9      0.9      8-9     MODERATE
        10.7    04/01 AM    10.7      0.0      4-5       NONE
        11.7    04/01 PM    11.7      0.0       3       MINOR

    BOSTON HARBOR

       TOTAL                ASTRO
        TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
        /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
      -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
        13.1    02/11 AM    11.9      1.2       2       MINOR
        12.4    03/12 AM    10.6      1.8       2       MINOR
        12.8    03/12 PM    11.9      0.9       2       MINOR
        10.8    04/01 AM    10.8      0.0       1        NONE
        11.7    04/01 PM    11.7      0.0       1        NONE

    SCITUATE

       TOTAL                ASTRO
        TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
        /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
      -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
        12.6    02/11 AM    11.4      1.2      4-10    MINOR-MDT
        12.0    03/12 AM    10.2      1.8     15-18    MINOR-MDT
        12.5    03/12 PM    11.5      1.0     17-20    MODERATE
        10.4    04/01 AM    10.4      0.0      5-7       NONE
        11.3    04/01 PM    11.3      0.0       3       MINOR

    SANDWICH HARBOR

       TOTAL                ASTRO
        TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
        /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
      -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
        12.2    02/11 AM    11.0      1.2      3-5      MINOR
        12.1    03/12 AM     9.9      2.2       7       MINOR
        12.5    03/12 PM    11.1      1.4      8-9     MINOR-MDT
        10.0    04/01 AM    10.0      0.0      2-3       NONE
        10.8    04/01 PM    10.8      0.0       2        NONE

    PROVINCETOWN HARBOR

       TOTAL                ASTRO
        TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
        /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
      -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
        12.6    02/11 AM    11.6      1.0      3-5      MINOR
        12.3    03/12 AM    10.5      1.8       7       MINOR
        12.8    03/12 PM    11.6      1.2       8      MINOR-MDT
        10.6    04/01 AM    10.6      0.0      3-4       NONE
        11.4    04/01 PM    11.4      0.0       2        NONE

    CHATHAM - EAST COAST

       TOTAL                ASTRO
        TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
        /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
      -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
         6.5    02/12 PM     5.4      1.1      3-8       NONE
         6.3    03/01 AM     4.3      2.0     12-13      NONE
         6.4    03/01 PM     5.3      1.1     12-13      NONE
         4.4    04/02 AM     4.4      0.0      6-7       NONE
         5.2    04/02 PM     5.2      0.0       4        NONE

    CHATHAM - SOUTH COAST

       TOTAL                ASTRO
        TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
        /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
      -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
         6.4    02/12 PM     5.3      1.1      2-3       NONE
         5.7    03/01 AM     4.1      1.6       5        NONE
         6.1    03/01 PM     5.2      0.9       5        NONE
         4.3    04/02 AM     4.3      0.0       3        NONE
         5.1    04/02 PM     5.1      0.0      2-3       NONE

    BUZZARDS BAY - WOODS HOLE

       TOTAL                ASTRO
        TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
        /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
      -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
         3.7    02/08 AM     2.9      0.8      1-2       NONE
         3.1    02/09 PM     2.1      1.0       2        NONE
         3.5    03/09 AM     2.8      0.7       2        NONE
         2.1    03/10 PM     2.1      0.0      1-2       NONE
         2.7    04/10 AM     2.6      0.1       1        NONE
         2.1    04/11 PM     2.1      0.0       1        NONE

    WINGS NECK

       TOTAL                ASTRO
        TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
        /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
      -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
         6.1    02/09 AM     5.3      0.8      1-2       NONE
         5.2    02/10 PM     4.4      0.8       2        NONE
         6.0    03/10 AM     5.3      0.7       2        NONE
         4.4    03/11 PM     4.4      0.0       1        NONE
         5.3    04/11 AM     5.1      0.2       1        NONE
         4.4    04/11 PM     4.3      0.1       1        NONE

    NANTUCKET HARBOR

       TOTAL                ASTRO
        TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
        /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
      -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
         5.2    02/12 PM     4.2      1.0       3       MINOR
         4.8    03/01 AM     3.2      1.6       5       MINOR
         5.6    03/01 PM     4.2      1.4       5       MINOR
         3.4    04/02 AM     3.4      0.0      2-3       NONE
         4.0    04/02 PM     4.0      0.0      2-3       NONE

    NANTUCKET EAST COAST - EROSION IMPACTS

       TOTAL                ASTRO
        TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
        /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
      -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
         5.6    02/12 PM     4.5      1.1      3-7       NONE
         5.2    03/01 AM     3.4      1.8       10       NONE
         5.7    03/01 PM     4.4      1.3       10      MINOR
         3.5    04/02 AM     3.5      0.0      5-6       NONE
         4.3    04/02 PM     4.3      0.0       4        NONE

    NANTUCKET - MADAKET AREA EROSION IMPACTS

       TOTAL                ASTRO
        TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
        /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
      -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
         5.0    02/12 PM     3.9      1.1      3-4       NONE
         4.1    03/01 AM     2.9      1.2      5-6       NONE
         4.5    03/01 PM     3.8      0.7      5-6       NONE
         3.1    04/02 AM     3.1      0.0      2-3       NONE
         3.7    04/02 PM     3.7      0.0      2-3       NONE

    FRANK

    FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
    <a href="http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/">WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON</a>

    YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.BOSTON.GOV

    YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT
    <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSBoston">@NWSBOSTON</a></pre>
    <pre>URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
    352 AM EST THU JAN 2 2014

    ...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH DANGEROUSLY
    LOW WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

    ...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
    PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND CAPE COD TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...

    MAZ019-022-021700-
    /O.CAN.KBOX.WS.W.0001.140102T0900Z-140103T1500Z/
    /O.NEW.KBOX.BZ.W.0001.140102T0852Z-140103T1600Z/
    EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLYMOUTH...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...
    PROVINCETOWN
    352 AM EST THU JAN 2 2014

    ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY...
    ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
    WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER
    STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

    * LOCATIONS...EASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND BARNSTABLE COUNTY IN
      MASSACHUSETTS.

    * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING
      AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
      TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN WHITEOUT
      CONDITIONS.

    * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 14 INCHES. LOCALLY
      HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY.

    * TIMING...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE
      HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
      MORNING...WHEN SNOW MAY FALL AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

    * IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY TODAY.
      CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS SNOW BECOMES
      HEAVIER AND THE WINDS INCREASE. THIS WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD
      CONDITIONS AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WHITEOUT
      CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AND TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AT
      TIMES. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO DEVELOP FRIDAY
      MORNING.

    * WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

    * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    A BLIZZARD WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT
    GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLE FALLING AND/OR
    BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME POOR WITH
    WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES.  THOSE VENTURING OUTDOORS MAY
    BECOME LOST OR DISORIENTED...SO PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE
    ADVISED TO STAY INDOORS.</pre>
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