Monday Morning Admission
If this were snow, I would have forecast 15"-30", we would have got 2"-15". The plume of Tropical Moisture came up to CT and RI/MA south coast and then took a right out to sea. Our dewpoint is closer to 60 than 70, this is a huge difference. Yesterday the flooding in New York City happened with a dewpoint in the low 70s. Though the storm is not over, and the models are trying to bring back the tropical connection on Wednesday, the Flooding Forecast for today is a bust.
Sunday update to Saturday post (it's easier this way) ;
This is day one of a three day coastal storm, or series of storms. None of these storms is easy to forecast (a redundant understatement).
There are many players on the weather map today. We have a primary low with origins near Baja California in New York. We have a stalled front south of New England with a series of low pressure waves riding along just to our south. One of these lows has moisture from the old TD#5 that has been going round and round near the gulf for the last two weeks. The Baja low and the old TD# 5 are responsible for flooding rains of 5"-15" in a huge part of the U.S. from Arizona to Illinois and Louisiana to South Carolina. We have a high latitude blocking pattern in eastern Canada with stalled high pressure strengthening in Quebec. The net result of this international potpourri of weather features results in slow moving bands of torrential downpours oriented southeast to northwest across New England into Wednesday. Though the bands are slow moving, elements of rain with in the bands are moving fairlly quickly toward the west, even as the entire system is slowly moving to the east. Trying to forecast rainfall amounts and locations is near impossible. It's best we just watch the radar and call the play by play for a couple days. Our radar is a great tool to monitor rain placement. It's still possible that somewhere in New England gets 5"-10" of rain, but more likely is 2"-5" somewhere from southern Vermont into eastern Massachusetts.
At the coast we have wind coming onshore and increasing to 20-40 mph as the high to the north and the low to the south each get stronger. The full sturgeon moon Tuesday adds coastal erosion to the mix. Tides are not running as strong as the new moon a couple weeks ago. The high tides are roughly Midday and Midnight for the next few days. This sort of prolonged storm often causes more problems than named tropical storms that zip in and out.
Speaking of that, Hurricane Danielle should be near Bermuda in a week. Surf will be up for the next two weeks!
Droughts often end with flooding. This may be the case for parts of New England Monday. It does not take a named tropical storm to bring tropical downpours. The energy from the tropics more often than not is liquidated to the north by waves of low pressure than by whirling dervishes. We have waves of energy coming form near Cuba to New England Sunday Night into Tuesday. Rainfall amounts to 10 Inches are possible. Timing and placement of flooding is impossible to know ahead of time. For now enjoy a nice Saturday. Once the clouds thicken tonight, we may not see the sun again until Wednesday. The heaviest Rain should be Monday.