The rainiest weather in the last four weeks has been on Sunday's. Each week we have a new front with high pressure from Canada, with beautiful weather. Here we go again. Only this time the front has a history.
Four feet of snow in Deadwood South Dakota, an all time October record (beating 20" in 1919). Also an F-4 tornado in Wayne Nebraska, and another Tropical Cyclone (Karen) that went fizzle before reaching land. So this front has some juice. we are looking at a line of Thunderstorms with the Fro-Pa (Frontal Passage) Monday night. Followed by as strong a Canadian High Pressure system (1032 millibars).
Of course, the forecast is not cut & dry. For the third time in three weeks we are tracking storms with tropical characteristics threatening the eastern United States. Shown above, there is a system south of Bermuda drifting westward, and the remnant of Tropical Dud Karen drifting northeastward. There will be one or two powerful ocean storms on the south side of our next Canadian High Pressure system. Per advice from Chamber's of Commerce from 1997, I am going with the optimistic forecast of these systems staying at sea, as they have the last 3 weeks (though don't tell that to residents on south eastern Canada, where each of the previous storms have made land fall. The storm from last week went all the way to Greenland before bombing out (974 mb) and backing to Newfoundland. That one really blew my 7 day forecast for this past weekend. Usually when we have an October blizzard in South Dakota, the cyclonic flow pushes warm air into New England (Washington DC hit a record 90 over the weekend). But here in the northeast that backing Newfy storm sent yet another back door cold front pushed the temperature down to 48 degrees in Concord NH Sunday afternoon. Parts of Maine were in the 20s Sunday Morning! If this were winter we would have had an ice storm. And how about that rain, who would have thought Windsor Locks Connecticut would get 1.1" of rainfall!?
The weather sticks to no one's plan.
Just a few days ago, it looked like the upper low that caused the blizzard would take most of the week to pass New England, but now it looks like it opens up and races by, This is one reason I am optimistic headed toward Columbus Day weekend. No doubt there will be a storm.. My plan is to surf a great swell it will generate.. for the third week in a row.
Here is day 3 of last week's storm swell (remember the rumor of a Monday Nor'easter last week?) it missed by 00s of miles, just right for sunshine & surf.
Thank you Julie for these pictures from Eastham Weds Oct 2.
And thank you Herb Swanson of these photos (below) from Maine.
If my forecast holds, we will have similar views next weekend.
If not, I will come to your house and rake leaves. Thanks for reading.
Long Pond at Gorman Chairback AMC Lodge Greenville ME
Sam Woodman in Kennebunkport ME