Wednesday serves as a breather for New England and the Northeast as sun will return briefly, with tropical moisture shifting off the coast for a time. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression #16, expected to become Tropical Storm Nicole, is moving toward Florida, and will draw along the Eastern Seaboard on Thursday. Nicole may either be tropical or subtropical, but will not be well organized as she moves along and then into the East Coast. Therefore, it's important to think of her as two things: moisture and energy. The moisture will infuse an airmass already at 200% of normal water vapor content along the Atlantic Seaboard, nearly guaranteeing an extreme rainfall event with serious flooding, particularly for the Mid-Atlantic, where some rain amounts by week's end will near a foot. Urban areas in the line of fire include Raleigh, D.C., Baltimore and Philadelphia. New England will receive at least 2-4" of rain in many spots, though higher amounts cannot be ruled out if the same moisture focus in the Mid-Atlantic moves northward. At this point, it appears the heaviest rain in New England will be in Northwestern and Western New England, closest to an extreme rainfall axis in Upstate New York near a frontal boundary...though east of the front, damaging wind gusts would be possible Thursday night into early Friday. Again, it's important to realize the impact timeframe for New England is still far enough out that we may see the extreme rain axis here at home, which would significantly increase potential for impactful flooding. I'll keep you posted on our NECN weather team blog, my personal weather analysis page, my Twitter account, and my Facebook page.