Heavy cold air, combined with very cold ground, leaves us icy for a time this morning.
Drive with plenty of room in front, and walk like a penguin.
Part of being a weatherman is to make a forecast, then try and verifythe outcome. I have saved every forecast and verification made here atNECN since March of 1992. Prior to this I put in 4 years combinedforecasting in Vermont, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island. Totaled up,this makes 23 years of 'Trying to Get it Right'. Three decades in, and Istill see accurate forecasting is good only to about 48 hours out. Takethis storm for example.
As recently as 120 hours ago, our weather forecasting models (onwhich 90% of forecasts are based), this storm was expected to passbetween Bermuda and Nantucket on December 13th or so. In fact, it wasnot until about 96 hours ago that the storm was expected to be closeenough to southern New England to even get us with any snow or rain.But then a dramatic shift occurred, about 84 hours ago the modelsshowed a storm track much closer to New England's south coast. So allthe sudden we went from a track good for snow or nothing at all, to atrack of rain, perhaps snow inland. Then the next series of forecastmodels showed progressively west and northward corrections, to a stormthat is now expected to pass over Montreal late tonight. This is anadjustment of nearly 1000 miles!
This kind of bust is not rare, and those who believe long range climate forecasts are any better, are fooling themselves.
While forecast busts are hugely frustrating, they can also bring pleasant surprises.
I was quite happy with the unexpected two feet of snow in Vermont last Tuesday. We missed that one from within 48 hours!
So do not worry if you see no weather you want in the seven dayforecast.. it will likely change. For example I see the new NAMforecast model is calling for 3" of snow in Andover MA tomorrow evening:)
Despite forecasts of the Atlantic Oscillation (AO) to turn positive, itremains off the charts negative. This is North Atlantic Blocking sostrong that low are forced to our west. Once again it is colder andsnowy in Atlanta (28), than Boston (52). Cold air will returnTuesday. Snow will again fall in the mountains of VT, NH, and WesternME (hopefully with surprising totals similar to last week. But onceagain, we also see warm air from the north Atlantic retrograding backinto Maine, so we may get rain in Northern Maine, while it snows inVermont by late Weds. The storm that was The Blizzard That Blasted TheMetrodome, will stall over Maine as an upper low. A series of LowPressure centers along the warm/cold boundary off to our southeast willrotate in our direction all week. also a storm now coming ashore inWashington State (with Hawaiian Pineapple Connection) will bringanother snow to the Mid Atlantic by Friday, will that one turn northand get us next weekend. Yes, it should (based on old rule that saysthe latitude a storm comes onto the west coast, is the latitude it willbe neat when it goes off the east coast). I am still bullish for awhite Christmas in most of New England. There will be snowy surpriseshere this week.
Drive with plenty of room in front, and walk like a penguin.
Part of being a weatherman is to make a forecast, then try and verifythe outcome. I have saved every forecast and verification made here atNECN since March of 1992. Prior to this I put in 4 years combinedforecasting in Vermont, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island. Totaled up,this makes 23 years of 'Trying to Get it Right'. Three decades in, and Istill see accurate forecasting is good only to about 48 hours out. Takethis storm for example.
As recently as 120 hours ago, our weather forecasting models (onwhich 90% of forecasts are based), this storm was expected to passbetween Bermuda and Nantucket on December 13th or so. In fact, it wasnot until about 96 hours ago that the storm was expected to be closeenough to southern New England to even get us with any snow or rain.But then a dramatic shift occurred, about 84 hours ago the modelsshowed a storm track much closer to New England's south coast. So allthe sudden we went from a track good for snow or nothing at all, to atrack of rain, perhaps snow inland. Then the next series of forecastmodels showed progressively west and northward corrections, to a stormthat is now expected to pass over Montreal late tonight. This is anadjustment of nearly 1000 miles!
This kind of bust is not rare, and those who believe long range climate forecasts are any better, are fooling themselves.
While forecast busts are hugely frustrating, they can also bring pleasant surprises.
I was quite happy with the unexpected two feet of snow in Vermont last Tuesday. We missed that one from within 48 hours!
So do not worry if you see no weather you want in the seven dayforecast.. it will likely change. For example I see the new NAMforecast model is calling for 3" of snow in Andover MA tomorrow evening:)
Despite forecasts of the Atlantic Oscillation (AO) to turn positive, itremains off the charts negative. This is North Atlantic Blocking sostrong that low are forced to our west. Once again it is colder andsnowy in Atlanta (28), than Boston (52). Cold air will returnTuesday. Snow will again fall in the mountains of VT, NH, and WesternME (hopefully with surprising totals similar to last week. But onceagain, we also see warm air from the north Atlantic retrograding backinto Maine, so we may get rain in Northern Maine, while it snows inVermont by late Weds. The storm that was The Blizzard That Blasted TheMetrodome, will stall over Maine as an upper low. A series of LowPressure centers along the warm/cold boundary off to our southeast willrotate in our direction all week. also a storm now coming ashore inWashington State (with Hawaiian Pineapple Connection) will bringanother snow to the Mid Atlantic by Friday, will that one turn northand get us next weekend. Yes, it should (based on old rule that saysthe latitude a storm comes onto the west coast, is the latitude it willbe neat when it goes off the east coast). I am still bullish for awhite Christmas in most of New England. There will be snowy surpriseshere this week.
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