At the start of December, I offered a monthly forecast that predicted near-normal temperatures for the month, with most of the month warmer than normal until an intense cold shot in the final week, after Christmas and into the New Year. As it turns out, that cold shot was delayed by a few days. The estimated dates of storms for the month all played out very closely to the forecast.
So...what does January hold? The absence of cold in northwest Canada and Alaska is a big factor that favors a mid-month warming, while tremendously cold air continues unabated in Siberia, with some noteable southward intrusions into Asia over the month. That said, our side of the hemisphere will have to wait for a combination of rebuilding cold (which can take weeks) and a shift of air across the northern latitudes. This all will likely spell a shot of cold air somewhere toward the end of January, and more certainly February. This time around, I'm hoping not to bite a few days too early on a southward surge of cold at the end of the month, which I expect to successfully penetrate into the Northern Tier of the nation, probably including Northern New England for the second half of the month, which is why I've indicated near-normal temperatures for the North Country overall in the month, offsetting mid-month warming there.
As mentioned in the video, I have concerns for potential freezing rain or sleet events during the time of active storm track, with shallow cold air likely to be stubborn from time to time, even when warmth streams in aloft.