With the atmospheric energy that will drive the next Northeast U.S. snowstorm now over British Columbia in Western Canada, data sampling of the disturbance will be more effective and complete, and forecast confidence will increase through Tuesday night.
Here's the latest:
- Excellent agreement on a Wednesday afternoon start in Western New York, an early evening start in the Southern Tier of New York, and either side of midnight Wednesday night in New England.
- Storm will not be a "blockbuster" by Northeast standards, but a foot of snow will fall for some, particularly where ocean enhancement and terrain enhancement takes place
- Two bursts of steadiest snow will fall, one is likely to be Thursday morning and another Thursday overnight, but snow will fall for much of Southern New England from midnight Wednesday to midday Friday, at varying intensity
- A sharp northern edge is likely in Northern New England and is likely not entirely correctly predicted in our current snowfall forecast. That will be adjusted as we near the event.
- Amounts may be higher than currently forecast in Southeast MA, Cape Cod and the Islands. At this point it's looking like some "banding," or focusing of heavier snow, may occur removed from the center of the storm, but if a more classic appearance takes shape, amounts will have to be raised in Southeast MA and perhaps lowered in Southeast NH.
- A northeast wind will persist during the storm, blowing strongest Thursday evening and night, with gusts to 45 mph possible at the coast.
- The persistent northeast wind will enhance snowfall in Eastern New England, which is why highest forecast totals are in Eastern MA right now.
- The persistent northeast wind will also churn the seas, already high from an astronomical high tide Thursday and Friday mornings. The Thursday morning high tide cycle probably won't be much of an issue aside from possible splashover. The Friday 11 AM high tide will bring minor to perhaps moderate coastal flooding depending upon the strength of the storm center.
- Extremely cold air will race into New England as the storm departs Friday, delivering high temperatures only in the single digits, even in Southern New England, and wind chill values below zero.
Tuesday afternoon forecast for Wednesday night to Friday afternoon snow in Southern New England:
Tuesday afternoon forecast for Wednesday night to Friday afternoon snow in Northern New England: