Though it's not quite a "lock," it's looking like at least a bit of snow should fall in New England late Thursday into Thursday night. It's important to note that this won't be the case for all of New England, certainly, but with cool air draining south from Canada on an active northerly wind, and a wave of low pressure rippling along a slowing front draped off the South Coast, this does put moisture and cold air on a collision course late Thursday. The biggest question is: does enough cold air arrive before the moisture starts to pull away? Though right now my best estimate is that at least some snowflakes will fly in Central/Southern Vermont, and parts of Central New Hampshire - with the highest chance in elevated terrain - I am very aware that a slightly faster retreat of moisture to the south will negate this potential, leaving the cold air just a few hours too late to create snow. As for chances of accumulating snow, the lower elevations and valleys have quite a few factors working against anything significant, namely the warm ground, relatively warm antecedent air, and the need for heavy precipitation rates to overcome these two factors. Nonetheless, it's something for us to watch, and as you can see by the image of the RPM 12km computer guidance product I've included in this post, the potential is there for a winter preview. We'll keep you posted.
