Tracking the Tropics: Emily Forms, But Holds an Uncertain Future | NECN
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Tracking the Tropics: Emily Forms, But Holds an Uncertain Future

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    NEWSLETTERS

    Tropical Storm Emily has taken shape, after hurricane hunter aircraft determined the gusts near 40 mph that swept through Dominica this evening were the product of a well-defined circulation center.  Having said that, the storm is quite disorganized.  As of Monday evening, the surface circulation has clearly outrun the mid-level circulation, and though that surface storm center has done an effective job of carrying sustained and relatively deep convection with it, typically such low level vorticies have trouble surviving when removed from the mid-level circulation, and I wouldn't be surprised to find a new surface low develop under the mid-level swirl, which would mean a reposition of Emily far to the northeast of the current position would be required.  Therefore, it goes without saying that the track and intensity forecasts hold tremendous uncertainty.