Tracking the Tropics: Some Version of Emily Likely to Pass Close to the Eastern Seaboard | NECN
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Tracking the Tropics: Some Version of Emily Likely to Pass Close to the Eastern Seaboard

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    No video today, but Emily features deep convection, as a central dense overcast attempts to develop. However, the combination of shear to the north and a lack of adequate upper level divergence, owing largely to the absence of well-established outflow jets, have resulted in a lopsided storm that features thunderstorms mostly to the west of the surface circulation center. Wind shear to the north of the cyclone on the order of 20 knots will inhibit rapid strengthening, even though the oceanic heat content supports a Category 5 storm. Therefore, only slow, steady strengthening seems likely, and substantial weakening is possible as the storm crosses the mountainous terrain of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.  Thereafter, wind shear diminishes, favoring strengthening. The gradual breakdown of the western periphery of the Western Atlantic ridge will allow the storm to turn north after moving over the Bahamas. But a large upper level low digging south from Hudson Bay, Canada, will force the Westerlies to buckle into the Mid-Atlantic by late in the upcoming weekend and early next week. A close pass to the Carolinas cannot be ruled out - at least with high surf - but a run farther north up the Eastern Seaboard seems unlikely at this time.