Our first named storm, Alex, is closing in on Belize City today. Thestorm will weaken over the Yucatan Peninsula tomorrow beforerestrengthening in the far southern Gulf of Mexico. The latest forecastfrom the National Hurricane Center is for Alex to become a CategoryOne Hurricane and make landfall near, or south of, the Texas/MexicoBoarder. But even if Alex stays away form the Oil Spill this not notmean we catch much of a break there. A sharp cold front will fall allthe way the Gulf States Tuesday, and that may trigger additionalstorminess (named or not, to early to say) with Gale Force winds andpowerful thunderstorms south of Pensacola by Wednesday. That storm thentravels northeast over the gulf stream the second half of the week. Thestorm should be a miss for New England, but may generate theGroundswell that surfers are waiting for. Here is a sea surfacetemperature analysis map from National Center for environmentalPrediction.
Look how warm the water is from the Gulf of Mexico all the way up to the New England Coast.
This warm water is a set up for more tropical trouble all summer long.
Another reason for hyper-active weather is the Temperature extreme overNorth America. We have exceptionally cold air around Hudson Bay Canada,battling it out with extra hot (and humid) air in the southern UnitedStates., The temperature at Umiujeq is running ten degrees Celsiusbelow normal, Augusta Georgia is about ten degrees Fahrenheit abovenormal. This extreme temperature gradient set up a fast moving jetstream across the nation. An persistent upper low on the west coastfeeds moisture into this battle resulting day after day of severeweather and flooding. Our next battle arrives Monday with severeweather off and on Monday Night and Tuesday.
Wednesday we have a very cold upper low here, with freezing levelbelow 7,000'. That means any showers may have hail Later Tuesday intoWednesday. This upper low should steer a strong (perhaps tropical)storm out to seas to our east, hopefully giving us a groundswell tosurf next Friday and Saturday.