<![CDATA[NECN - Weather New England]]>Copyright 2017https://www.necn.com/feature/weather-new-englandhttp://media.necn.com/designimages/clear.gifNECNhttps://www.necn.comen-usWed, 22 Nov 2017 13:36:39 -0500Wed, 22 Nov 2017 13:36:39 -0500NBC Owned Television Stations<![CDATA[Rain Falls for Most Ahead of Thanksgiving]]>Wed, 22 Nov 2017 12:48:07 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/LKN_THANKSGIVING_3DAY.png

Rain for most of us and snow in the mountains of the North Country will taper from west to east, early to late afternoon, respectively, today allowing most roads to dry out before temperatures drop below freezing overnight, avoiding icing for all but the snowy areas of the north.

The new, dry, cool air moving in for Thanksgiving Day will provide temperatures only around 30 or 35 degrees for Turkey Day morning football games and high temperatures of 40-45 by afternoon with a light wind.

Friday brings a similarly cool but dry and sunny day but our recent pattern of oscillating temperatures will continue for the foreseeable future, meaning temperatures will be in the 50s Saturday, a Saturday evening cold front with a passing shower, then a return of cooler and drier air Sunday into Monday.

We’ll repeat the pattern again next week — moderation toward midweek and a chance of rain increasing by week’s end in our exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.

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<![CDATA[Steady Rain Starts Off Thanksgiving Travel Day]]>Wed, 22 Nov 2017 07:05:20 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/LKN_FCST_SATRAD_HOUR_BY_HOUR_NEWENG+NOON.PNG

It’s one of, if not, the biggest travel days of the year, and we’re tracking a period of developing rain, which will last longest in southeastern New England. It won't drop more than scattered rain and high terrain snow showers in Western New England, but a steady rain from morning to midday in Worcester, wrapping up during early afternoon in Boston and mid to late afternoon on Cape Cod.

So, make sure to pack the patience and be ready to use the wind shield wipers for your travels across New England. However, if you’re flying to your destination, across most of the continental United States looks dry and mostly sunny.

If you’re heading to Chicago, it will be much cooler than here with highs into the mid to upper 30s Wednesday. If you’re travel plans take to you the west coast, southern California looks nice and warm with highs into the 80s. Flying to the Pacific Northwest, take the umbrella with you, showers are expected there.

If you are sticking around New England for the holiday, drier and cool air blows into New England, locking in sunshine for Thanksgiving Day for great local travel conditions with highs in the 40s and a repeat performance on Friday.

Continuing in our pattern of ups and downs, Saturday will bring temperatures back into the 50s ahead of some evening showers with a passing cold front, then drier and cooler air sets in for a couple of days Sunday into the start of next week... before our next moderation in the exclusive 10-day Early Warning Weather Forecast.

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<![CDATA[Some Steady Rain Incoming for Thanksgiving Travel]]>Tue, 21 Nov 2017 23:46:01 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/LKN_FRONTS_BOSDMA+5PM.PNG

Today was a nice change from yesterday’s nearly brutal wind chill out of the northwest. We can thank the change in wind direction for today’s warmth, along with the plentiful sunshine. Today featured mostly sunny skies and a southwesterly wind that ushered in high temperatures near 60° for most of southern New England. We are in for a relatively mild night as clouds thicken with an active southwest breeze keeping temperatures in the 40s, with a cold front sliding in overnight, bringing in some moisture for the first half of our Wednesday.

It’s a big travel day Wednesday and the period of developing rain will last longest in southeastern New England – not dropping more than scattered rain and high terrain snow showers in Western New England, but a steady rain from morning to midday in Worcester, wrapping up during early afternoon in Boston and mid to late afternoon on Cape Cod.

Thereafter, drier and cool air blows into New England, locking in sunshine for Thanksgiving Day for great local travel conditions with highs in the 40s and a repeat performance on Friday. Continuing in our pattern of ups and downs, Saturday will bring temperatures back into the 50s ahead of some evening showers with a passing cold front, then drier and cooler air sets in for a couple of days Sunday into the start of next week before our next moderation in the exclusive 10-day Early Warning Weather Forecast.

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<![CDATA[Warm Temperatures Today, Rain Tomorrow]]>Tue, 21 Nov 2017 17:10:40 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/Tuesday_LKN_FRONTS_BOSDMA+%2833%29.png

New England’s weather pattern of oscillating temperatures, alternating between peaking warm and dipping cool every other day or so, will continue for the foreseeable future and today is a warm peak.

Although wind today will be just about as strong as yesterday, gusting to 40 mph at times, the feeling will be entirely different as a southwest wind direction teams with lots of sun to boost temperatures to 55-60 degrees by afternoon for most of us, and 45-50 even in snow covered communities of the North Country!

Clouds will thicken overnight with an active southwest breeze keeping temperatures in the 40s, and rain showers will develop Wednesday morning.

It’s a big travel day Wednesday and the period of developing rain will last longest in Eastern New England — not dropping more than scattered rain and high terrain snow showers in Western New England, but a steady rain from morning to midday in Worcester, wrapping up during early afternoon in Boston and mid to late afternoon on Cape Cod. Thereafter, drier and cool air blows into New England, locking in sunshine for Thanksgiving Day for great local travel conditions with highs in the 40s and a repeat performance on Friday.

Continuing in our pattern of ups and downs, Saturday will bring temperatures back into the 50s ahead of some evening showers with a passing cold front, then drier and cooler air sets in for a couple of days Sunday into the start of next week... before our next moderation in the exclusive 10-day Early Warning Weather Forecast.

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<![CDATA[Warm Front to Bring Some Clouds But Mainly Sunny Skies]]>Tue, 21 Nov 2017 07:03:41 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/Tuesday+2pm.png

A warm front going by to our north is bringing a few clouds this morning, but it looks like sunshine wins out with temperatures warming through the 50s to near 60 degrees south, and closer to 50 degrees well north. The wind continues to be gusty, from the southwest past 30 mph during the day.

We expect quiet weather overnight with temperatures remaining above freezing and wind diminishing a bit.

Travel day tomorrow is a little bit complicated as we are tracking a front from Canada to our north, and also low-pressure developing south of Nantucket. The two will join forces for a powerful storm AFTER they go by New England.

So we end up with a bit of rain east, and a few rain or snow showers in the mountains west and north.

Temperatures are going to be in the 50s south, falling into the 40s, and in the 40s north falling into the 30s during the afternoon.

Most of the country from coast to coast looks like it should be problem-free at the airports and most roadways too.

Another cold and dry winter wind arrives Wednesday night with temperatures falling into the 20s to near 30 degrees.

Thanksgiving looks like a nice day. The air will be cold at the football fields in the morning in the 20s and 30s at sunshine. The wind will tend to diminish for a nice afternoon and high temperatures near 40 degrees.

Friday starts off cold, with increasing clouds temperatures get back to the 40s.

And once again this weekend it looks like a warm wind will develop Saturday with temperatures well into the 50s, followed by showers of rain, changing to snow in the mountains with a colder wind arriving on Sunday.

Though there were a lot of energy centers, and the forecast is a bit challenging, we still see no big storms in sight.

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<![CDATA[Chilly Breeze Beneath a Fair Sky]]>Mon, 20 Nov 2017 23:44:54 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/LKN_FRONTS_BOSDMA+%2832%291.png

Flurries this morning were courtesy of a strong band of lake-effect snow streaming off Lake Ontario, traversing upstate New York and surviving the trip with at least a few flakes all the way into northern Massachusetts before dry air finally squashed them out.

As dry air continues to take hold of New England a fair sky prevails with snowflakes last to depart from the mountains of Vermont this afternoon. A busy westerly wind, gusting as high as 40 mph at times, will create a wind chill value in the 30s at the warmest time of the day before the gusts quiet noticeably after about 3:15 p.m., according to our exclusive, in-house 15-minute forecast guidance.

Though gusts may quiet, a breeze persists overnight as it shifts direction to blow from the southwest, carrying milder air into our region — holding temperatures in the 20s and 30s overnight, then teaming with sunshine to boost highs into the middle and upper 50s Tuesday afternoon.

The milder air will aid in ensuring our next weather system — a cold front and attendant weak storm center Wednesday — will remain almost entirely in the form of rain, save for some brief mixing with snow near the Canada border.

Of course, Wednesday is a big travel day, so the forecast of rain east and showers west, morning to mid-afternoon, will mean a slower go for many before the rain departs by late day and evening, giving way to a stretch of bright and cool weather for most of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

The next chance of showers arrives with another cold front Sunday, delivering a new shot of chilly air to start next week in our exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.

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<![CDATA[High Pressure Brings in Chilly Temps]]>Mon, 20 Nov 2017 04:33:49 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/214*120/thumbnailMon.jpg

High pressure will prevail for today and Tuesday. Temperatures will be chilly and highs will only climb into the upper 30s and low 40s during the afternoon.

It will remain breezy, so the wind chill will be in the teens and twenties for most of the day so dress in layers. Tuesday, warmer air moves in and temperatures will climb back into the mid 50s. It will be the nicest day of the week on Tuesday.

The weather turns active again on Wednesday — unfortunately it is the busiest travel day of the year. We’re expecting mainly rain except in the higher elevations of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.

It turns colder and drier for Thanksgiving Day and cooler after Thanksgiving. Expect mainly dry weather and temperatures several degrees below average.

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<![CDATA[High Wind and Rains Before Thanksgiving]]>Mon, 20 Nov 2017 00:24:13 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/214*120/thumbnail+%282%298.png

It was a wild weather day in New England. We started the day off at 60° in Boston. By lunchtime the temperatures were tumbling into the 50s as winds shifted from the south to the west. Winds were howling out of the west with gusts to 50 MPH. Those wind gusts were enough to cause some minor damage across the area. All of this wild weather caused by a cold front moving through. Ahead of the front, the temperatures climbed, the air turned humid and the barometric pressure dropped. Behind the front, the temperatures crashed, the air dried out and the barometer quickly climbed.

I was asked by a school teacher during a recent school visit if any of the old-school weather forecasting techniques are still used. I’ve always enjoyed collecting weather instruments. An old friend that I made in Rochester during my first job in TV gave me a “weather stick” as a going away gift. It curves up to the sky when there is high pressure and curves down to the ground when there is low pressure. The sticks are made out of balsam or birch. When there is moisture in the air it causes the stick to bend down and once the rain ends and the clouds clear it dries out and bends up. The weather stick actually predates the mercury barometer. I tried a time-lapse of the process today, but unfortunately the recording stopped too soon. However, I did take a before and after picture. The picture on the left was taken at 11 AM before the cold front moved through. The picture on the right was taken at 1 PM. It might be old technology, but – it works!


High pressure will prevail for Monday and Tuesday. The weather turns active again on Wednesday – unfortunately it is the busiest travel day of the year. We’re expecting mainly rain except in the higher elevations of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. It turns colder and drier for Thanksgiving Day.

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<![CDATA[Gusting Winds Today as Cooler, Drier Air Moves In]]>Sun, 19 Nov 2017 14:49:33 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/214*120/111917+wx+blog.jpg

A strong storm that tracked north of us into Canada is now generating a return to colder and drier weather in New England.

The temperature Saturday night warmed to near 60 degrees, with occasionally heavy rain and wind gusting from the south up to 45 mph.

A cold front is now passing east of New England with colder and drier air along with clearing sky. By sunset Sunday the temperature is back down to the 30s north and 40s south, with a mostly clear sky. The wind will still be gusting past 30 mph from the west.

Overnight, we can expect mostly clear skies with the temperature in the 20s north and 30s south, continuing to be breezy.

The hills of Western New England may see some snow flurries, and snow showers may accumulate a few inches in the higher elevations of Vermont.

Monday there will be a few flurries in the mountains, otherwise it's partly to mostly sunny. It will be a more seasonable day with high temperatures in the 40s south and 30s north. The wind will remain active from the west at 20 to 25 mph adding a chill to the fall air.

Tuesday may start off cold, but with plenty of sunshine it will become windy from the southwest again pushing temperatures well into the 50s by the afternoon.

Another front comes in on Wednesday, bringing with it clouds and a chance of showers. We are also tracking the storm at sea that may clip eastern New England with a cooler rain Wednesday afternoon.

If everything goes well, our Wednesday weather is not too significant, and drying and seasonable weather comes in for Thanksgiving day. The call for Thanksgiving is for mostly sunny skies and a high temperature in the 30s to low 40s.

Quiet weather should be here to start the weekend but another front may come in with rain and/or mountain snow showers later Saturday into Sunday with temperatures remaining seasonable in the 30s and 40s.

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<![CDATA[Stormy Skies to Bring Downpours, High Winds Overnight]]>Sun, 19 Nov 2017 00:08:57 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/gusts.jpg

After a sunny start to the weekend clouds will continue to thicken up overnight. Rain will pick up in intensity overnight. There could be some snow above 4,000 feet in Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. This won’t be as strong as the storm that we experienced before Halloween, but it will bring some high winds and isolated to scattered power outages.

Temperatures overnight will climb instead of fall. Our high temperatures for Sunday will likely be set around midnight. Some locations, especially in southern New England could reach the low 60s. (The fact that the ocean water is still pretty warm, helps that out.)

There could be a line of thunderstorms that mixes down strong wind gusts early on Sunday. If we do see this line of convection materialize there could be wind gusts up to 60 MPH. The greatest probability of seeing 60 MPH gusts would be in extreme southeast Massachusetts, southern Rhode Island and southeast Connecticut. Even after the line of downpours moves east, winds will stay gusty. We will see the wind change from the south to the northwest. 40 MPH wind gusts are possible through sunset Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday look dry and chilly. There is a system moving in by Wednesday. Temperatures will moderate enough so we see rain and not snow. We need to keep an eye on this storm since Wednesday is one of the busiest travel days of the year.

Once the storm system departs, temperatures will drop back into the upper 30s and low 40s during the day and overnight lows will drop into the 20s.

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<![CDATA[Strong Winds Arrive Late Saturday]]>Sat, 18 Nov 2017 12:45:27 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/214*120/111817+wx+blog.jpg

It was a cold start region-wide Saturday with some lows in the teens north and southern New England starting off in the low 20s. Mostly clear skies and calm winds allowed for frost to cover some grassy surfaces and on vehicles, so prepare to get the ice scraper out if you have morning travels. Otherwise, that frost will melt away as a warm front slides in the late afternoon, allowing temperatures Saturday to warm-up to near 50 degrees south and upper 40s north.

Clouds increase through the day Saturday from west to east ahead of our next system that brings rain and strong winds. Scattered rain is possible in western New England by late afternoon, but the bulk of the rain with embedded downpours holds off until overnight and into the first half of Sunday.

The strong winds are expected to arrive overnight with winds gusting out of the southwest along the southern coastline of New England between 40 to 50 mph. Places like the Cape & the Islands could reach 50mph+ into early Sunday morning.

A Wind Advisory has been issued in advance of these possible damaging gusts, so plan ahead for power outages and watch out for downed trees and powerlines.

The reason why the wind will be so strong is we have a warm front followed by a powerful cold front that will quickly sweep across the region. Even though high temperatures on Sunday will be mid to upper 50s, those temperatures will be observed in the morning hours. Temperatures take a tumble through the day Sunday as the cold front takes over, changing the wind direction to out of the WNW by the afternoon and allowing temperatures to be into the mid 40s by midday.

Also, by midday Sunday, southern New England will already start to see some peeks of sunshine as the system slides to the northeast of the area. However, on the backside of this system, snow showers will be prevalent in the higher elevations of northern Vermont, New Hampshire, and NW Maine where a few inches of fresh snow are possible.

By the start of the shortened work week, Monday’s high temperatures will struggle to make it out of the 30s as the cold air continues to move in from the northwest.

Then, we’re riding the rollercoaster temperatures through Thanksgiving day. Another warm front will change the wind direction Tuesday to out of the southwest, meaning a warm-up with highs back into the 50s again, but that warmth will not stick around for your holiday travel plans, unless you’re traveling outside of New England.

Showers arrive on Wednesday- the biggest travel day of the year- with some rain switching over to a wintry mix in far northwestern New England, so leave a little extra time to get to your destination.

Traveling by air to get to your destination? Wednesday looks relatively quiet across most of the United States with the Midwest looking cold and sunny, and the southwest looking dry and warm. The Pacific Northwest likely will see showers and highs into the 50s.

On Thanksgiving, the cold air from the Midwest slides in bringing a cool-down for the holiday with highs into the low 40s for southern New England and 30s north.

Wherever your plans take you for the holiday, do not forget to download the NBC Boston / NECN app to stay up-to-date on the latest weather updates on-the-go. 

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<![CDATA[Winter Chill Sweeps Across New England]]>Fri, 17 Nov 2017 12:59:18 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/11172017LKN_FRONTS_BOSDMA+%2831%29.png

Brand new, cool autumn air is sweeping across New England, and the changing air is evidenced by a whipping wind from the northwest today — gusting to 40 mph at times.

While actual temperatures reach 45-50 degrees this afternoon beneath sun for many, the wind chill will hold in the 30s at the warmest time of the day, meaning we want to dress for an early winter chill. The wind quiets overnight and a mostly clear sky with our new, cool air will help temperatures to fall into the 20s for the vast majority of New England.

You can imagine increasing clouds after limited morning sun on Saturday will slow any temperature climb from a chilly start, but a developing southerly wind will assist, and high temperatures should eventually reach the 50s near and south of the Massachusetts Turnpike, and 40s for many farther north.

Although milder air slowly filters north into New England, enough cold air may linger in the mountains so developing late day and evening showers will start as some high terrain snowflakes before nearly all of the six-state region sees rain, steady and heavy at times, overnight Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

A mild wind and raindrops Sunday morning will depart as the wind shifts sharply during late morning, sweeping rain out to sea, allowing for emerging sun, but cutting temperatures by nearly 20 degrees from morning to afternoon, falling from the 50s to the 30s!

Cool weather is anticipated almost all of next week and our exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast shows a good holiday weekend with two exceptions we’ll watch: a chance of rain Wednesday and again by Sunday.

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<![CDATA[Snow Showers North, Skies Mostly Clear South]]>Fri, 17 Nov 2017 04:32:16 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/Friday111717.jpg

A few spots along the Canadian border and along the spine of the Green Mountains in Vermont with start off with some snow showers for our Friday morning as Thursday’s system pushes off to our northeast. In southern New England, skies will be mostly clear for Friday morning’s commute, meaning plenty of sunshine, but a cooler start with temperatures into the lower 30s to upper 20s.

For Friday afternoon, under a blanket of sunshine, high temperatures will be into the upper 30s north, mid to upper 40s south, but it will feel slightly cooler than the air temperatures with a slight wind chill as winds will be out of the northwest at 10-25 mph.

We see a brief break in the active weather pattern for Friday, but by Saturday mid-afternoon, we’ll see rain sliding in from the west. High temperatures will reach near 50 degrees Saturday as a warm front slides in along with the showers, but overnight Saturday night into early Sunday morning, a cold front will sweep in.

The cold front will not clear the area until late morning Sunday, so even though the high temperature for Sunday reads as the upper 40s, that will likely be observed in the morning hours and then temperatures fall into the afternoon back into the lower 40s to 30s as a wintry mix is possible into northern New England by the afternoon.

By Sunday evening, the showers will have cleared out of southern New England, but lingering showers will remain in far northern Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire by the Canadian border.

As we start off the shortened work week for most as we get closer and closer to the Thanksgiving holiday, Monday will likely be the coolest day with highs near 40 under plenty of sunshine.

Tuesday and Wednesday, highs will be into the mid to upper 40s with a chance for a clipper system to slide in from the Midwest that could bring a few flurries to northern New England Wednesday and a few rain showers along the coastline Wednesday.

Cooler air slides in by Thanksgiving across New England with highs into the lower 40s south, near 40 north.

For Black Friday and the following weekend, temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 40s with a chance for showers, but we’ll keep an eye as we get closer.

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<![CDATA[Snow North, Steady Rain South, and Even a Rumble of Thunder]]>Fri, 17 Nov 2017 00:36:07 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/Weather+Blog+Jackie.jpg

What a day! We started off our Thursday with snow into far northern New England, especially into the higher elevations.

Madison, New Hampshire reported 2 inches of snowfall by midday and snow even accumulated on roadways according to the New Hampshire Department of Transportation, which allocated crews and plows out to keep the roadways safe.

In parts of Connecticut, they saw a thunderstorm by the early evening that created gusty winds and pea-sized hail, followed by rainbow sightings after the thunderstorm weakened. The steady rainfall over eastern New England will subside through this evening, with a partial clearing of the skies through the overnight hours.

As the system slides into the Gulf of Maine and eventually off toward our northeast, we'll be on the backside of this system, allowing for the cold, northwesterly flow to slide in. A few bands of snow showers will linger into early tomorrow morning along the Canadian border and along the spine of the Green Mountains in Vermont. Southern New England, skies will be clear for Friday morning’s commute, meaning plenty of sunshine, but a cooler start with lows overnight slipping into the lower 30s.

For Friday afternoon, under a blanket of sunshine, high temperatures will be into the upper 30s north, mid to upper 40s south, but it will feel slightly cooler than the air temperatures with a slight wind chill as winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 25 mph. We see a brief break in the active weather pattern for Friday, but by Saturday mid-afternoon, we’ll see rain sliding in from the west. High temperatures will reach near 50 degrees Saturday as a warm front slides in along with the showers, but overnight Saturday night into early Sunday morning, a cold front will sweep in. The cold front will not clear the area until late morning Sunday, so even though the high temperature for Sunday reads as upper 40s, that will likely be observed in the morning hours and then temperatures fall into the afternoon back into the lower 40s to 30s as a wintry mix is possible into northern New England by the afternoon.

By Sunday evening, the showers will have cleared out of southern New England, but lingering showers will remain in far northern Maine, Vt., and N.H. by the Canadian border. As we start off the shortened work week for most as we get closer and closer to the Thanksgiving holiday, Monday will likely be the coolest day with highs near 40 under plenty of sunshine.

Tuesday and Wednesday, highs will be into the mid to upper 40s with a chance for a clipper system to slide in from the Midwest that could bring a few flurries to northern New England Wednesday and a few rain showers along the coastline Wednesday. Cooler air slides in by Thanksgiving across New England with highs into the lower 40s south, near 40 north.

For Black Friday and the following weekend, temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 40s with a chance for showers, but we’ll keep an eye as we get closer.

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<![CDATA[Rainfall for Most Areas, Pockets of Snow in Higher Terrains]]>Thu, 16 Nov 2017 12:57:23 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/1116LKN_NBCU_PTYPE_NEWENG.png

Although rain is falling for most of New England today, Northern New England has seen snow stubbornly changing to rain, though the mountains from Vermont to New Hampshire and Maine will continue to see pockets of snow, particularly in the higher terrain.

Up to half a foot of higher summit snow is possible today into this evening, though most of Northern New England sees far less, and the remainder of the six-state region sees a fraction of an inch of rain falling periodically through the evening commute.

Overnight, drier and colder air returns slowly enough to avoid road icing in most communities, though snow showers will continue in the far North Country until dry and brisk air takes over entirely on Friday, holding high temperatures in the 40s and wind chill values in the 30s.

Enough dry air moves into New England to hold off our next round of rain until late day Saturday, and though some mountain snow is possible, the vast majority of us will see rain out of this one — ending as some mountain snow early Sunday morning while the rest of us see early morning rain shutting down and sunshine returning for much of the day with a brisk, active breeze.

Next week looks on par for this time of the year when it comes to temperature — highs in the 40s — and although the chance of rain or snow is relatively low the day before Thanksgiving, that’s one day we’re watching as a storm passes nearby.

Turkey Day and Black Friday both are looking fair and cool right now in the Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.

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<![CDATA[Line of Showers to March Across Parts of New England]]>Thu, 16 Nov 2017 07:03:13 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/ThursdayWXBlog.jpg

Showers will be knocking on our doorstep early Thursday morning in western New England with the rain changing over to snow into the higher elevations of the Green Mountains in Vermont, and the White Mountains in northern New Hampshire. The line of showers will continue to spread from west to east over the course of the morning — sliding into central Massachusetts by mid-morning, and continuing eastward.

As the line of showers continues to march across New England, by 5 p.m. Thursday, a low pressure is likely to form just to the west of the Cape Cod canal that could make for heavy downpours from Providence, Rhode Island to Boston, with some embedded thunder possible.

Rainfall rates could be between a 0.5 inch to an inch at times. Wind gusts still pose a threat as gusts could exceed 40 mph, especially in southeast New England. On that note, be on the lookout for downed trees and possible power outages Thursday afternoon and evening.

The low pressure then propels into the Gulf of Maine by Thursday night, drying things out for southern New England, but bringing rain to the southern coast of Maine and snow showers into northern Maine through Friday morning as the system slides out.

We’ll see a break from the active weather temporarily for most of Friday, but it will be chilly and breezy with highs into the low to mid 40s under mostly sunny skies.

The weekend starts off wet as another system slides in Saturday with rain south, wintry mix to snow north. Some lingering snow flurries possible in the mountains of New England early Sunday, otherwise the focus will be on the gusty northwesterly winds on the back-side of the system. Temperatures will slip over the course of the day.

Then, it’s a relatively quiet start to Thanksgiving week, but we can’t rule out a slight chance for showers on Thanksgiving day. We’re keeping an eye on the busiest travel day of the year — the day before Thanksgiving — and on your holiday forecast as we get closer.

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<![CDATA[Wet Weather Helping Christmas Tree Crop Conditions]]>Wed, 15 Nov 2017 16:29:15 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/Wet_Weather_Helping_Christmas_Tree_Crop_Conditions.jpg

Hundreds of Christmas Tree farms around New England will be opening for business the week after Thanksgiving following a rough harvest in 2016. Michael Page reports.

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<![CDATA[Sun Makes Welcome Return, But Stormy Weather on the Way]]>Wed, 15 Nov 2017 13:02:25 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/LKN_FRONTS_BOSDMA+%2830%291.png

New England is entering a pattern of oscillating weather over the next several days — nice one day unsettled the next — as a series of fast-moving disturbances traverse the northern tier of the United States and cross our region.

We start with a fair weather day today with the sun making a welcome return. And although high temperatures will hold in the 40s, most of New England at least sees a brighter day.

Rain over the Great Lakes is moving east, and thickening clouds overnight will deliver showers, overspreading New England from west to east, mid to late Thursday morning.

Though early commuters in Eastern New England will probably skate through without raindrops, the midday, afternoon and evening will feature wet roads with some big puddles as embedded downpours move through with a rumble of thunder possible as well.

In our on-again-off-again pattern, Friday looks dry and brisk with sunshine (though some snow will fly in Northern Maine) before another round of rain arrives Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning.

Drier and brisk conditions take over again by midday Sunday onward, and next week looks like fewer disturbances will impact New England, though cool air dominates in the exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day. We’ll watch nearby disturbances Wednesday and Thanksgiving Thursday.

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<![CDATA[Sunshine Returns Before Becoming Cloudy]]>Wed, 15 Nov 2017 04:40:42 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/WedAMBlog1115.jpg

Finally sunshine returns for our Wednesday, but we could have some slick spots for the early morning commute, so just be mindful of that. Otherwise, a dome of high pressure will be with us for Wednesday, meaning quiet and sun-filled weather, a stark contrast from the start of the work week. Highs Wednesday will stretch into the 40s across New England, closer to 50 in far southern New England.

Thursday, as high pressure slides off the coastline, will allow the next system to take over. First, a warm-front changes the wind direction to out of the southwest, ushering in milder weather and a threat of rain, and heavy downpours at times as the line of showers marches from west to east through Thursday afternoon. Some of these showers could mix with some snow flurries into the higher elevations of northern New England, so we could see some slick spots.

The warm front is short-lived as a cold front quickly takes its place, switching the wind direction by Friday to out of the northwest. Friday will bring a renewed chill in the air with highs into the low to mid 40s under mostly sunny skies.

The weekend looks wet Saturday and turns windy by Sunday. The system that brings the next round of showers for Saturday afternoon could change over to snow into northern New England or at least some wintry mix.

This system is quick-moving and exits the area by Sunday, but we’ll have the gusty winds to deal with for the second half of the weekend. High temperatures will be in the upper 40s both weekend days.

Then, it’s a cool start to Thanksgiving week with highs in the lower 40s under mostly sunny skies. Tuesday and Wednesday remain mainly quiet, but Thanksgiving Thursday could bring some rain/snow to New England, but we’ll have to keep our eye on that particular system as we get closer to the holiday. 

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<![CDATA[Gradual Clearing Wednesday With a Look to a Wet Weekend]]>Wed, 15 Nov 2017 00:49:07 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/BOSTONDMA-ASI1-48_1315516799275680000.jpg

After a gloomy Tuesday under cloudy skies, we’ll see a gradual clearing overnight tonight, which will allow temperatures to slip. Most of northern New England will see those overnight lows into the mid to upper 20s, teens into the Crown of Maine. In southern New England, lows will hover around the freezing mark, which could mean for a frosty start, so exercise some caution during that early morning commute Wednesday. 

A dome of high pressure will be with us for Wednesday meaning quiet and sun-filled weather, a stark contrast from the start of the work week. Highs Wednesday will stretch into the 40s across New England, closer to 50 in far southern New England. Thursday, as high pressure slides off the coastline, this will allow the next system to take over. 

First, a warm-front changes the wind direction to out of the southwest, ushering in milder weather and a threat of rain, and heavy downpours at times as the line of showers marches from west to east through Thursday afternoon. Some of these showers could mix with some snow flurries into the higher elevations of northern New England, so we could see some slick spots. The warm front is short-lived as a cold front quickly takes its place, switching the wind direction by Friday to out of the northwest. Friday will bring a renewed chill in the air with highs into the low to mid 40s under mostly sunny skies. 

The weekend looks wet Saturday and turns windy by Sunday. The system that brings the next round of showers for Saturday afternoon could change over to snow into northern New England or at least some wintry mix. This system is quick-moving and exits the area by Sunday, but we’ll have the gusty winds to deal with for the second half of the weekend. High temperatures will be in the upper 40s both weekend days. Then, it’s a cool start to Thanksgiving week with highs in the lower 40s under mostly sunny skies. Tuesday and Wednesday remain mainly quiet, but Thanksgiving Thursday could bring some rain/snow to New England, but we’ll have to keep our eye on that particular system as we get closer to the holiday.

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<![CDATA[Cloudy and Cool After Flurries, Sprinkles Move Out]]>Tue, 14 Nov 2017 13:30:36 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/nbc+boston+wx+111417+1pm.jpg

Some patchy light snow falling across interior Massachusetts this morning will continue tapering to scattered flurries and sprinkles through midday, leaving mostly cloudy skies and cool air ahead of what may be a renewed flurry this afternoon.

Slow clearing is expected overnight as New England settles into an on-again, off-again pattern of oscillating weather in the next several days. We start with a nice day Wednesday — fair sky except for some stubborn Cape Cod clouds, and temperatures in the 40s. Clouds thicken Wednesday evening and by late night, showers will be falling in Western New England with rain and snow showers in Vermont.

Showers expand to a period of rain Thursday in Southern New England, with mountain snow and valley rain in the North Country.

Dry and cool air takes hold again Friday as another strong storm develops in the Great Lakes, pulling into Canada but leading to the development of a second storm center near New England, promoting developing rain Saturday afternoon and evening, lasting into early Sunday morning and once again bringing some snow and mix to the Northern mountains.

Next week looks cool in the exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast — only in the 40s — with a slight chance of some rain or snow the day before Thanksgiving. We’ll keep an eye on that and, of course, the only 10-day means the only place you’ll find an early look at Thanskgiving.

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<![CDATA[Viewers Share Photos of Snowfall Around Northern New England]]>Tue, 14 Nov 2017 10:04:31 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/Concord+NH+Jan+Stickler+111317.jpg

Photo Credit: Jan Stickler]]>
<![CDATA[Rain for Many, Light Snow for Some]]>Tue, 14 Nov 2017 04:41:01 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/Monday+2pm+NBC.png

The biggest feature of the next few days is a storm set to ramp up and develop south of Nantucket, mostly staying out in the ocean. But it is close enough to generate rain and/or snow showers, especially in central and southern New England today.

Our Monday forecast has mostly cloudy skies with light rain or snow scattered around. Nothing significant expected, with a high temperature near 40 degrees.

Overnight, rain may become heavier in eastern Massachusetts with possible snow or ice mixed in well north and west of Boston into southern New Hampshire, low in the 30s.

An upper level low pressure system is overhead tomorrow, with the storm at sea, this will result in mostly cloudy skies and a high temperature again in the lower 40s.

The sky should be a little bit brighter on Wednesday, with a high temperature well into the 40s.

A more significant front approaches on Thursday, wind will increase from the south pushing the temperature up to near 50 degrees, with a chance of showers, perhaps mixed with snow in the mountains.

Colder air returns on Friday with a high temperature in the 40s under a mix of clouds and sunshine.

Another front arrives next weekend, it may slow down with storming is developing in the Gulf of Maine. It looks warm enough for rain in most of New England, although it could be snow in the mountains on Saturday and doing on Sunday. High temperature in the 40s on Saturday, dropping back to the 30s on Sunday.

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<![CDATA[How Rare Were Those Record Low Temperatures? Extremely!]]>Mon, 13 Nov 2017 00:53:09 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/weather1112.jpg

It was another cold morning, but no records were set this time. Most communities started the day in the teens and twenties. For the first half of November, that is frigid. Friday and Saturday we did set back to back record low temperatures. The last time that happened was in 2016. If you looked strictly at that date, it doesn’t seem too significant. I look at the data between 2000 and 2016. During that span of time, Boston experienced 11 record low temperatures and 53 record HIGH temperatures. That is a very significant disparity.

Temperatures will moderate this week. We are expecting temperatures to return to the upper 40s and low 50s, closer to average for this time of year. There were signals we would see another bitter blast, but the signals are weaker and it doesn’t look likely.

We have entered into a fairly active stretch of weather. It gives us meteorologists something to track, but there won’t be anything that we really have to worry about. Showers are likely on Monday. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a few wet snowflakes mix in. It will NOT stick. This precipitation is along a warm front and temperatures will gradually go up through the week.

Thursday a few more showers will pass by. It is possible a stronger system heads our way Saturday. Again, it won’t be like the storm we saw before Halloween, but we could see a few heavier showers, gusty winds and the peaks above 4,000 ft could see some snow!

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<![CDATA[Near Record-Low Temperatures to Start, Light Winds All Day]]>Sun, 12 Nov 2017 13:49:31 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/Sunday+3pm+NECN+111217.png

There is only one way for the temperature to go, and that is up.

After the coldest Veterans Day since about 1956, we woke to a heavy freeze and frost again Sunday morning.

Not too many records have been reported, but on Cape Cod where the temperature dipped into the teens, Charlie Orloff in Mashpee cooled to 18 degrees, and that's pretty much a record for the day.

Now as the less cold air comes in, a warm front to our south is generating a lot of clouds Sunday. So although it's not as cold as it was Saturday, we have less in the way of sunshine.

High temperatures will be in the 30s north to low 40s south, with light variable winds mostly from the north and northeast 5 to 10 mph.

Not only is there a warm front to the south, there's another cold front going across Ontario and Quebec.

That keeps the clouds going and slightly colder air in far northern New England late Sunday night and Monday.

The biggest feature of the next few days is a storm set to develop south of Nantucket and ramp up, mostly staying out in the ocean.

But it may be close enough to generate rain and/or snow showers, especially in central and southern New England Monday afternoon and at night.

Our Monday forecast has mostly cloudy skies with some light rain or snow scattered around. Nothing significant is expected, with a high temperature near 40 degrees.

An upper level low pressure system is overhead Tuesday. With the storm at sea, this will result in mostly cloudy skies and a high temperature again in the lower 40s.

The sky should be a little bit brighter on Wednesday, with a high temperature well into the 40s.

A more significant front approaches on Thursday. Wind will increase from the south pushing the temperature up to near 50 degrees, with a chance of showers, perhaps mixed with snow in the mountains.

Colder air returns on Friday with a high temperature in the 40s under a mix of clouds and sunshine.

Another front arrives next weekend. It looks warm enough for rain in most of New England, although it could be snow in the mountains on Saturday. High temperatures will be in the 40s on Saturday, dropping back to the 30s next Sunday.

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<![CDATA[Unusual Record Low Temperatures]]>Sat, 11 Nov 2017 23:38:00 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/weather1111.jpg

Friday, November 3rd, the temperature in Boston reached 75°! This morning, we hit another record low temperature. The low temperature bottomed out at 23°. We are expecting another cold night ahead and a few more records will likely fall. Probabilities of setting records are highest at the coast, where the records are in the 20s. Record low temperatures for the date inland are in the 10s. Portland, Maine could tie or break a record low temperature. If the record is broken, it will be the sixth record low set in the last decade! (Six compared with dozens of record high temperatures of the last 10 years.)

Sunday afternoon won’t have quite the bite. Winds drop off and we will see a warmer flow. High temperatures will reach the middle 40s. Expect clouds to increase during the afternoon. Sunday night into Monday morning it’s possible that we’ll see a few rain or even SNOW showers. A weak warm front will be the trigger, and by Tuesday temperatures will come close to 50° - once that front passes.

A more significant storm is possible by next weekend. Temperatures will be in the 50s, so it’s rain we’re talking about, not snow. Winds could be brisk once again Saturday night going into that Sunday. Our exclusive 10-day forecast is showing another cool down the following week. High temperatures will only reach the low 40s and low temperatures will dip into the upper 20s.

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<![CDATA[Temperatures Rebound to 30s After Cold Start to Veterans Day]]>Sat, 11 Nov 2017 13:05:14 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/214*120/veterans+day+wx+blog.png

We started off our Saturday with record-breaking cold in Boston with a low of 23 degrees, beating the old long-standing record of 24 set back on this date in 1901.

The rest of New England was either one to two degrees shy of setting new records as temperatures slipped into the upper teens to low 20s for most of New England.

For your Veterans Day plans, after a chilly start, temperatures will rebound into the mid to upper 30s under mostly sunny skies, so be sure to bundle up and don’t forget the sunglasses, too.

The wind will subside by late afternoon.

Saturday night brings increasing cloud cover and lows into the mid to upper 20s south, upper teens north.

High pressure dominates our forecast for this weekend and slides just off the coast of New England for Sunday, shifting the wind direction to out of the south, ushering in slightly warmer conditions for the second half of the weekend.

Sunday’s highs reach into the low to mid 40s, upper 30s north under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Monday brings a slight chance of showers, especially closest to the coastline as a system just skims southeastern New England by the afternoon and evening hours.

Tuesday and Wednesday are quiet with highs into the 40s through midweek.

The end of the week brings 50s back into the forecast, but also more cloud cover and the threat of rain late Thursday into early Friday, before another system takes shape that could bring rain to the south, and snow showers north by next Saturday.

We’ll keep an eye on that and continue to give updates through the week as we get closer.

Be sure to download the NBC Boston / necn app to get the latest updates to your forecast and the exclusive 10-day forecast.

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<![CDATA[Numbing Blast Backs Off...Slowly]]>Fri, 10 Nov 2017 23:37:14 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/LKN_FCST_TONIGHT_495-BOSDMA_ACTIVE2.png

Mid-winter air arrived this morning. Gusty winds slowly chewed away at our patience as the temps plummeted in the afternoon. Overnight the bottom drops out (for early November, at least) as skies remain clear and the winds back down.

Records are in jeopardy too. Boston should crush its old record of 24 and Worcester should just edge out its old record of 14. I'm forecasting a low of 19 in Boston and 12 in Worcester. Brrr with a capital B.

The wind chill will only get worse as the temperatures fall overnight. Mercifully, the wind will slow down and almost turn calm in some suburbs. Gusts will continue on Cape Cod as warm ocean waters grate against the cold air pouring in overhead.

Recovery is all relative. Highs stumble a bit tomorrow under a vast high pressure system, but most of us should at least crack freezing in Southern New England. Sunday does better with highs "soaring" to the low and mid 40s (still below normal), but clouds play spoiler in the afternoon.

Weather systems look weak and disorganized for the upcoming week. We're still running below normal, but a late week storm could push us well into the 50s as milder air surges back.

Looks short-lived though. The Greenland Block is still expected to form, pinning the cold in the Northeast for the foreseeable future. I've said it once before and I'll say it again: if we sit in this pattern long enough, it's only a matter of time before a storm spins up and whacks us with snow.

There I said it.

Enjoy the weekend.


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<![CDATA[How Much Snow Will We Get? necn's Winter Forecast]]>Wed, 22 Nov 2017 11:25:47 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/LKN_WEB_WINTER_FORECAST_PRECIP+%281%29.png

It’s around this time every year that the talk about weather shifts to the inevitable question: “What do you think winter will be like this year?”

This age-old question is one every member of our weather team at NBC Boston and necn hears, and every meteorologist is happy to take a stab at.


Of course, we take these educated guesses within the framework of statistics — and the numbers aren’t strongly in our favor/ While seasonal forecasts are, thankfully, correct more than 50 percent of the time, it’s not by much.

“Winter forecasts are a tough nut to crack,” says meteorologist Pete Bouchard, “Say mild, and everyone expects rain. Say cold, and everyone expects snow. Say what you will, but I’ve always thought seasonal forecasts are too difficult to sum up in a few sentences — never mind how they are perceived by the public. A couple of big snowstorms, and everyone thinks it was a snowy winter.”


While our team crafts New England’s only 10-day forecast with average error of only 4 to 5 degrees a week and a half out, even those forecasters who devote their entire lives to seasonal forecasting only get marginally better results than a coin flip. Still, that does mean the forecasts are right more than they are wrong, and getting better as technology — and our understanding of the atmosphere — improves.

So, with the largest weather team in New England, does this give us an advantage, or just a lot of different opinions? Fortunately, much like our 10-day forecasts, our team is mostly on the same page, and eager to merge our ideas when they differ:

Tim Kelley starts out by looking back over the weather that got us to where we are now.

“Last winter was what I call the whiplash winter, we built up the greatest snow-pack, the fastest since 1969, in the mountains of Northern New England. Then a mid-February 'heatwave' eroded 30 to 60 percent of that snow."

"Then in an amazing comeback, we actually had a typical March, which was snowier than most of the other months of winter for the higher elevations of the northeast.” Tim continues. “As summer set in, the thing that struck me most was how cold it was in Quebec, Labrador, and Greenland, where it seemed like the snow was never going to end. There was a giant iceberg of Newfoundland for most of June and July — I wondered if it completely melted at all. That cold pattern had me recalling the summers of both 2013 and 2014. In each of those summers it seemed like winter never ended in northern and eastern Canada. The following two winters were extreme, 2013-2014 in the Great Lakes, then 2014-2015 in New England.”


Although past performance doesn’t equate to a predictor in the world of weather, our team does use what are called “analogs” in our forecasts, both day-to-day and looking at seasons ahead. Analog patterns are similar patterns that happened in the past: when did the jet stream look like this? When did the temperature pattern across the country, the hemisphere, the globe look like this? What type of weather was observed in those similar setups in the past, and does it seem possible that could happen again? If you can find an analog, you have a metaphorical thread you can pull to see what might unravel.

Tim chimes in again, pulling that thread: “At the Blue Hill Observatory, 2017 was the warmest October on record, beating out 1947 and 1963, among other years. Looking back at the winter of 1947-1948, it was a record for snowfall up to that time, 63.2 inches at Central Park in New York City. The winter of 1963-1964 also evolved into an extreme winter, with heavy snows from Texas to the East Coast, including some all-time record snowfall, including a blizzard of note here in the Northeast in January, and the 'Crown of Winter’ storm in March. And this new record we tied this week in Boston for longest streak of 40 degree or warmer days at 201 consecutive days matches up — this warm streak tied 1968 as the longest such streak. The winter of 1968-1969 went on to be the snowiest winter on record (still standing) in the mountains of New England.” 

Not only can we gain insight from past years of weather, but also by looking at how the pattern is setting up now, in autumn. There was a time when the winter jet stream pattern would lock in for the season in November, giving a really good idea of how the season’s weather would shake out. That’s tougher now.

One reality I’ve noticed over the past several winters is the abundance of warmth in the atmosphere — with very noteworthy exceptions. The past several winters have shown above normal temperatures for so much of the Northern Hemisphere, but always with a couple of persistent, almost semi-permanent pools of colder-than-normal air and associated snow. That same pattern has already set up over the last few months, seen in the map here — a display of how warmer and colder-than-normal atmospheric temperature through the lowest 20,000 feet, averaged over the last three months.


Notice all of the warm colors — lots of warmer-than-normal places and very small colder-than-normal areas. This makes it pretty tough to get a colder than normal winter, because even the more intense bursts of cold are relatively small and remain transient.

Michael Page agrees: “Given the atmospheric setup, it seems like a very good bet winter will end up being warmer-than-average on the whole, even with typical colder periods mixed in.”

Pete adds, “While the cold will be short-lived, the warm-ups will dominate longer thanks to frequent flexes from what we call stratospheric warming (brought about by diminished ice in the Arctic).” That stratospheric warming — warming in very high altitudes — has been shown to send bundles of extremely cold air southward from the North Pole, and was a driving force behind the now-infamous “Polar Vortex.”

Jackie Layer came to Boston from the Midwest, and remembers that intense cold well: “My first winter in the Midwest back in 2013-2014, which finished in the top five snowiest and coldest on record for northern Indiana and southwest Michigan, even the Great Lakes reached a new record high in terms of percentage of the lakes that froze over."

"I will never forget just how cold -40 degree wind chills felt when I had to start my car multiple times overnight to ensure that: 1) my car wasn’t completely covered by blowing and drifting snow, 2) frozen shut (the trunk was completely frozen shut by 10 p.m.), and 3) it would be drivable when I had to go into work the next morning at 4 a.m."

Keep in mind: if our team is right and we see warmer-than-normal temperatures with incursions of intense cold from time to time, those warm/cold clashes create storms, meaning incursions of cold will increase the likelihood for periods of moisture-laden, active storms.

“At the same time,” adds Tim, “thanks to such a warm first part of autumn, the sea surface temperatures off the eastern United States are well above climatological average. Also, the Great Lakes have some of the warmest water we've ever seen for this time of year. When extra cold air moves over extra cold water we can expect extra strong storms.”


Chris Gloninger says Northern Hemisphere warmth has already had an impact, even this early in the snow season — overseas — but has shown signs of turning around in the last few weeks. “During my time in college at Plymouth State (University), I studied patterns to try and accurately predict seasonal snowfall. One of those methods? Looking at snow cover thousands of miles away in Eurasia! With data reaching back to 1970, you can find a recurring pattern —when there is significant snowfall across Eurasia early in the season, expect a snowy winter in New England."

"Well, if you were looking to make this forecast in early October, there would have been a lot of disappointed snow lovers. In the recent weeks, we saw a MAJOR turnaround. There has been a significant amount of snow in that part of the world. So, if you look at that statistic, expect average to above average snowfall this winter!”

Chris isn’t alone in looking outside the country for clues — Tim focuses on Canada.

“And the most recent development is early this November, the northern hemispheric snow cover going one standard deviation above 'normal' in the first six days of the month," Tim says. "Across Canada and the northwestern United States, the early November snow cover is close to two standard deviation's above climatological average. That means that any discharge from the north pole is going to be crossing land that's covered with snow and ice, therefore delivering shots of colder weather than you might normally see this time of year."

In our weather specials over the past year, Pete covered New England’s historic drought extensively, but he agrees with Chris that we should see above normal precipitation this winter, and probably above normal snow in a fluctuating pattern.

“With global warming pulling the strings, no three months are the same and no theme seems to resonate for the entire season," Pete says. "We’ll see our fair share of snow — likely running above normal thanks to jacked up storms — but we’ll have our outrageous thaws and at least one or two numbing blasts of arctic air. While the cold will be short-lived, the warm-ups will dominate longer thanks to frequent flexes from what we call stratospheric warming (brought about by diminished ice in the Arctic). With La Niña at play, the West (U.S. and Canada) is favored for more frequent spells of cold and we’re favored for warmth. But here’s the catch. Weak La Niñas favor more acute regions of cold/warm, while strong La Niñas seem to mellow the extremes and flood the Lower 48 with mild air.”


La Niña? La Niña is the opposite of El Niño, but both represent changes in Pacific ocean temperature and barometric pressure. In an El Niño weather pattern, warm ocean water expands across the Pacific Ocean, near the equator, while La Niña sees colder water temperatures. With the Pacific Ocean so expansive, changes in water temperature surely can mean changes in atmospheric steering wind, too, and that can alter weather patterns, especially in North America.

"With the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center issuing an announcement in early October that a La Niña Oscillation is likely panning out in the equatorial Pacific,” adds Jackie, “that pattern usually slides the Jetstream across the Midwest, slightly southward tapping into the Tennessee Valley, and then northward into New England, as opposed to an El Niño pattern that would favor a polar jet stream to slide it’s way southward into northern New England and oscillate southward at times.”

Noting the abundant warmth could make above-normal snowfall a challenge, Michael adds, “I have a hard time seeing anything to suggest we’re in for a super snowy year; seems like near normal (with a little wiggle room on either side) is reasonable.”


Personally, I tend to agree for Southern New England, in particular, as the warm ocean water and the warm atmosphere, in general, argue for multiple events of snow changing to mix or rain this winter, especially if storm tracks resembling our rare, damaging wind “sou’easter” continue — even a shift just off the coastline as nor’easters could make it tough to hold big cold in Southern New England when storms come calling.

Of course, we all realize that when it comes to seasonal snowfall, one or two extreme storms can make literally all the difference.

“Add up all of these factors, and it leads me to believe that we are going to have an extreme winter. Very powerful storms, with more than one blizzard. Also, strong, cold high-pressure systems that pass to our north generate lower layer heavy cold air in the valleys of New England, so I would also expect a serious ice storm or two,” adds Tim.

Jackie adds support. "With the fluctuating temperatures, I wouldn’t be surprised with a couple of ice storms.”

In set-ups like these, often we see a zone of heavy snow well north of the storm track, so we’ll watch Southern Canada and Northern New England to fall into a heavier snow belt, north of the mixed precipitation zone.

So, putting it all together, our NBC Boston and necn weather team calls for warmer-than-average temperatures overall this winter, interrupted by a few surges of intense cold.

Multiple mixed precipitation events — some of the storms intense to extreme — will make for more precipitation than normal, and, particularly as the occasional surges of intense cold depart, the ingredients will be in place for a blizzard or two as the cold/warm clash rages, in a tendency back to warm.

This adds up to a solid ski and snowmobile season in the North Country, and a messy pattern favorable for slushy travel days in Central New England and big fluctuations in temperature, breeding extra potholes in Southern New England, even if the depth of snow on the ground is more limited than in some years for those southern areas.


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<![CDATA[Near Record Cold Possible]]>Fri, 10 Nov 2017 17:06:05 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/DOPdL37VAAAmQ-4.jpg

Snow, wind, and near record cold possible... hello, November in New England! With a powerful cold front bringing snow squalls to northern New England this morning, to a wintry blast by the afternoon with wind and cold, it will certainly feel like it’s late December than early November.

After the cold front clears the region by 11 a.m., skies will start to clear and temperatures will start to take a tumble.

The high temperatures will be observed in the morning hours. By midday, temperatures will already be in the upper teens along the Canadian border and into the 20s-low 30s elsewhere. Not to mention that the wind chill will be into the teens by midday as the wind howls out of the northwest, with gusts up to 40-45 mph possible.

By 5 p.m. Friday evening, temperatures will be in the 20s for most, with a few areas north into the mid to upper teens. The cold will continue to sink southward Friday night into early Saturday with most locations sliding into the teens for overnight lows.

Saturday afternoon brings high temperatures back into the mid to upper 30s and Sunday features a slight warm-up with highs into low to mid-40s under a mix of sun and clouds.

Monday features the next chance for scattered rain showers with highs into the mid to upper 40s.

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<![CDATA[Arctic Blast Bringing Bitter Temps on Friday]]>Fri, 10 Nov 2017 04:38:41 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/necn+wx+110917+5+pm.jpg

An arctic blast will be knocking on our doorstep overnight tonight into tomorrow morning.

This powerful cold front will not only bring near record cold to New England, it will also bring strong winds with gusts up to 45 mph possible Friday. This has prompted a Wind Advisory for most of New England, and with a wind out of the northwest, you can expect dangerously cold wind chills into the teens and single digits Friday night.

A Winter Weather Advisory has also been issued for the Crown of Maine as snow squalls are expected along this front after midnight and through 8am Friday morning, reducing visibility, creating icy roadways, and some snow accumulation. One to 3 inches of snow is possible in far northern New England including northern New Hampshire, northeast Vermont, and northern Maine. Not everyone will see snow, but everyone will feel the arctic blast.

After the cold front clears the region by 11 a.m. Friday, skies will start to clear and temperatures will start to take a tumble.

The high temperatures tomorrow will be observed in the morning hours. By midday, temperatures will already be in the upper teens along the Canadian border and into the 20s-low 30s elsewhere. By 5 p.m. Friday evening, temperatures will be in the 20s for most, with a few areas north into the mid to upper teens. The cold will continue to sink southward Friday night into early Saturday with most locations sliding into the teens for overnight lows.

Saturday afternoon brings high temperatures back into the mid to upper 30s and Sunday features a slight warm-up with highs into low to mid 40s under a mix of sun and clouds. Monday features the next chance for scattered rain showers with highs into the mid to upper 40s.

Be sure to stay up to date with the very latest weather updates on the air, online, and on-the-go with the NBC Boston/necn app.

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<![CDATA[Powerful Cold Front to Deliver Snow, Rain Squalls]]>Thu, 09 Nov 2017 17:14:40 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/ThursdayNBC.jpg

After another chilly start, Thursday brings slight moderation as most of us will make a run at 50 degrees ahead of a powerful cold front that will deliver a round of Thursday evening and night snow squalls to Northern New England and a rain squall for the rest of us.

The snow squalls in the North Country will drop one to three inches of snow on snowmobile trails in the far north – not enough to fire up the engines but enough to ring the starting bell at least. This will make some roads slick overnight and into early Friday morning.

All of New England feels the impact of the cold front by Friday – highs only in the 30s with a wind chill in the 20s most of the day!

Equally cold air persists Saturday but with less wind both Friday and Saturday will likely break some record cold high temperatures.

Sunday brings some sun and clouds with highs into the 40s and a returning chance of showers to start off the next work week before a slight warm-up back into the low 50s by next Thursday.

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<![CDATA[Temps Take a Plunge Tonight; Freeze Warnings Issued]]>Thu, 09 Nov 2017 00:09:37 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/BOSTONDMA-ASI1-48_1315463520720310000.jpg

Temperatures take a plunge yet again tonight under a starlit sky. Freeze warnings have been issued for southern coastal areas that have escaped a deep freeze up until now – with lows below freezing, mainly near 30 or even into the 20s.

Thursday brings slight moderation as most of us will make a run at 50 degrees ahead of a powerful cold front that will deliver a round of Thursday evening and night snow squalls to Northern New England, and a rain squall for the rest of us. The snow squalls in the North Country will drop 1-3 inches of snow on snowmobile trails in the far north – not enough to fire up the engines but enough to ring the starting bell, at least, and will make some roads slick overnight into early Friday morning.

All of New England feels the impact of the cold front by Friday – highs only in the 30s with a wind chill in the 20s most of the day. Equally cold air persists Saturday but with less wind, but, both Friday and Saturday will likely break some record cold high temperatures.

Sunday brings some sun and clouds with highs into the 40s and a returning chance of showers to start off the next work week before a slight warm-up back into the low 50s by next Thursday.

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<![CDATA[Freeze Warnings Issued for Parts of Southern New England]]>Wed, 08 Nov 2017 16:49:38 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/LKN_ACCUMS_NEWENG_ACTIVE13.png

Did it snow in your town last night? Much of interior Southern New England saw snowflakes mixing in, and in some cases changing over entirely, for a brief time Tuesday night. Behind that disturbance has come a reinforcing shot of fall chill, holding today’s high temperatures in the 40s with wind chill values only around 40 at the warmest time of the day.

Stubborn clouds have been the result of cold air moving across our relatively warm ocean waters and creating ocean-effect clouds ... with earlier morning ocean-effect rain showers now gone from the South Shore and Cape Cod. Expect a cold night tonight – freeze warnings have been issued for South Coastal areas that have escaped a deep freeze up until now – with lows in the 20s.

Thursday brings slight moderation as most of us will make a run at 50 degrees ahead of a powerful cold front that will deliver a round of Thursday evening and night snow squalls to Northern New England, and a rain squall for the rest of us. The snow squalls in the North Country will drop one to three inches of snow on snowmobile trails in the far north – not enough to fire up the engines but enough to ring the starting bell, at least, and will make some roads slick overnight into early Friday morning.

All of New England feels the impact of the cold front by Friday – highs only in the 30s with a wind chill in the 20s most of the day! Equally cold air persists Saturday, but with less wind, ahead of some moderation Sunday and a returning chance of showers to start next week in the Early Warning Weather 10-day Forecast.

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<![CDATA[Chilly With Emerging Sunshine]]>Wed, 08 Nov 2017 07:22:07 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/WedAMBlog.jpg

After another chilly start, the day will begin cloudy in southern New England with a few ocean-effect rain showers over the Cape. By the afternoon, emerging sunshine is expected with highs into the 40s.

Quiet weather sticks around through Thursday before Friday brings the pool of cold air from the north-northwest after a cold front slides in, ushering in the coldest air of the season. It will be the coldest air since April Fool’s Day 2017 for most locations.

Along that cold front, there is a possibility for some showers, some in the form of flurries into far northern New England late Thursday into early Friday. Highs Friday only reach into the upper 30s and that cold air sticks around for the first half of the weekend.

At least high temperatures rebound into the 40s by the second half of the weekend. The weekend features plenty of sunshine Saturday, a few more clouds Sunday ahead of a chance for showers late Sunday into early Monday.

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<![CDATA[Get Ready for Temps to Drop Later This Week]]>Tue, 07 Nov 2017 16:43:30 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/necn+wx+110717.jpg

It’s starting to finally feel like November region-wide. We even saw a few snow flurries in Vermont earlier today.

Get ready for the coldest air of the season late this week. We’re talking high temperatures similar to temperatures this morning. But, let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

This evening, we could get a few showers in southern New England, but these will not be widespread. Some of these showers have the chance to change over to a wintry mix into the higher elevations of central Massachusetts and the Berkshires, as overnight lows will flirt with the lower 30s in those locations. Otherwise, northern New England will see a gradual clearing of the skies, allowing lows to slip into the upper 20s for most. Any showers will slide off the coastline by morning, but a few ocean-effect showers are possible over the Cape since winds will be out of the north to northeast Wednesday. We start off with clouds for southern New England, but we’ll have emerging sunshine by the afternoon. Highs across the region will be into the 40s.

Quiet weather sticks around through Thursday, before Friday brings the pool of cold air from the north-northwest after a cold front slides in, ushering in the coldest air of the season, the coldest air since April Fool’s Day 2017 for most locations. Along that cold front, there is a possibility for some showers, some in the form of flurries into far northern New England late Thursday into early Friday. Highs Friday only reach into the upper 30s and that cold air sticks around for the first half of the weekend. At least high temperatures rebound into the 40s by the second half of the weekend. The weekend features plenty of sunshine Saturday, a few more clouds Sunday ahead of a chance for showers late Sunday into early Monday.

In the meantime, stick with necn/NBC Boston for the very latest updates to your weather forecast and be sure to download the app to get alerts on-the-go.



Photo Credit: necn]]>
<![CDATA[Fall Chill to Bring Some Possible Snowflakes]]>Tue, 07 Nov 2017 12:52:41 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/LKN_NBCU_PTYPE.png

You won’t see us waving our arms around or jumping up and down over it, but believe it or not, it’s possible that a few flakes fly in New England tonight.

We can all feel the new, fall chill that’s moved into New England — it’s holding temperatures under 50 degrees today and with a steady wind from the north figured in — wind chill values hold at 40-45 degrees, even at the warmest time of the day.

By this evening, a storm center passing to our south throws just enough moisture northward into Southern New England for some light rain to develop around dinnertime in Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island. Near the South Coast, the steadiest precipitation will fall, but temperatures will be warm enough for all raindrops.

The farther north — particularly in the higher terrain of the Worcester Hills and Western Massachusetts — and perhaps into the Southern Green Mountains and Monadnock Region of New Hampshire, the colder the air will be, and indications are we will be just cold enough for some snowflakes to mix in with the raindrops, particularly in the higher terrain, between 8 p.m. and midnight. Of course, that far north, precipitation will be light enough and the ground warm enough that accumulations aren’t a topic for discussion, but an abrupt transition to a cooler pattern certainly is.

With chilly air in place Wednesday, highs won’t rise above the 40s, and this cool air blowing on a north wind will promote a few ocean-effect rain showers from the far South Shore onto Cape Cod, especially in the morning and midday. Some Thursday night mountain snow showers will accompany a cold front that delivers the coldest air of the season Friday into Saturday, before a chance of rain showers Sunday evening into Monday in our exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.

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<![CDATA[Cool November Air Moves In]]>Tue, 07 Nov 2017 07:12:09 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/LKN_FRONTS_BOSDMA+%2827%29.png

The front moving through last evening puts all the warm weather to rest with a shot of cool November air.

What's a bigger deal is that it is sustained cold. It will culminate into a winter-like airmass later this week as another front slides into New England. As a side note, there are NO storms brewing (yet) so we're not seeing a sync between the cold and precipitation (translated: no accumulating snow expected).

For the time being, the cool air will be accompanied by heavy clouds. That's the real reason behind the dramatic drop-off today and tomorrow. Granted it is the cloudiest month of the year, so this is to be expected.

After a little respite from the cold, the second — and more significant — shot of chill will arrive by Friday. It's then that we feel the full brunt of early winter. Highs will struggle to get above freezing with a gusty, icy wind. We’re thinking wind chills in the teens and twenties!

Some easing of the cold is expected next weekend, but get ready to blast the heat late this week.

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<![CDATA[The Cold Comes for Us]]>Mon, 06 Nov 2017 23:54:29 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/10_DAY_ACTIVE_BOS24.png

It's become so common over the last several weeks that the days seem to have blurred together. Warmth here, warmth way over there. Multiple records falling across New England - and not just by a few degrees. Windows open, shorts and T-shirts. But now...

ENDGAME.

The front moving through this evening puts all that to rest with a shot of cool November air. What's a bigger deal is that it is sustained. It will culminate in a very cold airmass late this week. As a side note, there are NO storms brewing (yet) so we're not seeing a sync between the cold and precipitation (translated: no accumulating snow expected).

For the time being, the cool air will be accompanied by heavy clouds. That's the real reason behind the dramatic drop off between today and tomorrow. Granted it is the cloudiest month of the year, so this is to be expected.

After a little respite from the cold, the second - and more significant - shot of chill will arrive by Friday. It's then that we feel the full brunt of early winter. Highs will struggle to get above freezing with a gusty, icy wind.

Some easing of the cold is expected next weekend, but get ready to blast the heat late this week!

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<![CDATA[Record Warmth Expected on Showery Day]]>Mon, 06 Nov 2017 17:05:41 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/4am_Weather_Forecast_11617.jpg

Record warmth is expected for Monday as temperatures will reach the low 70s. The record high for the day in Boston is 73 degrees.

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm will be possible throughout the afternoon. We are looking at a four or a five hour window for the rain.

Our warm stretch will come to an end by Tuesday. Between Tuesday and the following Wednesday, temperatures will range from the mid 40s to around 50 degrees during the day. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to drop into the 30s. Boston has yet to drop below 40 degrees this season.

Showers are possible towards the end of the week but don't expect anything widespread. The weekend looks mainly dry, but we might see a sprinkle on Sunday. Shower chances return early the following week.

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<![CDATA[Clouds Dominate, Temperatures Well Above Normal]]>Sun, 05 Nov 2017 12:58:07 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/11517+wx+blog+mid+morning.png

A powerful storm is tracking west and north of New England on Sunday.

Storms that track west of us usually have a wind from the southwest and temperatures warm up, which is what is gradually happening Sunday. The wind up high in the sky is from the southwest, but the wind down near the ground is more from the east and southeast, eventually coming from the south. This low level air off of the ocean is somewhat cool, but will gradually warm Sunday afternoon and overnight into Monday.

It's a cloudy day, thanks to a warm front passing over New England. We also have a spot shower with temperatures topping out 50 degrees north and close to 60 degrees south.

At the same time to our west, from Illinois to Ohio and Pennsylvania, strong to severe thunderstorms are happening Sunday afternoon. These storms are the leading edge of colder air that will move in Monday night. Ahead of that cold front, temperatures will stay well above normal with lows near 60 degrees Sunday night, and highs Monday near 70 degrees.

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm will accompany that weakening front, here on Monday. The period of rain should last about an hour or two, crossing from northwest to southeast through the day.

Localized rainfall amounts of a quarter to a half inch are possible, but most of us likely get about a tenth. Colder wind arrives Monday night under a clearing sky, with low temperature in the 30s north and 40s south early Tuesday.

High pressure from southern Canada would dominate mostly dry air and fairly chilly temperatures, for most of the rest of the week. Daytime highs generally in the 40s, and nighttime lows generally in the 20s and 30s.

The temperature gradient between wintry chill in Canada and pretty warm air near The Gulf of Mexico is fairly high stakes for forecasting errors toward the weekend and next week. At this time it looks like northern cold will stay disconnected from the southern moisture and energy supply. So any storms this week should miss to the north and to the south.

But we cannot let our eye off the pattern for even a minute, as it's a delicate balance with no big storms but the bust potential is fairly high.

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<![CDATA[Cloudy Day With Possible Showers]]>Sun, 05 Nov 2017 07:16:39 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/212*120/11517+wx+blog.png

Clouds will win out for our Sunday with a possible shower during the afternoon. Temperatures will climb in the upper 50s.

Monday we will see near record warmth with high temperatures climbing into the low 70s. The record high temperature in Boston on Monday is 73 degrees so we will be watching that closely. Showers and even a thunderstorm will be possible during the afternoon.

The remainder of the week looks quiet with temperatures around 50 through Thursday. By Friday we will see a much cooler air mass that will linger into Saturday. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 40s with overnight lows in the 30s. Temperatures moderate slightly for the second half of the weekend and into that next week, and we will hover around 50 degrees.

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<![CDATA[A Very Warm Autumn So far]]>Sat, 04 Nov 2017 22:52:17 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/warm1.jpg

It felt a bit more like autumn today. In Boston, the temperature climbed to 75° on Friday with overnight low temperatures in the low 50s. Average high temperatures are typically in the 50s in early November.

Temperatures on Saturday stayed in the low 50s. We will have another cool day on Sunday, but we will warm up once again by Monday. The record high temperature in Boston on Monday is 73°, which was set back in 2015. It’s possible we could tie that record. Showers and thunderstorms are possible, but if they hold off long enough, temperatures may climb into the mid 70s.

It’s been a very warm autumn so far. If you look at the days since September 1st, temperatures have been above average 81 percent of the time! October was the second warmest on record in Boston. If you combine September and October – they were the warmest in history. The average temperature was 64.2°.

Cooler air will return by the end of the week. High temperatures on Friday could stay in the 30s for some areas. This too will be short lived. We are expecting another warm up after the three day cool down.

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<![CDATA[Cooler Weekend With Monday Warm-Up]]>Sat, 04 Nov 2017 11:34:11 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/DNxz4SLXcAAZIv3.jpg

It feels like fall again across New England, at least for a couple of days.

Cooler air flowing in from Canada will keep high temperatures in the 40s and 50s across New England on Saturday, with dim sunshine overhead. Clouds will increase and thicken late in the day, and especially at night.

Between the building, clouds keep an eye out for this month’s full "beaver" moon. This is usually the time of year beavers prepare for winter, giving the moon its name.

Also be sure to set your clocks back one hour tonight at 2 a.m. This is also a good opportunity to check the batteries in both your smoke and carbon monoxide detectors.

Due to the time change sunrise will be earlier tomorrow, around 6:20 a.m for many. Sunset will come earlier, around 4:30 p.m.

Skies will stay mostly cloudy on Sunday, but there will be lots of dry hours. A few spotty showers will move through from time to time, with the steadiest showers in Northern New England. A few wet flakes may mix in there, but that wouldn’t last long since the showers mark warmer air trying to move back in. Highs will reach the 50s and low 60s.

By Monday the wind is gusty out of the southwest and highs pop into the 60s and 70s again. A cold front will drop through New England during the day, bringing a line of showers and downpours with it. The rain arrives during the morning north and during the afternoon south.

Cool sunshine returns on Election Day, continuing right into the middle and end of next week when highs will likely stay locked in the 30s and 40s.

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<![CDATA[Mild With Increasing Clouds]]>Sat, 04 Nov 2017 08:44:42 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/SaturdayAM+blog.jpg

After a chilly start, a shock to the system after a couple unseasonably warm day and nights, high temperatures only reach into the 50s, which is much closer to normal for this time of the year. High pressure slides in for Saturday, making Saturday the pick of the weekend since it starts off bright before a few clouds slide in by the afternoon.

Don’t forget to change the clocks back one-hour before bed late Saturday night, since Daylight Saving Time ends early Sunday morning.

Speaking of Sunday, rain and even a few mountain snow showers closer to the Canadian border are possible with an approaching front from the Midwest. A warm front late Sunday into early Monday brings a quick warm-up to start the work week, but this warm-up is short-lived as a cold front sweeps from northwest to southeast Monday afternoon and evening. This front brings another round of rain showers Monday afternoon.

The cold front clears the region by Tuesday, making for a cooler and drier midweek. Tuesday highs reach into the 50s, with Wednesday and Thursday likely into the 40s for highs.

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<![CDATA['Hunter's Moon' in the Night Sky Friday]]>Fri, 03 Nov 2017 16:11:22 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/Hunters+Moon+NBC.jpg

You can expect a bright orb in the night sky again tonight, and no, it’s not a shooting star, it’s the first full moon of November. Also known as the "Hunter’s Moon,” characterized by the first full moon after the "Harvest Moon."

Plus, overnight tonight, skies will clear after increasing cloud cover and some rain showers slide through. If you’re trying to catch a glimpse of some shooting stars tonight though, make sure to bundle up. Overnight lows will quickly drop as fast as the skies clear after the cold front slips off the coastline, taking the clouds, the warmth, and the showers with it. 

Next weekend is when the Taurid Meteor Shower is likely to peak. However, the Taurid Meteor Shower is known for its low meteor per hour rate, when you catch a glimpse of one, it’s a marvelous sight. It’s a bright fireball flying across the sky and can even be seen during a full moon.

Next weekend, the moon phase will be a waning crescent, which is not quite as illuminated as the full moon, about 43 percent to be precise. However, just because we say that the meteor shower "peaks" at a certain time doesn’t mean you will not be able to see a shooting star associated with the Taurid’s before or after that peak.

If you spot one and can take a photo, feel free to share those photos with us by sending it to shareit@necn.com or shareit@nbcboston.com. Don’t forget your name and location, so we can give you a shoutout on the air. 



Photo Credit: NBC Boston]]>
<![CDATA[Cold Front Approaching, Goodbye Daylight Savings]]>Fri, 03 Nov 2017 22:49:09 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/weather01.jpg

Cold front coming through!

After another unseasonably warm day region-wide, nearly record-breaking for some locations, the warm air-mass that has brought 70s back to the area is now clashing with the approaching cold front, which has built in the cloud cover and a few downpours. This cold front is quick to move out, and the cooler air sinks in overnight as the clouds, the warmth, and the rain gets pulled out to sea along with the front. Temperatures are expected to take a tumble around midnight with lows in the lower 30s north, upper 30s south under a starlit-sky and a full Hunter’s Moon.

For the weekend, high temperatures only reach into the 50s, which is much closer to normal for this time of the year. High pressure slides in for Saturday, making the first day of the weekend the pick of the weekend since it starts off bright, before a few clouds slide in by the afternoon.

Don’t forget to change the clocks back one-hour before bed late Saturday night, since Daylight Saving Time ends early Sunday morning.

Speaking of Sunday, rain and even a few mountain snow showers closer to the Canadian border are possible with an approaching front from the Midwest. A warm front late Sunday into early Monday brings a quick warm-up to start the work week, but this warm-up is short-lived as a cold front sweeps from northwest to southeast Monday afternoon and evening. This front brings another round of rain showers Monday afternoon.

The cold front clears the region by Tuesday, making for a cooler and drier midweek. Tuesday highs reach into the 50s, with Wednesday and Thursday likely into the 40s for highs.

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<![CDATA[Report: Temperatures May Rise Nearly 10 Degrees by 2100]]>Fri, 03 Nov 2017 13:59:43 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/Fourth+National+Climate+Assessment+graphic.jpg

A newly-released report on climate change warns that without dramatic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, temperatures may rise nearly 10 degrees, and seas may rise up to eight feet by the end of this century. 

The figures were made public on Friday with the release of the Fourth National Climate Assessment, a congressionally mandated document issued every four years. 

The report is based off the latest climate research from some of the nation's top scientists. 

Globally, the report says, temperatures have risen an average of 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) over the past 115 years. 

That makes this period the warmest in the history of modern civilization, it continues. 

Researchers say it is "extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of this observed warming since the mid-20th century." 

The report says there is no convincing alternative explanation. 

That warming has also contributed to an average sea level rise of 7 to 8 inches since 1900. Three inches of that rise has happened since 1993, according to the report.

By the end of the century the report warns that sea levels may rise as much as eight feet. At the very least a rise of 1 to 4 feet is expected by 2100, with a several inch rise in the next 15 years alone. 

The report also says that without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions global temperatures may rise as much as 9 degrees Fahrenheit (5 degrees Celsius) this century. 

With a major reduction in emissions the warming may be limited to a 3.6 degree Fahrenheit increase (2 degrees Celsius), it adds. 

An international agreement reached in Paris in 2015 strives to keep global warming capped at 2 degrees Celsius. 

President Donald Trump has since said the United States will withdraw from that agreement. 

As of this year, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has exceeded 400 parts per million. The report says that is the highest level seen in some 3 million years, a time when sea levels were significantly higher than today and when the world was much warmer. 

The report adds that many impacts of climate change are already being felt in the United States. Heavy rain events are increasing in intensity and frequency, heat waves are becoming more common, and prolonged cold stretches are becoming less common. 



Photo Credit: Fourth National Climate Assessment]]>
<![CDATA[Passing Cold Front Brings Spell of Rain]]>Fri, 03 Nov 2017 15:46:39 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/Friday+LKN_FRONTS_BOSDMA+%2826%29.png

Though a spell of rain is moving from west to east across Northern New England associated with a passing cold front today, Southern New England stays mostly dry until the front actually arrives during the late afternoon and early evening.

Ahead of the cold front, the southern half of New England is enveloped in mild air, with high temperatures around 70 degrees and a gusty southwest wind reaching 30 mph at times as limited sun breaks through clouds. You’ll know the cold front moves through early this evening as building clouds with scattered, quick showers move through and the wind shifts to start blowing from the northwest.

The new wind will carry new air into New England overnight tonight, dropping low temperatures into the 30s for many as skies clear, leading to a crisp fall day Saturday with high temperatures not exceeding the lower to middle 50s.

Sunday won’t be much warmer, but for a very different reason — clouds and scattered showers will hold down the temperature... and some of the showers may be mixed with snowflakes near the Canada border!

Warmth returns again for a one-day stint on Monday — highs near 70 like today ahead of a passing cold front that will trigger an afternoon shower or thunderstorm before swinging some cool fall air into New England for the second half of the exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.

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<![CDATA[Mild Temps for Now, But Cooler Air, Showers on the Way]]>Fri, 03 Nov 2017 07:48:45 -0500https://media.necn.com/images/213*120/FriAMBlog.jpg

As the cold front slides in, a line of showers will form along it, sliding that line from northwest to southeast. Showers develop early in northern New England, with showers sliding southward through the afternoon, but these will be short-lived sprinkles and could even fizzle before they make it to far southern New England.

Highs Friday will be slightly warmer than Thursday’s warmth with temperatures into the low 70s south, upper 60s north.

However, the warmth bounces out by the weekend. High pressure slides in for Saturday after the front as the cooler air sinks in, we’ll see quiet weather for most of the weekend before showers slide in from the Midwest by Sunday afternoon and evening. Both weekend days will feature highs into the 50s.

Next week brings another week filled with roller coaster temperatures. This time as a warm front lifts in on Monday, highs will reach into the 60s Monday and drop into the 40s by midweek.

Not only are we tracking a cool down next week, but also an unsettled weather pattern with rain Monday with another chance for rain for southern New England late Wednesday and Thursday with the possibility of mountain snow north.

The extended forecast keeps highs temperatures near seasonable through the 10-day with highs into the low 50s to upper 40s through next weekend.

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