The S&P 500 closed slightly lower Friday, but clinched weekly gains as the latest economic data added to a positive picture of the economy.
The broad market index inched down by 0.07% to 4,890.97. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.36% to 15,455.36, hurt by a post-earnings slide in Intel. The Dow Jones Industrial Average bucked the trend by adding 60.30 points, or 0.16%, to 38,109.43, an all-time closing high. All three major averages are now up more than 100% from their pandemic lows.
Despite Friday's mixed session, the major averages recorded a winning week. The S&P 500 advanced around 1.1%, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed about 0.9%. The blue-chip Dow gained approximately 0.7%.
Friday's losses ended a six-day winning streak for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Through the end of Thursday's session, the benchmark S&P 500 had closed at a record high for five straight trading days, the longest streak of its kind since November 2021.
Stocks got a boost this week from encouraging economic data.
December's core personal consumption expenditures price index came in line with economists' forecasts month over month, but was slightly lower than anticipated on an annualized basis, data released Friday shows. It's a preferred gauge of inflation for the Federal Reserve, which sets monetary policy.
Friday's PCE print came a day after gross domestic product data revealed higher-than-expected economic growth in the fourth quarter. That bolstered investors' hopes that the economy has avoided a deep recession.
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"All the economic data — both the GDP and PCE — was good this week," said Rhys Williams, chief strategist at Spouting Rock Asset Management. "That was comforting to everybody. And I think it does show we're still in this potential 'Goldilocks' landing, where the economy softens a bit but is still positive."
But sell-offs among some well-known stocks on the back of earnings reports restricted gains this week.
Chipmaker Intel tumbled nearly 12% on Friday after offering a disappointing fiscal first-quarter outlook. KLA slid more than 6% in the session after the semiconductor company posted light guidance for its fiscal third quarter.
On the other hand, American Express rallied more than 7% after sharing a better-than-expected forecast for full-year earnings. That helped the 30-stock Dow mitigate losses from Intel's drop.
Elsewhere, Tesla, a retail investor darling, registered its worst week since October, declining 13.6% in the period. Shares took a leg down after the electric vehicle maker posted disappointing earnings and warned of trouble in 2024.
Nasdaq and S&P 500 close lower, snap win streak
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite finished Friday lower, ending a winning streak.
The indexes shed 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively. Both had finished the prior six trading days with gains.
The Dow bucked the trend, climbing 0.2%. The blue-chip index was helped by a post-earnings rally in American Express shares.
Despite the mixed session, all three indexes finished higher on the week.
— Alex Harring
HSBC: Nothing or everything can work in this market
There's two distinct market environments, according to HSBC.
"In recent months, markets have displayed a 'Goldilocks-On / Goldilocks-Off' pattern whereby either everything works, or nothing works," said Mark McDonald, the firm's head of data science and analytics, in a Thursday note to clients. "This has led to high, but unusual, correlations amongst asset classes, with little distinction amongst the directions in which typically disparate asset classes move."
More specifically, McDonald said the market has fallen into one of the following scenarios in recent months:
- "Nothing works": This was seen between August and October, when most major asset classes tracked by HSBC dropped. In this environment, he said there's "almost nowhere to hide from an asset allocation perspective."
- "Everything works": This backdrop was experienced over the last three months, when nearly all asset classes besides commodities have gained value. As the name suggests, most areas of the market tend to perform well during this period.
— Alex Harring
TradeStation says soft landing 'increasingly evident'
A soft landing appears "increasingly evident" after the latest inflation data shows price pressures are easing, even as consumer spending accelerates, said David Russell, global head of market strategy at online investing platform TradeStation.
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric, the core price consumptions expenditures index, rose 0.2% in December month over month.
"The big question now is how quickly Jerome Powell will normalize policy when there's no immediate need," he said. "The data matters less going forward and internal conversations at the Fed matter more."
— Michelle Fox
The S&P 500 has high chance of ending January on a positive note, data shows
After a shaky start to the year, the S&P 500 has since cinched five straight record closes and has rallied 2.7% so far this month.
Friday's trading session marks the start of the last four trading days in January. When the S&P 500 has entered the last four trading days in the green, it has historically also finished the month off positively, according to data from Bespoke Investment Group.
Data from 1953 to 2023 shows that when the S&P 500 entered the last four trading days up more than 2%, it closed in the green 66.7% of the time, with a median performance of 0.63%.
— Lisa Kailai Han
S&P 500 near flat entering final trading hour, but indexes poised to close week higher
The S&P 500 flickered around flat as the final trading hour of the day and week kicked off, but stocks were still tracking to end the week with gains.
While the broad index was little changed, the Dow climbed around 0.2% while the Nasdaq Composite slipped by 0.2%.
Still, all three were slated to end the week in the green. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are on pace to finish higher by more than 1% each, while the Dow has added 0.6%.
Yet the S&P 500 sitting near its flatline puts some streaks at risk. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have climbed for the past six sessions. And the S&P 500 has closed at a record high for five straight trading days, the longest streak of its kind since November 2021.
— Alex Harring
Tesla on pace for worst week since October
Tesla shares have plummeted more than 14% this week, putting the electric vehicle maker on pace for its worst weekly performance since October, when it shed 15.6%.
Shares fell more than 12% on Thursday alone, after the company posted disappointing quarterly results after the bell Wednesday and warned of slower growth.
Tesla shares have plummeted more than 26% since the start of January and are headed for their worst monthly performance since December 2022. Shares cratered 36.7% that month.
— Samantha Subin
Investors are shifting into high quality corporate credit, Bank of America says
Investors appear to be re-organizing their bond portfolios in the new year. Bank of America credit strategist Yuri Seliger said in a Jan. 24 note that high grade credit funds are on track for their biggest monthly inflows since January 2021.
"Bond fund / ETF flows tend to follow returns with about a month lag. Therefore, the big rally in interest rates during November and December has resulted in a big inflow to high grade in January," Seliger said.
The move into this type of bond fund could be a sign that investors are willing to move out of Treasurys and money market funds to take on more risk, while also preparing for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Read more about which funds are seeing inflows on CNBC Pro.
— Jesse Pound
Recent economic data is good, but don't expect rate cut at next week's Fed meeting, market participants say
Market pros have applauded gross domestic product and personal consumption data released this week. But that doesn't mean they're expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the near future.
The two data points painted a picture of an economy that is cooling without being tipped into a recessionary phase, boosting investor optimism.
Still, traders are pricing in a more than 97% likelihood that the central bank leaves interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting next week, according to the CME FedWatch tool. And they have forecasted a probability of more than 52% that the cost of borrowing money will be kept the same at the March meeting, a sharp increase from around 17% a month ago.
Friday's PCE data "is clearly market friendly even if it doesn't suggest, at this point, that the Fed lowers rates at the March 20 meeting," said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial.
However, Krosby said rate cuts are a question of "when" and not "if," adding that the Fed will likely begin lowering interest levels during the May or June meetings.
Carson Group global market strategist Sonu Varghese agreed, saying he expects a series of decreases starting in May.
"The big picture is that the Fed doesn't need to worry that stronger economic growth will stoke inflation because it hasn't," he said.
— Alex Harring
Dow underperforms this week
The Dow is on pace to post smaller gains than the other major averages this week, as a handful of struggling stocks weighed on the blue-chip index.
The 30-stock index climbed about 0.5% so far this week. By comparison, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have gained upwards of 1% each.
Dow members diverged as investors reacted to their earnings reports.
IBM and American Express, for example, led the index higher with rallies of more than 9% each. Verizon was the next biggest gainer, rising more than 7%. All three reported earnings over the course of this week.
But those gains were somewhat mitigated by drops of more than 10% and 9% in 3M and Intel, respectively. Both also posted quarterly financial results this week.
— Alex Harring
Where the major averages stand heading into month-end
So far, the three major stock indexes have gained in 2024. Here's where they stand on the month ahead of the last week of trading in January:
- The S&P 500 is up 2.8%
- The Nasdaq Composite is up 3.4%
- The Dow is up 1.3%
On the other hand, the small-cap-focused Russell 2000 has retreated 2% this month.
— Lisa Kailai Han
Intel on pace for worst day since July 2020
Intel shares declined nearly 12% on Friday and headed their its worst one-day slump since July 2020, when the chipmaker declined about 16.2%.
The move in shares came after the company's fiscal first-quarter outlook fell short of Wall Street's expectations. Intel said it anticipated earnings per share of 13 cents on $12.2 billion to $13.2 billion in sales for the period. That's below the EPS forecast of 33 cents on $14.15 billion in revenue expected by analysts polled by LSEG.
Intel's stock is down more than 9% since the start of the week and on pace for its worst weekly performance since September.
— Samantha Subin
Stocks making the biggest moves midday
Check out the companies making notable moves in midday trading:
- Capital One Financial — Shares rose 4%, reaching a new 52-week high. On Thursday, Capital One posted fourth-quarter revenue of $9.51 billion, while analysts polled by LSEG called for $9.46 billion.
- Intel – The chipmaking stock shed 11% after issuing first-quarter guidance that fell short of Wall Street's expectations. On Thursday, Intel topped fourth-quarter results on the top and bottom lines but said it expects earnings per share of 13 cents on $12.2 billion to $13.2 billion in sales. LSEG expectations had called for EPS of 33 cents on $14.15 billion in revenue.
- Booz Allen Hamilton — Shares soared 12% after the company reported an earnings and revenue beat for its fiscal third quarter, per FactSet. Booz Allen Hamilton also raised its full-year earnings and revenue guidance, and raised its quarterly dividend by 8.5%. CEO Horacio Rozanksi said strong demand and growing headcount are fueling continued momentum.
The full list can be found here.
— Hakyung Kim
Northrop Grumman's Thursday selloff has created an attractive entry point, Morgan Stanley says
Northrop Grumman's Thursday selloff has created an attractive entry point for investors, according to Morgan Stanley.
The bank reiterated its overweight rating on the stock and named the firm as a top defense pick in a Friday morning note.
Shares of Northrop Grumman slid 6.3% on Thursday after the company reported that it took a $1.17 billion after-tax charge related to its next-generation B-21 bomber contract with the U.S. Air Force.
"We are moving NOC to our Top Defense Pick in part to foot-stomp what we see as an attractive entry point presented by yesterday's selloff," wrote Morgan Stanley analyst Kristine Liwag. "While NOC trades at a premium to peers, we see it as the defense ballast to own in uncertain times given its multi-year growth story, a credible margin expansion roadmap, and earnings visibility."
The analyst noted that she now sees the company's B-21 program as "significantly de-risked post-charge," adding that the profitability no longer seems to be a "runaway problem."
Liwag's price target of $579 implies that shares of Northrop Grumman could rally 33% from their Thursday close.
— Lisa Kailai Han
Oil on pace for best week since October on U.S. growth, China stimulus
Oil prices are on pace for the best week in months as U.S. economic growth and stimulus in China bolster hopes for more robust demand this year.
The West Texas Intermediate contract for March was last down 93 cents, or 1.2%, to trade at $76.43 a barrel. The Brent contract for March was last trading at $81.64 a barrel, down 79 cents or 0.96%.
But the benchmarks are both up about about 4% for the week, which puts them on pace for their best week since Oct. 13.
The U.S. reported robust economic growth for the fourth quarter at 3.3%, while China is lowering bank reserve requirements to boost growth.
— Spencer Kimball
Luxury stocks rise after LVMH reports better-than-expected sales
U.S.-traded shares of luxury groups rose Friday after LVMH's 2023 sales and revenue topped analysts' estimates.
LVMH, which owns Louis Vuitton, Moët & Chandon and Hennessy, as well as brands including Givenchy, Bulgari and Sephora, on Thursday night reported sales amounting to 86.15 billion euros ($93.34 billion) for 2023, exceeding consensus forecasts and equating to 13% organic growth from the previous year. Organic revenue was up 10% in the fourth quarter.
Shares of LVMH jumped 7% on Friday. Other luxury stocks were also boosted by the luxury giant's results, with U.S.-traded shares of Hermes, Richemont and Burberry rising more than 4% each.
— Hakyung Kim
These are the Nasdaq's biggest weekly winners
The Nasdaq Composite headed for its 12th positive week of the last 13 as technology stocks rose and some mega caps attained fresh highs.
Netflix was the biggest gainer in the index, surging 18% on the back of a strong quarterly print and subscriber numbers. ASML also gained 14% after the semiconductor equipment stock posted solid earnings. Other major winners included Fortinet and Paccar, last up about 9% and 8% respectively. Comcast and Constellation Energy both gained about 6%.
Alphabet's stock has added about 4% this week and hit fresh highs during Thursday's session. Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, Airbnb and Take-Two Interactive were last up more than 3% each on the week.
— Samantha Subin
Disclosure: Comcast owns NBCUniversal, the parent company of CNBC.
Only 3 S&P 500 sectors on track to end the week in the negative
After notching a record close for five trading days in a row, the S&P 500 is on track to end the week up more than 1%.
The index's gains have largely been led by the energy and communication services sectors, respectively up 4.6% and 4.1% on the week.
Just three of 11 total sectors are on pace to close the week in the negative, including health care, real estate and consumer discretionary stocks. These sectors are respectively down 0.3%, 0.6% and 1.8%.
The biggest loser this week in the consumer discretionary sector has been Tesla. Shares have fallen nearly 14% this week since the electric vehicle maker reported weak fourth-quarter revenue and warned of slowing growth in 2024. In response, several firms have taken a more cautious view on the stock.
— Lisa Kailai Han
Pending home sales accelerated much more than expected in December
Pending home sales unexpectedly shot higher in December as lower mortgage rates helped lure buyers back into the market.
The National Association of Realtors on Friday reported that its index measuring sales not yet completed lurched ahead by 8.3% for the month, well ahead of the Dow Jones estimate for a 2% increase. On an annual basis, the index rose 1.3% after being down 5.2% in November.
"The housing market is off to a good start this year, as consumers benefit from falling mortgage rates and stable home prices," said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. The 30-year mortgage rate stood at 6.69% as of Thursday, down from a 7.79% peak in late October, according to Freddie Mac.
—Jeff Cox
How this earnings season is going so far
Nearly one out of every four companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings thus far in the season. Many are surpassing Wall Street expectations.
About 24.7% of stocks in the S&P 500 have posted their quarterly financials, according to FactSet data from Friday shortly after the opening bell. Of those that have already reported, nearly 72% have beat consensus forecasts of analysts, data from the market analytics platform shows.
— Alex Harring
Stocks open lower
The three major indexes were lower as the final trading day of the week commenced.
The Dow and S&P 500 slipped about 0.1% each shortly after 9:30 a.m. ET. The Nasdaq Composite shed around 0.2%.
Despite the slides, the three indexes remain on track to finish the week higher.
— Alex Harring
Crypto climbs to end the week, ether set to post its worst week since August
Cryptocurrencies were up to finish the week as investors took some comfort in the idea that outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin ETF (GBTC) could be starting to taper off.
Bitcoin climbed more than 3% to $40,989.80 according to Coin Metrics. At one point Friday morning it rose to as much as $41,658. It's still down more than 1.5% for the week, however.
Ether was up by about 1% Friday, trading at $2,239.06. It's on pace, however, to post a nearly 10% decline for the week and its worst week since Aug. 18.
Outsized ether moves tend to follow big bitcoin moves. After finishing 2023 up 90%, compared to bitcoin's 157% gain, ether outperformed bitcoin in a bit of a catchup trade after the launch of ETFs earlier this month. This week as bitcoin dipped below $39,000 for the first time in seven weeks, ether suffered a much deeper cut.
— Tanaya Macheel
Fed's preferred inflation gauge rises 0.2% in December
The core price consumptions expenditures index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric, rose 0.2% in December month over month, matching a Dow Jones estimate. Year over year, core PCE was up 2.9%, slightly less than the 3% forecast.
— Fred Imbert
Intel, American Express among Friday's biggest movers
These are the stocks making the biggest moves before the bell:
- Intel — The chipmaker slumped more than 10% after issuing lower-than-expect first-quarter guidance.
- American Express — Shares added 3% after the company issued full-year guidance that topped expectations, although its fourth-quarter results were weaker than expected.
- T-Mobile — The telecommunications company declined 2% after posting mixed fourth-quarter results.
Read the full list of stocks on the move here.
— Samantha Subin
Norfolk Southern retreats on worse-than-expected earnings
Norfolk Southern slipped more than 1% before the bell after the rail transporter's earnings came in below Wall Street expectations.
The company earned $2.83 per share excluding items on a revenue of $3.07 billion in the fourth quarter. But analysts polled by LSEG had higher expectations, projecting EPS at $2.87 per share and revenue at $3.08 billion.
Shares are slightly above flat on the year.
— Alex Harring
JPMorgan Chase shuffles top leaders
Multiple executives eyed as potential successors to JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon had new or expanded jobs, the bank said Thursday.
Jennifer Piepszak and Marianne Lake are two bank leaders shifting their scopes. It's unclear if there is now a frontrunner for the chief executive role or if Dimon is intending to leave in the near term.
— Hugh Son
Stocks on pace to notch weekly gains
With just one session left in the trading week, the three major indexes are poised to finish higher.
The Dow has added 0.5%, while the broad S&P 500 has climbed 1.1%. Despite relatively muted gains on Thursday, technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite has outperformed this week with a jump of 1.3%.
Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have advanced for the past six sessions. The S&P 500 has closed at a fresh high for the last five trading days, the longest streak of its kind since November 2021.
— Alex Harring
American Express rises despite weaker-than-expected earnings
Shares of American Express popped more than 2% in the premarket even after the card issuer reported weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter results.
The company earned $2.62 per share on revenue of $15.8 billion. Analysts polled by LSEG expected a profit of $2.64 per share on revenue of $16 billion.
That said, the company issued full-year earnings guidance of $12.65 per share to $13.15 per share, beating a StreetAccount consensus estimate of $12.38 per share.
— Fred Imbert
China property stocks rally for second day, hit near four-week highs
China's property stocks extended gains on Friday, with the CSI 300 real estate sector hitting a near four-week high.
The index was last up 2.5% in morning trading, after rising nearly 6% on Thursday. It has gained nearly 12% in the last four sessions.
China's real estate stocks jumped in the previous session after the People's Bank of China along with the Ministry of Finance announced measures that would help boost the liquidity available to property developers.
The new measures will be valid until the end of 2024.
Shares of Hong Kong-listed Country Garden rose 1.4%, Logan Group gained 1.6% and CK Asset Holdings added 1.5%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Mainland Properties index rose 0.3% after climbing 4.3% in the last session.
— Shreyashi Sanyal
Bank of Japan in no hurry to change monetary policy stance, meeting minutes show
Japan's central bank will not terminate its negative interest rate and yield curve control policy based on "specific numerical values" including negotiations around wage increases.
According to minutes of the BOJ's December meeting, several board members said exiting from the NIRP and YCC will be "decided at each future meeting based on various data and information obtained at each point in time."
At the meeting, some members also expressed the view that the bank was currently not in a situation where it would "fall behind the curve" if it did not rush to raise policy interest rates.
The members added even if the BOJ made a decision once the labor-management wage negotiations conclude in spring 2024, "it would not be too late."
— Lim Hui Jie
Tokyo inflation softens for third straight month; core inflation lower than expected
The inflation rate in Japan's capital city of Tokyo fell to 1.6% in January, down from 2.4% in December.
Tokyo's inflation rate is widely considered to be a leading indicator of nationwide inflation trends in Japan.
Tokyo's core inflation rate, which strips out prices of fresh food, also came in at 1.6%, lower than the 1.9% expected by economists polled by Reuters and also lower then December's 2.1%.
The so called "core-core" inflation rate, which strips out fresh food and energy prices and is watched by the Bank of Japan, fell to 2.2% in January from 2.7%.
— Lim Hui Jie
Want to buffer your portfolio from a downturn? Step away from cash and into bonds, UBS says
Proactive investors will want to switch out of their cash-heavy positions now and get into bonds before the Federal Reserve begins cutting rates, said UBS's Mark Haefele.
The 100 largest money market funds are still yielding well over 5%, but those rates will come down as the Fed trims rates. Haefele, global chief investment officer for wealth management, said that in its base case UBS expects 8.5% returns for high-quality medium duration bonds, compared to 4.3% for cash.
Another reason to go for longer-term fixed income: In a hard landing situation, portfolio losses would be cushioned by those bonds. In a recession scenario, UBS anticipates equity markets could tumble more than 15% on a total return basis, but those losses would be curbed by a 16% rally in bonds.
A portfolio that is allocated 60% toward stocks and 40% in bonds would see just a 3% decline in this circumstance, Haefele said.
"Investors holding excessive cash would not be as well insulated in this scenario – cash does not 'rally, and the returns on rates would likely fall in this scenario,'" he wrote.
-Darla Mercado
Transportation stocks poised to catch a bid, MRB Partners says
With the downturn in freight shipments poised to reverse in 2024, partly due to low inventories spurring a revival in manufacturing output, transportation stocks should similarly rebound, according to a Thursday note from MRB Partners. Increased global trade should also give the stocks a boost, the researcher said.
Within the industry, MRB recommends air freight and logistics companies, saying, "the recent upswing in air freight revenue ton miles bodes well for the relative forward earnings of air freight stocks, which are also attractively valued."
Railroads and truckers, meanwhile, are being held in check by "muted growth in non-intermodal rail traffic, subdued pricing trends, and elevated relative valuations," MRB strategist Salvatore Ruscitti wrote.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average is higher by 2.3% so far this week and up 0.34% for the year thus far, exactly matching the S&P 500 this week but lagging the S&P's 2.6% gain in 2024.
— Scott Schnipper, Michael Bloom
Intel, AMD, Nvidia drag Nasdaq 100 futures lower
Shares of major semiconductor stocks dragged Nasdaq 100 futures lower on Thursday evening. The index sank by 0.5%, losing about 90 points in after-hours trading.
Semiconductor manufacturer Intel lost about 10% after reporting disappointing first-quarter guidance.
Shares of another semiconductor company, Advanced Micro Devices, sank more than 3%, while software and manufacturing equipment provider Applied Materials lost 2.3%. Semiconductor company KLA also shed 6% after posting lower-than-expected guidance for the fiscal third quarter, and Nvidia shed 1.7% on the back of the sector's declines.
— Pia Singh
Intel, Levi Strauss among companies moving in after-hours trading
Check out the companies making headlines in after-hours trading:
- T-Mobile — The telecommunications stock shed 2.9%% after T-Mobile missed on earnings expectations for the fourth quarter, but beat on revenue. The company posted $1.67 per share in earnings, while analysts polled by LSEG expected $1.90 per share. Revenue came out at $20.48 billion for the period, higher than the expected $19.64 billion according to LSEG.
- Intel — Shares of the chip manufacturer lost nearly 8% in after-hours trading after the company posted disappointing first-quarter guidance. Intel expects adjusted earnings of 13 cents per share for the first quarter of 2024, while analysts surveyed by LSEG called for 33 cents per share. Anticipated revenue of $12.2 billion to $13.2 billion also came short of analysts' expectations of $14.15 billion in revenue for the period.
- Levi Strauss — Shares of Levi Strauss declined nearly 1% after the apparel company said Thursday it will cut at least 10% of its global corporate workforce through restructuring efforts. The job cuts will happen in the first half of 2024, the company said. Fourth-quarter earnings also came out Thursday, with Levi's adjusted earnings per share beating estimates, but falling short on expectations for revenue.
For the full list, read here.
— Pia Singh
Stock futures open in the red
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were lower on Thursday, down 67 points, or 0.18%.
S&P 500 futures shed about 0.15%. Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.4%, led by declines from Intel after a disappointing first-quarter guidance.
— Pia Singh