A classic October gray sky and cool air has a firm hold on New England for the holiday with a persistent northeast and east wind. Those winds are feeding cool air south from Canada while simultaneously picking up ocean moisture along the way.
In order to bring new air into New England, the wind needs to shift – and it will as soon as Monday night. A developing south wind overnight won’t do much to break up the clouds at first, and in fact, could result in some new areas of drizzle developing.
That chance of drizzle will particularly be in the hilly terrain and in Northern New England. After a mostly cloudy start Tuesday, at least some breaks of sun should emerge.
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More importantly, the southerly wind will strengthen Tuesday, bumping temperatures into the 70s by afternoon in a new air that will establish in New England through Wednesday for most. That means mild times will continue through the midweek.
Cool air settling southward into the North Country later Wednesday sets up a clash of air between warm and cool by Thursday, which will likely ensure rain. However, moisture from Tropical Storm Michael adds an additional twist with the potential for heavier rain and perhaps (but not likely) some wind.
Rain should exit Friday early morning and give way to drier conditions for at least the start if not entirety of the upcoming weekend, with fall air for the end of the exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.