Massachusetts Secretary of State William Galvin is forecasting that about 850,000 ballots will be cast in this year's Democratic primary contests and more than 300,000 votes will be registered in the GOP contests.
Galvin offered his predictions Thursday morning, a day before the pre-primary early voting period is set to end. The state's top election official said voters not aligned with either major party are active this year, with unenrolled voters accounting for more than 50% of the mail-in ballots requested.
About 22% of the independents who have requested ballots have asked for Republican ballots, he said, a high level that he said could be a sign that unenrolled voters may want a say in the big race on the GOP ballot, the governor's primary between Geoff Diehl and Chris Doughty.
Galvin applauded the vote-by-mail reform, saying that more than 374,000 of the roughly 700,000 ballots sought have already been returned, a number that changes by the hour. With the primary election on Tuesday, Galvin urged anyone using a vote-by-mail ballot to use a dropbox at this late hour in the election cycle in order to ensure that their ballot is received by the 8 p.m. Tuesday deadline.
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Forecasting turnout, Galvin said, is difficult since vote-by-mail and early voting reforms were not in place for the 2018 primaries. Local races in Brockton, Lawrence and Worcester could push turnout up, he said, but a dearth of races in Plymouth County is likely to tamp down turnout in that region. Numerous polls have shown large numbers of likely primary voters say they are undecided about the candidates, and Galvin suggested that some of those voters just might not vote at all.
New poll results show many likely Democratic primary voters haven't made up their minds in a series of competitive statewide races.
Lieutenant governor candidate Kim Driscoll, auditor candidate Chris Dempsey and Secretary of State William Galvin held leads in the newly released Democratic primary polling, while attorney general candidates Andrea Campbell and Shannon Liss-Riordan appeared locked in a dead heat for their party's nomination.
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The UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion poll of 800 likely Democratic primary voters showed Campbell's lead has shrunk from a March poll. Liss-Riordan trailed Campbell 32-30 in the latest poll, which was conducted before Quentin Palfrey dropped out of the race. Palfrey drew 11% support in the latest poll.
The poll, conducted between Aug. 16 and Aug. 25, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9%.
Salem Mayor Driscoll registered 33% support in the lieutenant governor race polling, followed by Sen. Eric Lesser at 23%, and Rep. Tami Gouveia at 13%.
Former Assistant Secretary of Transportation Chris Dempsey drew 37% support, compared to 23% for Sen. Diana DiZoglio, in the auditor primary polling.
Galvin led challenger Tanisha Sullivan by a 56-21 margin in the UMass Lowell poll.
Nearly one-quarter of likely voters in the Democratic primary, which ends with in-person voting on primary election day on Sept. 6, remain undecided across multiple races.
"We have some indication of who is leading and who is behind, but if there's anything I've learned in my time polling Massachusetts primaries, it's to expect the unexpected," John Cluverius, director of survey research for the Center for Public Opinion, said. The poll did not address the Republican primaries for governor and lieutenant governor, the only two contested statewide races on the GOP primary ballot.
