Emergence of Robert Williams Presents Challenges for Celtics

Forsberg: Time Lord's emergence actually presents challenges for the Celtics originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

As Robert Williams blossoms into an impact NBA talent, the Boston Celtics find themselves with an interesting dilemma in the 10-day crawl to the 2021 NBA trade deadline.

Boston now has three centers -- Williams, Daniel Theis, and Tristan Thompson -- who can make a case for starter minutes. Each player, most assuredly, has their own deficiencies. But the bottom line is that, as Boston leans heavier on single-big lineups, there may be only 48 total minutes to split with that trio.

After Williams produced one of his best games as a pro, putting up 16 points and 13 rebounds in just 19 minutes against the (tanking) Rockets, Stevens acknowledged the team’s desire to ramp up his role and the squeeze that could put on the other bigs.

"I just think we can make it so that [Williams] can play more, more and more as the season goes on,” said Stevens. "Again, the density of the games and his [injury] history, especially last year, we’re just being conservative. But he’s getting a lot better. You can see that. And he’s able to play a little bit longer stints than he has in the past, because he plays really hard when he’s out there. 

"So that’s all encouraging. I thought both [Williams and Thompson] did a good job. I talked to Theis at halftime -- we’re going to be in a situation more now where one of those guys isn’t playing as much as we're smaller. It won’t be the same guys every night because it’ll be matchup dependent, and kind of who’s going. But all three are good players. 

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"Rob, obviously, gives us an upside there that I think we just need to keep building and building and building."

Over the past 13 games, Williams is averaging 8.6 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks over 18.1 minutes per game. He’s shooting 72.1 percent from the floor in that span.

The Celtics’ performance with Williams on the floor over that 13 game stretch hasn't been great -- he has a minus-8.6 net rating over 236 minutes -- but most of Boston’s bench players have eyesore numbers for that same stretch.

Williams’ ability to change a game with his energy is undeniable. Now it’s one thing to do it against what was essentially the Rio Grande Valley Vipers and the next step is for Williams to be able to be as impactful against top competition.

The cries for Williams to elevate to a starting role have already started. This writer, rarely bashful in his pleas for heavier doses of Time Lord, isn’t quite ready to hand him the first-unit keys, especially if the team is trying to manage his workload given his injury history. But it’s also undeniable that he’s having a positive impact when paired with the core of his team.

To try to gauge which big man is performing best alongside Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, we checked out the splits when the Jays are paired with each big man this season. Here’s what you find: 

WHICH BIG HELPS THE JAYS MOST?

Center	Mins w/Jays	Net Rtg	Jays w/o That Big	Net Rtg	Difference
Tristan Thompson	416	3.3	297	9.8	-6.5
Daniel Theis	474	5.4	239	6.8	-1.4
Robert Williams	94	9.6	619	5.4	4.2

Williams’ 94 minutes alongside the Jays is admittedly a super small sample. That said, roughly a third of those minutes have come in the fourth quarter, including some small doses of the "Crunch" Time Lord, and the trio has a net rating of plus-10.5 over 31 fourth-quarter minutes.

The defense in that small sample has been fantastic. In fact, it’s jarring to see that the Jays plus Williams trio has held opponents to a  mere 92.9 points per 100 possessions this season.

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Swap in Tristan Thompson and Boston’s defensive rating is 112.3 in 416 minutes with the Jays this season. The numbers with both Thompson and Theis are slightly skewed because of some rough patches with a clunky two-big lineup early in the year sans Kemba Walker (in fact, the Jays plus Theis and Thompson have a defensive rating of 116.7 in 262 minutes this year).

So the lingering question is what happens from here. A few possibilities:

Keeping the Big Three but someone gets squeezed each night

If the Celtics are concerned about Williams holding up physically, they can ride out the season with all three bigs on the roster. As Stevens hinted, one of them is almost certainly going to get squeezed each game. In two of the past three games, it has been Theis who has sat. He played only 7:12 in a win over Toronto before the All-Star break, then only 6:29 against Houston.

Theis provides much-needed floor spacing and a quality 3-point shot, which makes it likely that he won’t always be the odd-big out.

Celtics trade a big at the deadline

There’s a case to be made for trading each of Boston’s three bigs:

Theis, who will turn 29 next month, is a free agent after the season and, with numerous teams set to have cap space, he could find a payday north of what the Celtics can afford to spend. If Boston is not convinced it can retain Theis, the team has to consider recouping value. His chemistry with Boston’s core, and Walker in particular, make it more likely the team waits until the summer and addresses his future then (sign-and-trade options would still be available).

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Thompson, who just turned 30, is making $9.3 million this year and $9.7 next season. While he hasn’t had quite the impact that Boston might have envisioned when they utilized the mid-level exception to sign him, he’s had encouraging moments. The Celtics believe his championship experience can aid this young team in the postseason. His salary, though, could help the Celtics make deals that might allow them to preserve the full value of the Gordon Hayward traded player exception into the summer.

Williams might be Boston’s most valuable young asset with his recent emergence. While the jury is still very much out on the likes of Aaron Nesmith and Romeo Langford, Williams has shown he might only be scratching the surface of his high-flying potential. The Celtics don’t have a lot of glitzy draft picks any more, but Williams is the sort of player that can at least get them into the conversation for more established stars.

Adding depth option to fill a departure in the buyout market

The Celtics have (somewhat improbably) been linked this week to LaMarcus Aldridge. Clearly, Boston is not using its traded player exception but reports insist that he’d be a top target if he landed on the buyout market.

The Spurs are hoping to move Aldridge in part because his defense has become a liability. Four months shy of his 36th birthday, Aldridge moves painfully slow on the defensive end and cannot protect the rim like he once did. His offensive talents are still there but he’s certainly not going to aid the process of slowing Joel Embiid or Giannis Antetokounmpo on a playoff stage. And guards’ eyes light up when they see him plodding in their direction. There simply might be better depth options than Aldridge, particularly if he yearns for a hefty role wherever he lands next.