celtics

Forsberg: Fixing Celtics Starts With Robert Williams' Return, Jayson Tatum Busting Slump

Forsberg: Five keys to fixing what ails these Celtics originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

The conversation around the Boston Celtics has been largely doom and gloom since Saturday’s maddening loss in Utah. But rather than rehashing all that’s gone wrong, it feels more fruitful to ponder what needs to change for Boston to get back to something closer to the title favorite they were for much of the season.

A bit of good news arrived on Monday night. Robert Williams III, sidelined since March 3 with a hamstring strain, is off the injury report ahead of Tuesday’s road-trip-closing visit to Sacramento.

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The Celtics are 4-5 without Williams III, if you include the blown lead against the Nets after he limped off. A healthy Time Lord is just one of a small handful of changes that could go a long way toward fixing what ails these Celtics.

So that’s where we start our list of potential Celtics remedies: 

1. Time Lord's Return

Rebounding has been one of Boston's biggest sore spots lately. The Celtics have routinely been bitten by second-chance points, which have aided opponent rallies and broken the team's defensive spirit.

Boston’s rebound rate spikes to a team-best 54.3 when Williams III is on the court, a 3.7 percent increase over the team’s season average. More importantly, Boston grabs 78.1 percent of all defensive rebounds with Williams III on the floor, a 3.4 percent uptick over the season mark.

That may not sound like a huge jump, and Boston already leads the NBA in defensive rebound percentage at 74.7. But, post-All-Star, that number is down to 72.1 percent and ranks 16th overall. Boston’s post-All-Star rebound rate is 49.4 percent, which ranks 20th in the league.

More importantly, just having the threat of Williams III defending the rim will alter how willing opposing players are to attack the basket. There hasn’t been much fear — or resistance — from Boston’s perimeter defenders lately but Boston’s defensive rating is 106.8 with Williams III on the court this season, the best among any Boston player that has logged at least 600 minutes.

It could also help if last year’s preferred starting 5 gets a little bit more run together. That group had a minus-20.1 net rating in 52 minutes together in four post-All-Star appearances before Williams III got hurt. The core of this team needs to tap into last year’s mojo for Boston to be a legitimate title threat.

2. Jayson Tatum snaps his slump

It’s somewhat unique to suggest a player averaging 26.9 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 5.6 assists over the last 12 games is “slumping,” but that’s the bloated expectations that Tatum now shoulders after looking like an MVP candidate for much of the season.

Since the break, Tatum is shooting 42.3 percent from the floor (down 4.1 percent pre-All-Star) and a ghastly 29.2 percent from beyond the 3-point arc (down 6.5 percent from an already meager 35.7 percent pre-All-Star). This is the time of year when Tatum typically finds his stroke and goes supernova straight into the postseason. Getting him going again would go a long way toward masking a lot of the little issues that have been spotlighted in narrow losses.

What’s most wild about Tatum’s slump is that the Celtics have been outscored by 16 points during his post-All-Star floor time. Boston was +399 with Tatum on the court before the break.

It’s encouraging that Boston has found a way to more often keep its head above water when Tatum is on the bench but if Tatum can find his shooting touch, all while maintaining this level of rebounding and playmaking, it will make Boston that much more dangerous moving forward.

3. Settling on rotations, closing lineup

Some bit of experimentation could be justified after acquiring Mike Muscala at the trade deadline. But the Celtics really need to lock in their rotation, particularly when it comes to the most common closing players.

Now, some of that can certainly be a feel thing. Maybe there’s games that the Celtics need more size and that dictates how coach Joe Mazzulla puts together closing lineups. But our hope remains that a heavier priority is put on finding crunch-time minutes for Derrick White, who has been an improbably forgotten man and a victim of Boston’s point guard depth in those situations.

White has played only 34.2 percent of Boston’s total crunch-time minutes this season (55.4 out of 162). He logged a fourth-quarter DNP in Utah as the Celtics leaned heavy on Grant Williams and size to the finish line.

Back-to-backs and injuries could complicate lineups over the final 10, but it would likely help this team to lock in a bit closer to what we’ll see in the postseason.

Is Mazzulla going back to the double-big starting lineup once Williams III is healthy? Will Grant Williams get more consistent minutes after his play in Utah? Will Sam Hauser or Blake Griffin see minutes as a 9th or 10th man, or are all the Bus 1 Boys more likely to be emergency options in the postseason?

4. More Jaylen Brown in late-game spots?

Jaylen Brown has been Boston’s most efficient and consistent scoring option since the All-Star break. Even before this run, he had earned the right to be a bigger part of Boston’s late-game offense — especially if he prioritizes ball security in those situations.

Boston is a far more dangerous team if opponents have to scheme for either Tatum or Brown as a final-play options. Brown needs his number called more often in late-game situations — or even just an uptick through crunch time — based on his play. 

5. Marcus Smart & Al Horford take their defense to playoff level

Smart has battled bumps and bruises since the Finals last year and admitted recently his defense hasn’t been on the same level of last year’s DPOY campaign. The 36-year-old Horford has shown in spurts he can ratchet up his overall play but teams have been a bit fearless challenging him this season.

We’ll keep shouting it: The Celtics need to get back closer to the defense-first identity that propelled last year’s team to the Finals. The overall numbers for this team have been solid (fourth in defensive rating at 111.2 for the season) but post-All-Star Boston has slid to 15th in that metric (113.9). 

Can Boston reestablish that identity or will it simply be a “live by the 3, die by the 3” team? Getting Williams III back certainly helps but everyone — and we’d add Brown and Tatum here, too — need to up their defensive focus to get Boston closer to the playoff juggernaut we watched last season.

Rebounding, and defending without fouling, will go a long way towards winning the margins that Mazzulla loves to harp on. Taking care of the ball should be a priority along the way, too.

But so much of Boston’s ability to get back on track hinges heavy on a healthy Williams III and Tatum busting out of his slump.

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