For a quiet weather day of sunshine coming off a cold start, there sure is a lot of weather to cover!
Monday’s start in the 20s for many has been followed by sunshine, helping to bump temperatures into the 50s by the afternoon. Some wispy clouds will be mixing in for most of us ahead of a parade of energetic but moisture-starved disturbances that marching west to east across the Northern Tier of the United States.
The fast-moving jet stream winds aloft – steering our storm systems and separating cold to the north from warm to the south – are steering one disturbance into the North Country late Monday. It will deliver some light rain showers, and will carry another disturbance all the way from Montana Monday to Massachusetts Tuesday.
This is inducing a southerly wind flow ahead of it that will deliver scattered Tuesday morning showers to Southeast New England and increasing showers to more of us later Tuesday. This fast-moving disturbance will be gone by Wednesday, affording a return to sunshine and cool but not atypical autumn air.
A stronger cold front will charge southeast on Thursday, arriving from Canada Thursday evening and night after temperatures reach the 50s Thursday afternoon – the last time that happens for a while.
The problem Thursday night into early Friday morning is the cold air very well may arrive before the moisture associated with the cold front moves out. If this happens, there’s the potential we end rain showers and snowflakes for most of New England (it’s most certain to happen in Northern New England).
If a small storm center should develop along the cold front, enveloped in this lingering moisture, more significant snow becomes a real possibility. At this point, it’s too early to nail down exactly who sees what, but the setup is certainly favorable enough that we keep close watch.
There’s about a 60% chance most of New England sees at least some snowflakes by Friday morning. Regardless, cold air will be in place through the weekend, with most communities unable to break from the 30s Friday and Saturday.
It will only in the 40s Sunday and Veterans Day, when a chance of rain showers and perhaps some snowflakes mixed in north returns to New England in our exclusive First Alert 10-Day Forecast.