Although the disturbance responsible for Memorial Day tornadoes near Dayton, Ohio dove southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, a related piece of atmospheric energy is moving due east into New England.
The result has been increased clouds, followed by sprinkles that develops into rain as Tuesday wears on. Some thunder is expected in parts of Connecticut, Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts Tuesday evening. Although severe thunderstorms are most likely in New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey Tuesday evening, a few of these storms may keep enough strength into southwest Connecticut to produce localized damage briefly Tuesday evening.
Rain departs Tuesday night, but a patchy drizzle and coastal fog will linger into Wednesday morning. After the patchy drizzle, most of Wednesday should be dry albeit mostly cloudy and, as a result, cool.
In an active weather pattern with the jet stream winds –- the fast river of air aloft that steers disturbances –- flowing near to New England, each disturbance that moves overhead will raise the chance of showers. One disturbance brings some showers and thunder Wednesday night, and another brings the same Thursday night. We’ll watch both for the potential of embedded strong thunderstorms.
Drier air takes hold Friday and Saturday, ensuring sunshine and a great start to the weekend with highs in the 70s ahead of our next disturbance. That's slated to bring showers and thunder Sunday, though the timing is still to-be-determined. This will be important in understanding just how much of an impact on outdoor plans the showers will have.
Next week, our spring stretch will continue with temperatures near or perhaps slightly above normal.