Ranking Top 32 NFL Quarterbacks Ahead of 2022 Season

Ranking top 32 NFL quarterbacks ahead of 2022 season originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

Quarterback purgatory is a scary place to be.

It's why after two decades of Tom Brady, the New England Patriots and their fans have been so concerned about identifying the next guy and hoping that it is, in fact, Mac Jones. You really don't want to be, say, the Cleveland Browns, who've shuffled through 32 starting quarterbacks since reentering the NFL in 1999, or the Chicago Bears, who've had 26 in the same timespan.

You also don't want to hitch your wagon to mediocrity for a prolonged period of time, like, say, the Cincinnati Bengals did with Andy Dalton for nine years, or how the Miami Dolphins stuck with Ryan Tannehill for seven, or how the Bears themselves rode with Jay Cutler for eight. 

Yet even the best quarterbacks don't always win -- or win as much as they should -- and plenty of mediocre quarterbacks have come close to, or even won, a Super Bowl.

It's why ranking the top 32 quarterbacks in the 32-team NFL at any given moment can be such a challenge. When Nick Foles won Super Bowl LII for the Philadelphia Eagles or Joe Flacco won Super Bowl XLVII for the Baltimore Ravens, did that mean you'd rather have those guys heading into the next season than Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, etc.? Of course not. But you can't totally discredit a performance like that, either.

For the purposes of this exercise, we tried to take into account a quarterback's most recent season while also taking a step back and looking at their full body of work, as well as trying to project their future.

So while he certainly doesn't sound like a guy who's fully retired, Brady doesn't formally crack the top 32. Rest assured, if he does return, he'd be within the top two, after leading the league in both passing yards and passing touchdowns and nearly completing a 27-3 comeback at the ripe age of 44.

Should Brady return, it probably won't be with the Bucs, though.

The recently retired Ben Roethlisberger -- who definitely doesn't seem like he'll be mounting any sort of comeback -- also won't be considered for the top 32, nor will any college quarterbacks.

Before we get to the top 32, here's a few honorable mentions who didn't quite crack the list. These are guys you'd be more than happy to have as your backup, but nothing beyond that at this juncture: Sam Darnold, Mason Rudolph, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew, Nick Foles.

32. Cam Newton

2021 stats: 54.8 completion percentage, 684 yards, 4 TD, 5 INT, 64.4 passer rating; 5 rushing TD

2021 record: 0-5

Since the start of the 2019 season, Newton is 7-15 as a starter over 25 appearances for the Patriots and Panthers, completing 61.9 percent of his passes with 12 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. He has rushed for 17 scores, which gives him the edge over any other fringe starters at this point, but it’s certainly fair to wonder if Brady isn’t the only former New England signal-caller who’s taken his last snap in the NFL – or maybe to even wonder if it’s more likely Brady himself returns next season than Newton.

31. Daniel Jones

2021 stats: 64.3 completion percentage, 2,428 yards, 10 TD, 7 INT, 84.8 passer rating

2021 record: 4-7

The Giants reached for Jones when they selected him sixth overall in the 2019 NFL Draft and he’s done nothing to justify the selection, going 12-25 as a starter with a 45 to 29 touchdown to interception ratio. New York could’ve gotten similar, if not better, production from Gardner Minshew, the 178th overall pick in 2019 (41 touchdowns, 12 interceptions). The only saving grace for Giants fans: Danny Dimes really hasn’t been that much different than Eli Manning over his first three seasons (2004-06), who had a much better supporting cast. Eli went 20-19, completed 54.1 percent of his passes with 54 touchdowns and 44 interceptions.

30. Carson Wentz

2021 stats: 62.4 completion percentage, 3,563 yards, 27 TD, 7 INT, 94.6 passer rating

2021 record: 9-8

The body of work as a whole in 2021 was actually pretty good for the former North Dakota State star, but two games told you all you needed to know about Wentz. Even in beating the Patriots, he completed only 5 of 12 passes for 57 yards with a touchdown and an interception; three weeks later, with the Colts needing a win over the Jaguars to qualify for the postseason, Wentz was 17 of 29 for 185 yards, a touchdown and a pick. It sounds like Indy has seen enough of Wentz after one season.

29. Taylor Heinicke

2021 stats: 65 completion percentage, 3,419 yards, 20 TD, 15 INT, 85.9 passer rating

2021 record: 7-8

After Ryan Fitzpatrick went down in Week 1, Heinicke was beyond serviceable for the artists formerly known as Washington Football Team in his first year as a starter at age 28. The Commanders will still be looking to upgrade from Heinicke, especially after a few of his clunkers down the stretch – he completed 7 of 22 passes in that epic 56-14 loss to the Cowboys a day after Christmas.

28. Jared Goff

2021 stats: 67.2 completion percentage, 3,245 yards, 19 TD, 8 INT, 91.5 passer rating

2021 record: 3-10-1

Poor Goff. He actually had the best completion percentage of his career this season for the toothless Lions, and finally won a game without Sean McVay as his head coach. Unfortunately, he’s still 3-17-1 without McVay, who became a Super Bowl champion after discarding the top pick in the 2016 NFL Draft.

27. Teddy Bridgewater

2021 stats: 66.9 completion percentage, 3,052 yards, 18 TD, 7 INT, 94.9 passer rating

2021 record: 7-7

Bridgewater’s play over the last two seasons for undermanned Panthers and Broncos teams is admirable, and he still doesn’t turn 30 until later in 2022, but it unfortunately looks like he’ll never quite reach his potential following a horrific knee injury that essentially wiped out his entire 2016 and 2017 seasons after making the Pro Bowl a year earlier in just his second season.

26. Zach Wilson

2021 stats: 55.6 completion percentage, 2,334 yards, 9 TD, 11 INT, 69.7 passer rating

2021 record: 3-10

Compare Wilson’s rookie season, complete with a league-worst passer rating, with that of Sam Darnold’s rookie season with the Jets in 2018: 57.7% completions, 2,865 yards, 17 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 77.6 passer rating, 4-9 record.

25. Justin Fields

2021 stats: 58.9 completion percentage, 1,870 yards, 7 TD, 10 INT, 73.2 passer rating

2021 record: 2-8

The Bears didn’t do Fields any favors in juggling him around with Andy Dalton and Nick Foles in 2021, but there’s little question the starting job is his to lose heading into his second season. Can he be Chicago’s first legitimate, honest-to-goodness franchise quarterback since…Sid Luckman? (No, Jay Cutler does not count).

24. Davis Mills

2021 stats: 66.8 completion percentage, 2,664 yards, 16 TD, 10 INT, 88.8 passer rating

2021 record: 2-9

The sixth quarterback drafted in 2021, Mills was indisputably better than at least three drafted in front of him, including Wilson and Fields, as well as Trevor Lawrence. Despite his record, his work with a wretched Texans team can’t be overstated. How high is the ceiling for Mills, though? Will Houston be in any better a position to surround him with talent in 2022?

23. Trevor Lawrence

2021 stats: 59.6 completion percentage, 3,641 yards, 12 TD, 17 INT, 71.9 passer rating

2021 record: 3-14

Lawrence is too good to fail, right? With a coach now who once beat Bill Belichick in a Super Bowl in Doug Pederson, Lawrence at least feels salvageable. He closed his rookie season with – by far – his best performance, completing 23 of 32 passes for 223 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions and a career-best 111.8 passer rating in a 26-11 win over the Colts.

22. Trey Lance

2021 stats: 57.7 completion percentage, 603 yards, 5 TD, 2 INT, 97.3 passer rating

2021 record: 1-1

It’s really hard to know what to make of Lance, who’s started just three games since the end of the 2019 season: One in 2020 at North Dakota State and two for the 49ers, who drafted him third overall. On a loaded Niners roster, Lance looked competent in (very) limited duty. Is he now the guy headed into 2022, or will a former Patriots quarterback pause that? (And no, we don’t mean Jimmy G.)

21. Tua Tagovailoa

2021 stats: 67.8 completion percentage, 2,653 yards, 16 TD, 10 INT, 90.1 passer rating

2021 record: 7-5

Ever so slightly, Tua flashed some signs of improvement from Year 1 to Year 2 for the Dolphins. His completion percentage (64.1) and passer rating (87.1) both rose at least three points from his rookie year, while he threw a touchdown on 4.1 percent of his throws, up from 3.8. His interception rate also rose, from 1.7 to 2.6 percent. Should it matter he’s 3-0 against the Patriots? To an extent, although that may not carry quite as much weight as it once did – clearly, Brian Flores being 4-2 against them didn’t.

20. Jameis Winston

2021 stats: 59 completion percentage, 1,170 yards, 14 TD, 3 INT, 102.8 passer rating

2021 record: 5-2

A Buccaneers quarterback has led the NFL in passing yards in two of the last three seasons. Before Tom Brady did it in ’21, Winston did it in ’19, albeit while throwing 30 interceptions. Prior to shredding his knee, Winston was showing sure signs of improvement under Sean Payton for the Saints. Was it enough of a sample size for Winston to get another crack at a starting job, be it by the Bayou or elsewhere? The thinking here is yes.

19. Baker Mayfield

2021 stats: 60.5 completion percentage, 3,010 yards, 17 TD, 13 INT, 83.1 passer rating

2021 record: 6-8

In another era, Mayfield’s numbers through four seasons would be reason to celebrate if you’re the Browns – a team that hasn’t exactly had much to celebrate when it comes to quarterbacks over the last half-century. But with just one season of single-digit interceptions (8, in 2020) and a career-worst QBR in 2021 (35.1), Mayfield is beginning to feel as though he’s merely the best passer Cleveland has had since reentering the NFL in 1999 rather than a bonafide superstar. He does make a mean commercial, though.

18. Ryan Tannehill

2021 stats: 67.2 completion percentage, 3,734 yards, 21 TD, 14 INT, 89.6 passer rating

2021 record: 12-5

The former Dolphins quarterback is 30-13 with the Titans in the regular season, although the shine started to wear off a bit this year when he threw 14 picks – more than his last two seasons (13) combined. Tannehill also hasn’t won a playoff game in either of the last two seasons, losing at home in the divisional round in 2021 despite earning the lone bye in the AFC. He threw three picks against the eventual AFC champion Bengals, too.

17. Kirk Cousins

2021 stats: 66.3 completion percentage, 4,221 yards, 33 TD, 7 INT, 103.1 passer rating

2021 record: 8-8

Individually, Cousins was once again excellent in 2021 for the Vikings, earning his second Pro Bowl nod in the last three seasons with a 1.2 percent interception rate, the lowest mark of his career. Would you believe it that Cousins is seventh all-time in passer rating in the NFL, at 98.6, one spot ahead of a certain Tom Brady (97.6)? But something is missing with Cousins, who after another .500 season is 59-59-2. No quarterback comes with more empty calories than Cousins.

16. Jalen Hurts

2021 stats: 61.3 completion percentage, 3,144 yards, 16 TD, 9 INT, 87.2 passer rating; 784 rush yards, 10 TD

2021 record: 8-7

Quietly, Hurts had one of the best dual-threat seasons ever for a quarterback, becoming just the third player ever to pass for at least 3,000 yards, rush for 700 yards and score 10 touchdowns on the ground in a single season after Kyler Murray in 2020 and Cam Newton in 2011. He’s worth continuing to build around for the Eagles.

15. Mac Jones

2021 stats: 67.6 completion percentage, 3,801 yards, 22 TD, 13 INT, 92.5 passer rating

2021 record: 10-7

The play of Jones in 2021 may not have completely justified the way the Patriots handled the departure of Tom Brady, but the sting is decidedly eased with the way Jones looked over the bulk of the season – especially compared with the four quarterbacks drafted in front of him. What does he do for an encore? If Jones isn’t making a serious push into the top 10 rankings of this list next offseason, something will likely have gone wrong in his development.

14. Jimmy Garoppolo

2021 stats: 68.3 completion percentage, 3,810 yards, 20 TD, 12 INT, 98.7 passer rating

2021 record: 9-6

Hard to believe that Jimmy G is already 30, yet it sort of feels like there might still be another level he could unlock. Garoppolo is 33-14 as a starting quarterback (including two starts with the Patriots) in his career. San Francisco is 7-18 without him since the start of the 2018 season. He led the league in yards per completion in 2021 with 12.7, undoubtedly aided by an impressive supporting cast, but what more does he need to do to prove he’s a player worth building around? It won’t be with the 49ers – or the Patriots – but whichever team winds up with Jimmy G this offseason is going to be glad it did.

13. Matt Ryan

2021 stats: 67 completion percentage, 3,968 yards, 20 TD, 12 INT, 90.4 passer rating

2021 record: 7-10

Even with the extra game in 2021 – and Ryan played in all 17 – his 3,968 yards through the air were his fewest since 2010, his third season (3,705). Still, he led the league in completions in both 2019 and 2020, and given he’s missed only three starts in 14 seasons for the Falcons, there’s a steadying presence when it comes to Ryan. Your favorite team could certainly do worse.

12. Derek Carr

2021 stats: 68.4 completion percentage, 4,804 yards, 23 TD, 14 INT, 94 passer rating

2021 record: 10-7

Carr is one of the most difficult quarterbacks in the league to assess. Was the chance to work with him enough for Josh McDaniels to finally fly the Foxboro coop for a second time, or does he have a grand vision in Vegas which may not include Carr? His interception rate (2.2 percent) in 2021 was the third-highest of his career and his 3.7 touchdown rate was the third-lowest. Carr has made three Pro Bowls, but none since 2017. He’ll be 31 in March. Carr serves as the line of demarcation between those who are good and those who are great.

11. Deshaun Watson

2021 stats: Did not play

2021 record: N/A

Currently mired in 22 pending lawsuits, Watson is next to impossible to correctly slot given the uncertainty of his status. He didn’t take a snap for the Texans in 2021 and it’s fair to wonder whether it’s a matter of if, rather than when, his career resumes. If it does? Watson made the Pro Bowl three straight seasons from 2018-20 for Houston, leading the league in passing yards (4,823) and yards per attempt (8.9) with an excellent 70.2 completion percentage in his most recent campaign.

10. Lamar Jackson

2021 stats: 64.4 completion percentage, 2,882 yards, 16 TD, 13 INT, 87 passer rating

2021 record: 7-5

The further away we get from Jackson’s superhuman MVP campaign in 2019, the less it becomes a given that Jackson belongs among the upper tier of quarterbacks in the NFL. He had 36 touchdowns against six interceptions two years ago – including an absurd 9 percent touchdown pass rate – which wasn’t sustainable, but the pace which those numbers are trending in the other direction is a tad bit concerning. A season back at full health in 2022 could go a long way for Jackson to reestablish his place in the upper echelon of quarterbacks.

9. Kyler Murray

2021 stats: 69.2 completion percentage, 3,787 yards, 24 TD, 10 INT, 100.6 passer rating

2021 record: 9-5

No quarterback has ever won AP Offensive Rookie of the Year and followed it up with back-to-back Pro Bowl berths like Murray has, whose year-to-year improvement in almost every significant offensive category is tangible. He did go 1-5 down the stretch for the Cardinals in 2021, a lopsided loss to the eventual Super Bowl champion Rams in the wild-card round included, and seems to be at odds with management in Arizona. Must be nice to have another professional sport lined up as leverage.

8. Dak Prescott

2021 stats: 68.8 completion percentage, 4,449 yards, 37 TD, 10 INT, 104.2 passer rating

2021 record: 11-5

Dak's sixth pro season was by far his best, with career-high marks in touchdowns, completion percentage and passer rating, finishing in the top five in the league in all three categories. All we're waiting to see from Prescott is if he can get the Cowboys beyond the divisional round -- he's 1-3 in the postseason, including a loss to the 49ers in the wild-card round this year. Somehow, Dallas remarkably hasn't been to the conference championship since it won Super Bowl XXX after the 1995 season. Only the Lions and Commanders have longer active droughts in the NFC.

7. Russell Wilson

2021 stats: 64.8 completion percentage, 3,113 yards, 25 TD, 6 INT, 103.1 passer rating

2021 record: 6-8

No quarterback -- not Tom Brady, not Peyton Manning, not anyone -- has gone to the Pro Bowl in nine of their first 10 seasons like Wilson has for the Seahawks. But 2021 marked a season of firsts for Wilson, including his first missed games due to injury and first season with a losing record.

6. Matthew Stafford

2021 stats: 67.2 completion percentage, 4,886 yards, 41 TD, 17 INT, 102.9 passer rating

2021 record: 12-5

The age-old question of whether or not it was the Lions or Stafford that was the problem has been answered, though he did tie for the league lead in interceptions with 17. No matter; including four postseason wins, Stafford won more games for the Rams this season (16) than he did in his last three years in Detroit (14) combined. Stafford matched his career highs in both completion percentage and touchdown passes in 2021 as well for the Super Bowl champs. Let the Hall of Fame debate ring.

5. Justin Herbert

2021 stats: 65.9 completion percentage, 5,014 yards, 38 TD, 15 INT, 97.7 passer rating

2021 record: 9-8

Herbert has checked off every single box over his first two years for the Chargers, except for the most important one: Getting to the playoffs. There's still plenty of time for that for Herbert, who already looks like the best quarterback the University of Oregon has ever produced. At 6-foot-6, he has every physical advantage imaginable.

4. Joe Burrow

2021 stats: 70.4 completion percentage, 4,611 yards, 34 TD, 14 INT, 108.3 passer rating

2021 record: 10-6

Two years after being selected first overall in the 2020 NFL Draft, Burrow led the league in both completion percentage and yards per attempt (9.0), finished second in passer rating and had the Cincinnati Bengals just one drive away from their first-ever Super Bowl title. Burrow was also sacked a league-leading 51 times, a cause for concern for his health moving forward, but if Cincinnati can address its glaring need along the offensive line, Burrow will remain among the top five quarterbacks in the league for quite some time.

3. Josh Allen

2021 stats: 63.3 completion percentage, 4,407 yards, 36 TD, 15 INT, 92.2 passer rating

2021 record: 11-6

That completion percentage is a little low for today's NFL -- 24th in the league this season -- and the passer rating was perfectly average, at 16th best, but for Allen, it's all about the improvements to his game. He's gone from a taller J.P. Losman or E.J. Manuel for the Bills, to a player where you can kinda, sorta see it, to a player who should terrify you in pretty much every situation. Allen is still mistake-prone, make no mistake about it, but has a skillset so unique that on days when everything is clicking, he's pretty much unstoppable. He led the NFL in yards per rush this season, at 6.3.

2. Aaron Rodgers

2021 stats: 68.9 completion percentage, 4,115 yards, 37 TD, 4 INT, 111.9 passer rating

2021 record: 13-3

For the second year in a row, Rodgers was named First Team All-Pro at quarterback after leading the league in passer rating, QBR (69.1), touchdown rate (7) and interception rate (0.8). His 37 to 4 touchdown-to-interception ratio (9.25) was the third-highest ever among quarterbacks who played 16 games, behind only...Rodgers himself, who had better ratios in both 2018 and 2020. He's had the lowest interception rate in the league four years running. So how is he not No. 1?

Rodgers is 7-9 in the postseason since winning Super Bowl XLV after the 2010 season, a triumph that remains his only trip to the title game. Just think of all the middling to meh quarterbacks who've been to a Super Bowl since then: Joe Flacco, Nick Foles, Jared Goff, Jimmy Garoppolo...Losing to the 49ers at home in the divisional round this year, producing just a single touchdown, was beyond inexcusable for Rodgers, who is still yet to commit to playing for the Packers or anyone in 2022. At 38 years old, how much longer will he realistically keep going for? He certainly has his own methods, TB12 or not. So long as Rodgers remains active, it's hard to see him suffering much of a slip in play -- if any -- a la Brady.

1. Patrick Mahomes

2021 stats: 66.3 completion percentage, 4,839 yards, 37 TD, 13 INT, 98.5 passer rating

2021 record: 12-5

Four straight Pro Bowls with four straight trips to (at least) the AFC Championship Game in his first four years as a starter has created ridiculous expectations for Mahomes, who set the bar so incredibly high with his play in 2018 (MVP, First Team All-Pro) and 2019 (Super Bowl MVP) that his last two seasons do feel like just a little bit of a letdown. He was certainly culpable for Kansas City blowing a 21-3 lead on Cincinnati in the AFC title game last month.

In this (for now) post-Tom Brady world we're living in, standards for any quarterback -- Mahomes, Rodgers, Burrow, you name it -- are going to be completely out of whack for a long, long time. If the biggest issue with Mahomes is that he's guilty of trying to do a little too much at times, that can be worked out. For 2022 and for the foreseeable future, there's no quarterback better equipped to navigate today's NFL than Mahomes.