We're watching the weather on a couple of fronts here in New England.
- The intensifying drought regionwide.
- Whether or not the holiday weekend stays dry.
- Hermine's ultimate plan for us into Labor Day...and beyond
Admittedly, they're all related. We need the rain from Hermine, but don't want her winds, waves and beach erosion...or the drama of an uncertain forecast.
But we can't cherry pick our weather, so we must stick with what we know - or get lost in the maybes and what ifs.
So here's what we know:
- The forecast from Sunday to Tuesday is still very unstable. Confidence is low, and there is a possibility we do NOT see showers as depicted in the extended forecast.
- The ultimate track of Hermine late into the holiday weekend may not be known until Saturday night or Sunday.
- I am more confident that Hermine (or her remnants) will not make landfall anywhere in New England.
- Whether or not Hermine ever comes close, the storm's reach is large. It's likely will see big surf, lots of beach erosion and gusty coastal winds.
- I can't promise a lot of rain. This is the most painful part of the forecast. We know that there won't be a lot across Northern New England (if any), but Southern New England remains a wild card. Best case scenarios put us in the 2-4" range. Worse case? A few showers that dry up as they move in from the ocean.
That cuts to the bone. One of the ways out of a drought is with a tropical system. And if we miss this opportunity, things could get dire.
We're on top of it from landfall tonight through the storm's last gasp at sea. More updates online and on air.