Fine Week of Weather, But What About July 4th?

Doug Quahog forecast 12 weeks and 1 day of summer sunshine at Cape Cod Quahog Day during the summer solstice on Tuesday June 21, 2011. The weather was perfect, sunny and warm. But Doug was oblivious to what was around the corner.

Yet another slow-moving cool pool aloft settled into New England the next day, and still has not left. That Wednesday rain was a really bad forecast. Doug totally blew it, couldn't even get one day right! Most professional meteorologists blew it, too. That rain is intense; 2.6" was the max, at Weare NH. We thought Thursday would be the heavy rain day. And it was: 4.15" in Milford NJ to 2.9" in Easton CT. Then Friday was darn chilly and damp. On Saturday morning we awoke to the fourth consecutive day of gray skies, with temperatures in the low 50s. Thunderstorms once again drenched New England, first a morning round (about 2" near Georgetown MA), and on into southern and eastern Maine. Then an evening round from New York to Boston, peaking at about 3" in Chicopee MA.

All this rain puts us way over the top for a much wetter than normal June, as many as 6" over for the month. And the chill since summer began has lowered our monthly average temperature enough that June 2011 will like go in the books colder than normal, a feat we have not been doing too much of lately. The monthly report from Blue Hill today, June 26, 2011, is 5.12" of rainfall (+1.84"), and 1.1 degrees per day colder than normal.
The big question is: What about the rest of the summer? Can we shake this cool and wet pattern?
Extreme heat from Arizona to Texas goes on. Amarillo Texas reached 111° today, breaking the all-time high temperature record of 109° set way back on June 24, 2011. Best I can tell, the old all-time high was 108° on June 24, 1990. North of the extreme heat, an active flow from the Pacific Ocean continues, but the chill in western Canada has been replaced by huge warm blocking ridge. So for the second weekend this year, we have no snow falling in the Rockies. But on the east side of the western Canada blocking ridge, there is cold feeding southward in central and eastern Canada. The battle zone tonight is centered in Nebraska, where a major severe weather outbreak is ongoing tonight. That front, the northern boundary of the extreme heat, stretches from Nebraska to North Carolina with heavy weather all the way to Georgia.

The boundary will make progress to New England by Tuesday, our next big weather day (night) here in the Northeast. But, for a change, the front will actually make it past New England without stalling for a few days.
So we get a pretty nice week, the best so far in 2011 (for warmth and sunshine). How long can this last? A new pool of cool is lurking in Ontario late this week, there are signs of a backdoor front by Saturday, July 2. Though it is still way out, there is a chance of another big cool pool, cut off low pressure here next Saturday though Monday. That could mean more cool damp weather for our July 4th.
Hope I am wrong. Nothing worse than showers and fog when deciding what to do about setting off and viewing fireworks.
From the world of surf and ski. Mount Washington BC (among others) is open for skiing July 4th. Surf has been up the last few days, but will fade for this week.

And we are are tracking a tropical wave form the Caribbean to northern Mexico this week. May bring some helpful rain to south Texas.

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