Ocean Storm Exits- Wintry Wind On The Way

                                                                                                We are spared the Damage of the October 1991 Halloween Hurricane, butit's a close miss. Even today, Sunday November 14, 2010, the 8 day oldGale center is still swirling northeast of Bermuda. Buoys thismorning report an 8 Foot Swell every 13 Seconds at Virginia Beach to 6Foot Swell every 11 Seconds right at the entrance to Boston Harbor. Weare still waiting for the swell to diminish and clean up. Most of thissurf has been to intense for all but the top notch surf and kiteboarders. Before the storm even ramped up last Monday, we had a prettynice swell last Saturday, Nov. 6 when this seasoned Stand Up PaddleSurfer made it our past the break, see the video at Mike Mark's site,MoreBeach.com.
  At our home near the shore in Scituate, the Northeast wind gustingpast 40 mph for 5 days blew up a Brine Grime so thick, we could not seethrough the windows. It was a little different on the south side ofRhode Island, where Chick and Charlie Frodigh 'killed it' (surf slangfor ride after ride) near Narragansett Bay with the offshore wind onVeteran's Day.
  The set up for this event was a front that stalled offshore ThursdayNovember 4. On Sunday night Nov. 7 low pressure bombed out east ofNantucket. The central pressure fell from 1011 millibars Sunday Morningto 984 millibars Monday morning. The storm center then passed fromProvincetown MA to Scituate (where I measured the 984 in a sunny'eye'), to New Bedford MA. Yes, the storm backed west/southwest. Abackdoor warm front pushed west from Maine to New Hampshire, where itwas raining on Mount Washington, and snowing from cape Cod to JerseyCity. I logged and photographed the whole thing, a more exciting eventI can not recall (that's why I am writing about it a week later).
  That very storm is the same one sitting north of Bermuda now, part ofa major atmospheric block. Another storm is stalled of Scotland, wheresurf has pounded the shore all week. Another storm is lifting out ofMinnesota where Maple Grove is buried in 12" of Heavy Wet snow, andthousand's are without electricity.
  This midwest storm is lifting into Canada, usually this means warmthfor New England. But.. a Backdoor cold front slid from Maine toConnecticut last night. So even though upper levels wind is from thesouthwest, we a have shallow, cool breeze from the northeast at thelowest 2000' of the atmosphere. The summit of Mount Washington startedthe day at 36 with west wind, while it was 19 and calm down the hillin Berlin NH. This weather pattern has shown proclivity to blocking andHigh Pressure over Southeastern Canada, and New England. These coldhighs are getting stronger and stronger. Have you heard about the longrange winter forecasts? The experts are named Joe. Joe D'Aleo ofIcecap.us, and Joe Bastardi of Accuweather.com. The Joe's use theanalog method to make their forecasts. The pattern to analog for thiswinter are increasing La Nina, Colder Pacific Decadal Oscillation, WarmAtlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, and an active hurricane season(among other factors). Both of the Joe's forecast is fro a severewinter from Western Canada to the Mid-West United States, with warmerand mush less snowy over the southeast United States. This puts NewEngland right along the axis of storms crossing from Illinois to Maine.That means plenty of precipitation. How much is snow, or ice, or rainis not predictable. But is we add my analog, we lean toward snow.
My analog is 1995, that summer was about as hot as this July was, alsoa year with many hurricanes. I like 95/96 because Boston measured107.3" making that the snowiest winter on record.
   This week's forecast is a great example for the long range winterforecast. By weeks end we will have had one to three waves of lowpressure, with rain to ice and snow in New England, and a shot of crosspolar Arctic Air flow building in Western Canada, to spread south andeast for Thanksgiving. The initial waves of low pressure for NewEngland are too warm for snow here Monday and Wednesday, but after thatour temperature is falling and snow guns come back on in the mountains.Whether we get a Thursday/Friday storm is tough to call. We definitelyhave a fron nearby, and there is potential for the most widespread snowso far by Friday Morning.
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