Preliminary Estimated Impacts of Tuesday Evening to Wednesday Evening, 111-1122011 Snowstorm

Here's the latest on the upcoming Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Evening storm.  Exact start time cannot reliably be determined beyond "Tuesday evening" but we'll work on it.

Storm Timeframe:  Tuesday evening start, Wednesday evening finish.

Intensity:  Greatest intensity to occur Tuesday night through Wednesday midday.  Multiple Wednesday delays/closings expected.

Expected Snowfall:  Based on latest guidance, which has been consistent  over last several days with storm potential, 90%+ chance of greater than  6" Central and Southern New England, 60-70% chance greater than 12" for  interior Southern New England.  Some mixing with sleet and rain will  occur - exact placement of that still uncertain, but likely within Route  495, mostly snow outside of 495.

Confidence:  High on occurrence.  Moderate to high on amounts.  Low to moderate on placement of rain/snow line.

Impacts:  Travel will be severely impacted Tuesday night through  Wednesday, with whiteout conditions Wednesday morning where the storm  stays all snow, and slushy conditions closer to the coast where a  changeover occurs, changing back to snow and icing up during the  afternoon.  Wind gusts may approach 50 mph at coasts, 30 mph inland, but  due to coastal change to rain, blizzard criteria potential appears low  at this time, though not impossible for the Worcester Hills early  Wednesday.  Coastal flood impacts are lessened thanks to a 4 AM high  tide (before maximum winds) and low astronomical tide, though splashover  or minor coastal flooding cannot be ruled out at the 4 AM and 4 PM  Wednesday high tides.  Beach erosion due to pounding surf, however, is  likely.

Check back for updates - live video Technical Discussion streams 6:40 PM Monday on my Weather Analysis Page.  Updates continue on my Twitter account.


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