Thanksgiving Week Forecast- “It’ll Be Interesting”

That's our favorite expression in the weather office.. "It will be interesting". Goes without saying when trying to make a forecast here in New England. Given the extremes, the stakes are a bit higher than normal. Temperatures in the lower 48 ranged from -13 in Havre MT (how do we pronounce Havre, like Favre?) to 93 in Laredo TX. We are tracking major storms coming out of the north and central Pacific crossing the United States. One storm from Washington to Minnesota left a swath of 1-2 feet of snow and thousands without electricity. That  storm passed north of New England drawing warmth into New England, Boston reached 66 today, Sunday November 20, 2011, 16 degrees warmer than normal.
The latest storm to arrive from the Pacific Soaked Los Angeles with 1"-2" of rain and 50 degree air. The ski areas of California and Nevada are measuring snow in feet. We have another outbreak of severe storms near Dallas tonight.
Here in New England a cold front is oozing southward, bringing a thermal shock to New England for our Monday, with highs 25 degrees lower for Monday, surprisingly with little wind or precipitation. Odds are high, but not certain, that we will be dry into late Tuesday. But our New England Weather for Wednesday all depends on what happens to the storm slamming California Tonight. Last week we had that storm missing to the south. In the last 48 hours the forecast track has shifted about 600 miles to the north. Here are the changes in track since just yesterday. The top image is from our Saturday Forecast, The Bottom is tonight's. The weather is like a pendulum, and so are weather forecasts, I would not be surprised if this forecast swings back south again. The real wild card is Thanksgiving Day. Odds are increasing that a Backlash snow may last into midday Thursday with snow in our Mountains (especially Maine) and we may even see snow along the coast in eastern Massachusetts.
Sat Outlook.JPG

Saturday Track

Sunday Track, shifted north..again.

SundayOutlook.JPG

Either way, our Travel Wednesday will be slow, Rain will be heavy South, and wintry mix is heavy north. We may even end up with significant icing in Northern Maine. Windy cold weather will be hear Thanksgiving day. The highest tides of the month are midnight Thanksgiving, wind should be offshore by then.
What about that Severe Alaska Cold? It may arrive in the lower 48 by early December. Keep an eye on the Temperature in Fairbanks, when Fairbanks warms to zero degrees, start the clock, see if we do not have serious cold returning to the lower 48 10-15 days later.
Here is a statement on that cold from The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Fairbanks.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1157 AM AKST SUN NOV 20 2011

...RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER THE INTERIOR...

THE FIRST COLD WEATHER OUTBREAK OF THE SEASON CONTINUES TO BRING
COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA. FEWER REPORTS OF
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN 40 BELOW ZERO WERE REPORTED IN THE
INTERIOR ON SUNDAY MORNING.

RADIO STATION KJNP IN NORTH POLE REPORTED 41 BELOW ZERO...BREAKING
THE RECORD SET IN 1993. OTHER COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE FAIRBANKS
AREA SUNDAY MORNING INCLUDE EIELSON AIR FORCE BASE AT 38 BELOW...
THE FAIRBANKS AIRPORT WITH 33 BELOW AND UAF WEST RIDGE AT 30 BELOW.

RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY
MORNING. THE RECORD LOW FOR NOVEMBER 21ST AT THE FAIRBANKS AIRPORT
IS 35 BELOW...33 BELOW AT EIELSON AIR FORCE BASE...38 BELOW AT KJNP
IN NORTH POLE...AND 35 BELOW AT UAF WEST RIDGE.

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEK.
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND BY
MONDAY EVENING FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR. THE CLOUDS AND SNOW WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES IN THE
VALLEYS TO RISE SOMEWHAT FROM RECENT LEVELS...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE HILLS AND OTHER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
INTERIOR...WHICH HAVE NOT BEEN AS COLD AS VALLEYS DURING THE PAST
WEEK...ARE EXPECTED TO TURN COLDER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN FAIRBANKS THIS WEEK IS AROUND 8 ABOVE
WITH AN AVERAGE LOW OF 9 BELOW ZERO.

THE FOLLOWING IS A SUMMARY OF OFFICIAL LOW TEMPERATURES AS OF 11
AM AKST SUNDAY UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA:
NORTH POLE (KJNP)......................41 BELOW (NEW RECORD)
EIELSON AIR FORCE BASE.................38 BELOW
FAIRBANKS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT........33 BELOW
UAF WEST RIDGE.........................30 BELOW

OUTSIDE THE FAIRBANKS AREA:
TOK....................................47 BELOW
NORTHWAY AIRPORT.......................46 BELOW
CHICKEN................................45 BELOW
FORT YUKON.............................44 BELOW
PORT ALCAN.............................44 BELOW
EAGLE..................................43 BELOW
MANLEY HOT SPRINGS.....................43 BELOW
CIRCLE HOT SPRINGS.....................41 BELOW
GALENA.................................39 BELOW
NIKOLAI................................38 BELOW
MCGRATH AIRPORT........................38 BELOW
TANANA AIRPORT.........................31 BELOW

$$


APW

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