Unusually Quiet October Starts Making Noise

The meteorologists from Blue Hill Observatory write up a daily weather discussion that sums up the situation. On Sunday October 27, 2013 BHO observer Forrest Iwanik sent this report..

Blue Hill has yet to have its first freeze (< = 32F) of the season.  The
long term average date (1886-2012) of the first freeze at Blue Hill is
October 20 (Julian day 293).  The 30-year average (1981-2010) date of the
first freeze is October 21 (Julian day 294).  The latest freeze was
November 14, 1938 (Julian day 319).  The earliest freeze was September 23,
1904 (Julian day 266).
Despite this morning's drizzle, October is now 2.93 inches drier
than average, with just over an inch (1.02) of total precipitation. For the
year we are now below average despite a surplus of 7.8 inches
falling in June alone. Seven of the ten months thus far in 2013 have had
precipitation deficits, four of which being more than an inch below normal.
We are now 0.05 inches short of the average for the year.

Thank you Forrest, though only .05" off the yearly average, much of that deficit is from the last several weeks.
This week we should see the first freeze at Blue Hill with a low temperature of 32 on Tuesday Oct 29. The we may have a few tenths of an inch of rain on Halloween night. So the trend this week is to reduce the warm and dry stats for the month.
Members of The Blue Hill Observatory get to see the exclusive weather.us Ten Day forecast for the observatory, here is the sample from Oct 27.


The above diagram has a boat load of information. The very top line is the temperature. I see it says the low Tuesday is 37, but I believe it's wrong, and we will hit 32. Then the wind and rain moves in on Halloween Thursday, into Friday. Wind may gist past 40 (so says the graph, but I am thinking more than 55 mph.) But I do believe the forecast high of 70 on Friday November 1st.

Our weather behaves like a pendulum, swing from warm to cold, from wet to dry, from calm to windy.. and so on. This week we swing from cold and dry to warm and wet.

The last few days it finally began to snow in Northern New England.
Here is the view of Killington from Saturday October 26th, when the lifts opened for the season.


 Last year we had skiing the second week of October, but then not again until early November.
 Sunday River also made just enough snow to open for this weekend. Here was the view on Thursday October 24 as snow snow guns were first turned on.


Snow guns may stay fired up Monday through Wednesday before a spell of warm weather shuts them down until about Sunday Night November 3rd.
The pumpkins at Stowe Mountain Resort will be drippy instead of icy by Friday.
This picture is from Saturday the 26th.


Stowe Mountain Resort, like most areas in the ski business are planning to open around Thanksgiving when the cold and snow becomes usually becomes much more reliable.

Will this be a good winter for winter sports in New England?
Hmm, great question.
The cold from coast to coast in Canada this week is very impressive. The amount of snow and ice around the north pole this fall is more extensive than any fall since 2004 and 2005. We had some serious cold and snow those winters, so my guess is we have a winter with normal cold, and plenty of snow.
In addition, the Atlantic Hurricane season was rather quiet, though we had 12 named storms, there were no major hurricanes. So we have plenty of potential energy (warm water) left in the ocean. The combination of available cold in the Arctic, and warmth in The Atlantic means the stakes are high for more 'super storms' like Irene and Sandy.
As a matter of fact we have one this weekend.
A storm with the power of a hurricane is now lashing The British Isles.


That is a 966 millibar (28.56") Low Pressure Center near Ireland. The central pressure of hurricane Irene in New York City was also 966 millibars.

There is also a powerful storm in the northeast Pacific.


So we are surrounded with big powerful storms, so the stage is set for a major ramp up in New England weather, beginning with The Halloween Storm. Expect many wind gusts past 55 mph, meaning tree damage and power outages Thursday and Friday, but no snow with this one.  Looks like 1-2" of rainfall.

Does anyone read blogs anymore?
If you have specific questions on this analysis or our New England winter forecast, or want to just let me know you read this.
Please tag me on twitter, or send an email tkelley@www.necn.com.
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