forecast

FIRST ALERT: Gusty Wind, Arctic Air Surges in Ahead of Strong Storm

Sunday night into Monday will brings snow, rain and coastal flooding to the region

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An ocean storm developing over the Gulf Stream Friday will push north-northeast into the Canadian Maritimes. New England will stay on the outskirts of its very sharp western edge of a precipitation shield, producing mostly raindrops. 

With a northerly wind blowing over ocean water temperatures in the middle 40s -- exceptionally mild for this time of the year -- Cape Cod started Friday near 50 degrees in spots. That ensures what falls from the sky Friday will be almost entirely in the form of raindrops. 

As the storm center makes its closest pass to New England Friday afternoon, rain showers should push as far northwest as southern Plymouth and Bristol Counties. Some sprinkles or flurries are possible along the remainder of the coast but with little impact for anyone. 

The weather will turn more impactful, however, Friday evening and night. A northerly wind will increase with gusts over 40 mph Friday evening, and briefly over 50 mph on Cape Cod. The wind will be strong enough for a few isolated power outages, but the widespread impact will be to drive the wind chill subzero as the northwesterly wind carries a new shot of arctic air across the Canadian border into New England.

On the leading edge to the arctic air, enough moisture may still linger on the roads of southeastern Massachusetts through Cape Cod to freeze for some areas of ice Friday evening. The rest of us will find the wind chill dropping from the 20s early Friday evening to around zero by midnight and subzero by Saturday morning.

Saturday will dawn with sunshine, but that sun will be ineffective in battling the cold air with dangerous wind chills. The chill will be capable of frostbite within 30 minutes of exposed skin early Saturday morning as far south as northern Massachusetts, recoiling to the mountains of the north by midday but leaving behind a stinging cold through the day. 

For as cold as it is, the air is dry, so sunshine is expected on both weekend days. Sunday’s wind will be far lighter and therefore a much less cold feeling day with highs in the 20s and little wind chill. 

A large and powerful storm composed of northern energy producing snow in the Midwest this weekend and Gulf of Mexico moisture producing thunderstorms there, will strengthen as it moves across the Tennessee River Valley and up the Eastern Seaboard. This will deliver accumulating snow to the southeast, an ice storm to parts of the Carolinas and snow to New England starting overnight Sunday night.

If the projected storm track holds, the storm will pull in enough ocean warmth to change snow to rain in much of southern and eastern New England. Meanwhile, the deep interior and northern New England will likely stay all snow or a snow/sleet combo with 6”-12” of accumulation. Communities in between will see at least a few inches of snow before a mix or changeover. 

As the wind increases Monday, waves will build offshore 15 to 25 feet, which will produce some powerful surf in concert with an onshore wind for likely coastal flooding during a late morning high tide Monday. 

Next week features fairly typical weather for January, with seasonable temperatures on most days and an increasing chance of snow during the late week into next weekend in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

Temperatures will drop before we see some snow hit the region overnight into Monday.
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