Although more showers, downpours and thunder will fall on a waterlogged New England region Monday, available energy in the atmosphere is less than in recent days. That means flash flooding and severe weather are both much less likely.
Our First Alert Team can’t say the threat for flash flooding is non-existent given the saturated ground, but conditions are less favorable for intense thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, select rivers in western New England have reached minor flood stage, overflowing their banks due to recent rain, while others in central New England have come near bank-full but have not overflowed.
The best weather Monday is found at the corners of New England: northern Maine, northwest Vermont and the South Coast, all of which will see the most sun and fewest showers. Early fog and lots of clouds dominates for the rest of us.
Showers will wane Monday night with clearing expected around and after midnight, save for some patchy fog. This should result in sunshine Tuesday!
With ample sun much of the day, high temperatures Tuesday will reach to between 85 and 90 degrees. Continued humid air produces a heat index value of 90 to 95 for some, particularly in southern New England.
Although the number of late day and evening storms may be limited, Tuesday’s heat and humidity will provide fuel for storms that do develop. That means some severe storms are possible during the late day and evening well ahead of a slow-moving cold front approaching from Canada.
That same slow-moving front crosses New England on Wednesday. It will fuel multiple showers and thunderstorms, which will be strongest during the afternoon, and raise the risk for at least some severe weather. Moreover, pockets of renewed flash flooding could appear if recent recipients of heaviest rainfall are hit again.
The good news comes behind Wednesday’s storms: less humid, comfortable air for a great Thursday. Friday may bring some showers with a disturbance aloft, but our forecast calls for comfortable air Saturday, which is likely to be the best day of the weekend.
The problem with our nicer weather at the end of the week into Saturday is it’s coming courtesy of cooler, drier Canadian air. The reason that poses a problem is because, this time of the year, warmth and humidity will never stop battling to regain control. That means we see a return of clouds, showers or rain each time the battle unfolds
Right now, the next battle of air resulting in showers appears to begin Saturday evening or night and continue through Sunday, with at least and elevated chance of showers and thunder continuing into early next week.