November Monthly Forecast: Colder Than Normal

[UGCDGO-CJ-weather]weather photo
Rhoni Billick

On Monday, the first weekday morning of the new month, I aired my monthly forecast as I usually do on my NECN morning weathercasts. In my estimation, a trough in the jet stream should carve out across the Eastern United States by this upcoming weekend, and define the prevailing weather pattern for the first two to three weeks of the month. Given the cold air bottling up in Canada, this should drive the Great Lakes and Northeast significantly below normal for the first half of the month, and given the depth of the cold, 1) I'm not sure the pattern will relent entirely, and 2) Temperatures will go enough below normal that a recovery to above normal for the month, overall, would be hard to achieve.

As for precipitation, such a pattern would not only allow some Pacific moisture to be brought into the Westerlies, but also would bring a propensity for coastal storm development, and is the reason I've placed much of the Northeast coast in above-normal precipitation. All of this, together, argues for a deepening of the snowpack in the Northern Mountains over the coming two weeks, and quite possibly, over the month as a whole.

Below, you'll find my temperature and precipitation forecast for the month of November 2014. Below those, the official Climate Prediction Center forecast from NOAA, which is quite a bit different.

My November 2014 Temperature Forecast:


My November 2014 Precipitation Forecast:


Below, I'm including the Climate Prediction Center's forecast of temperature and precipitation for November, which is markedly different. I include these because they are the nation's leading government seasonal forecasting experts, and I think it's important to humbly introduce that there clearly is not "high confidence" in my forecast, when the official government forecast is so different. Why the difference? My guess would be their forecast is heavily based upon a longer-term climate forecast model, while mine is predominantly on weather pattern interpretation based upon the next 2-3 week timeframe.

CPC Temperature and Precipitation Forecast for November 2014:

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