Sunday was supposed to be the drier day, but it is currently getting off to a cloudy, damp and dismal start. Scattered light showers with pockets of drizzle are shifting into southern New England this morning. Everyone will have a chance for a few showers in the morning, but I do expect a somewhat drier afternoon across the region. The problem as we all know by now is a stationary front off the coast, with weak waves of low pressure tracking along it. Our computer models have really struggled with these spokes of energy in the southwest flow aloft up the coast...which has made the overall forecast a bit iffy to say the least! Meanwhile, farther away from the stalled front, Sunday is morning is starting off dry across northern New England, but there are areas of fog reducing the visibility to below a mile at times in numerous locations. Very calm cool onshore winds will again keep temps in the 60s to near 70 at the coast. This has not been a good weekend for the beaches. Once the morning fog lifts, I expect breaks of sun across the north where highs will climb into the 70s to near 80. Southern New England will be locked in the clouds all day. Clouds and fog will linger again tonight with lows in the lower 60s.
By Monday, the stalled front will push far enough off the coast that drier air will begin to take hold. The air will still feel a bit muggy, but skies will be partly sunny with temperatures warming to near 80-85 degrees by afternoon. There will also be a risk of a few widely scattered showers of storms popping up especially in northern and western New England. The typical summer pattern to kick off the week will continue through Tuesday with morning sun, building evening clouds with an evening thunderstorm risk in the north and west, highs in the lower to mid 80s with a slight increase in humidity. What happens by the midweek is something not as usual for summer, but something we have become accustomed to THIS summer! Once again, another push of cooler than normal air from Canada will push into the Great Lakes with a deep trough which will be shifting into the Northeast. This persistent trough pattern has been able to suppress summer's heat for the eastern 2/3rds of the nation for most of the summer so far and has prevented any heat have conditions from happening in the New England. This trough will dig in during the midweek with an upper low sitting right over us Thursday. This type of pattern will supply plenty of cool air aloft for cumulus and storm development along with the necessary lift to trigger scattered strong to severe storms both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons are the most likely.
Once this trough lifts out, we will see a beautiful return of dry comfortable air returning from Canada for next weekend with sunshine and seasonally cool temps in the 70s and lower 80s. Upper level ridging will hold across the northeast through the start of next week to allow for a very nice stretch of weather which should take us right through Aug.14. We will have a lot of making up to do after this rotten weekend!