We are tracking snow and a wintry mix for New England Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. This would typically be a moderate impact event, however the heaviest snow hits during the Tuesday evening drive, and that will make it a high impact event. Let's dive into the details below.
Tuesday morning will be dry and overcast with temps in the 20s and teens, along with a northeast breeze. Snow arrives in Hartford, Connecticut, by noon. Snow spreads in the northeast toward Worcester County (noon to 2 p.m.) and Boston (2-4 p.m.).
The evening commute will be a mess with snow rates around an inch per hour across Boston 4-8 p.m. Snow-covered roads and low visibility will make it slow and difficult to travel. Snow continues to fall across northern New England and Massachusetts after 8 p.m., though a slow transition to a wintry mix takes place across Rhode Island and Connecticut. Most of the ice accumulation will be across central and western Massachusetts, and northern Connecticut around midnight, ending before dawn Wednesday. By midnight, Boston switches over to rain. There will be a wintry mix across the Merrimack Valley and a mix across southern Vermont and New Hampshire.
The Wednesday morning drive will be more rain than anything across southern New England. Snow continuing to fall across Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine will make the morning drive tricky. Snow tapers off up north gradually through the afternoon. Rain shuts off in Boston just before lunchtime Wednesday.
The snow will accumulate across southern New England Tuesday evening, changing to a mix overnight. It's all snow in the north, so we have a wide range of snow totals as usual. Boston, Providence and Hartford will see about three to six inches, with those farther south and along the coastline expecting less snow. One to three inches will fall on Cape Cod and the islands, changing to rain Tuesday night. Six to nine inches are expected across the Worcester hills, the Berkshires and Merrimack Valley to southern New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine. Higher elevations north will see over a foot of snow, exactly where it should be.
We are not expecting coastal flooding with this storm, even with the easterly wind Tuesday night. Tides are astronomically low, so while we will notice increased surf, the tide heights should stay below flood stage. Wind gusts will be elevated but not so widespread or damaging. Gusts of 15-25 mph from the east will occur Tuesday evening, with peak winds nearing 40 mph around midnight for the coastlines. Gusty wind remains through Wednesday morning. By the morning commute, our wind changes direction across southeastern New England, coming from the south, turning west-southwest in the afternoon and gusts up to 30 mph. There is a low chance for damage or power outages with this one.
Wednesday afternoon, we will be in the mid 40s with a passing brief snow shower, and mainly in higher elevations. Valentine's Day brings us some quiet weather, as highs will be in the low 40s. Friday into Saturday, an area of low pressure tracks far northwest of New England, which means a rain event. With the snowpack and heavy rain potential, we may see localized flooding. We will be drying off Saturday into Sunday with low 40s, falling to the mid 30s Sunday. Next week brings a chance for a couple disturbances, so we have a daily chance for a wintry mix through the following Thursday. Highs will be in the low to mid 30s each day.