Our first weekend of unsettled weather this summer. I suppose we were due. But even with the impending rain ahead, there still will be plenty of us who see very little rain...if any at all this weekend! So all is not a wash! A front stalled south of New England is backing closer to us this weekend.
The Jetstream's Upper level winds are steering a steady SW flow aloft bring increased humidity, clouds and rain right up the east coast. Our computer models have been all over the place with this weekend's forecast, and quite frankly they still are struggling with the overall atmospheric set up. The morning radar shows a steady plume of rain to our south. This will be directed into southern New England Saturday morning by these upper level winds...with the focus of heavier rain being in RI and SE MA for the late AM through afternoon. In the bands of heavier rain across the SE there is the potential to pick up close to an inch of rain. Meanwhile, father inland away from the stalled front, the weather will not be all that bad and mostly dry for most of the weekend. The Cape and the Islands appear to have the worst weather this weekend. Rain will be developing and become heavy by lunch time. The intensity of the rain will diminish later today and begin to taper off tonight.
The overall set up will not change much on Sunday. A stationary front will remain off the coast. A few morning showers may ride up along the front and clip SE MA tomorrow, with lingering showers for Cape Cod. Meanwhile, farther inland cloudy to partly sunny skies in the 70's for Sunday with a mainly dry day expected for many. With the talk of showers, I can not stress enough that there will plenty of decent weather this weekend to enjoy as well...just not perfect. 1st world problems.
Next week looks like a typical summertime set up. The days will start with sun, with building afternoon clouds and a risk for an afternoon thunderstorm. A series of weak fronts will help to trigger a few of these storms, especially in the N & W. Temperatures will get a bit warmer climbing into the Lwr-mid 80's through midweek...before becoming a bit cooler and less humid to end the week with plenty of sunshine with building high pressure.
The Climate Prediction Center has put out a general forecast for the month of August. No real signal of warm or cool for the Northeast means the overall airmass will remain fairly seasonal with no big extremes expected. I do see a flattening to the overall flow by August 9th-18th which should at least allow temperatures to warm up a bit more with temps in the 80's before this summer completely goes bye bye. Better beach days ahead!