This time of year it makes a huge difference which way the wind blows and how much sunshine we have, sunshine and a land breeze means warm weather.
What can be a very cold night with the low temperature in the 30s can warm nicely to 70 degrees if the wind is right and the sun is shining.
Wind coming in from the 45 degree ocean, and/or rain clouds means much colder weather. We see this change coming in for Tuesday, and maybe again later this week.
For Monday, we have mostly a land-breeze and filtered sunshine. With a breeze from the southwest, we are warmer on the east facing shores, but a bit chilly along the south facing shoreline. That should get us to near 60 degrees inland before showers arrive late in the afternoon.
A powerful weather system producing severe weather in the middle of the nation is pushing moisture in our direction, along a front that is stalling in New England.
Low pressure on that front will race across New England late Sunday and tomorrow with a batch of rain and snow overnight and Tuesday.
The wind will shift and come in from the north and northeast, along with thick clouds, so that means much colder weather for Tuesday. Cold enough that accumulating snow may fall in the higher elevations of Vermont, New Hampshire, and southern Maine.
A very impressive temperature gradient exists this week between cold in Canada, and warmth in the central in southeastern United States.
A blocking pattern in the north Atlantic ocean will result in most of the warmth staying south, and perhaps a suppression of the late week weather system to the south.
It's a pretty tricky forecast later in the week as another low-pressure system will move to the East Coast Thursday night and Friday.
There is a tendency in our weather guidance trying to keep that rainfall further south than we were thinking over the weekend.
Though it is a blocking pattern in the atmosphere we happen to be in an area where the northern jetstream from Canada is lined up with the subtropical jetstream over the eastern United States, so for us the weather does change frequently this week.
It is a very fast flow high in the sky, so timing each wave of low-pressure transiting from the central United States to the Atlantic Ocean is a major challenge to our forecast this week.
The early call for the Tuesday precipitation is between one half and 1 inch of rain for central and southern New England, and maybe a few inches of snow at the highest elevations of Central and Northern New England.
Northern Maine may miss the action altogether and stay sunny and cold all week long.
We will try and get more accurate on the Thursday through Friday system as the time nears. The early call for the weekend is for dry weather and seasonable temperatures in the 60s.