After days pummeling the Bahamas, Dorian’s anticipated turn toward the Florida coastline is upon us. While the storm has weakened, the waves, water and rain are still swirling around and under the storm. That has to go somewhere, and with a track hugging the southeast coast of the United States, there are likely to be pockets of significant damage.
Rain bands have been peppering the Florida peninsula for two days now. They will intensify as the storm nears today and tomorrow. Rainfall totals are expected to climb to 6-8 inches throughout Eastern Florida. Storm surge could be as high as 4-7 feet in some bays, inlets and sounds! This will cause some inundation of flood-prone locations near the coast, aided and abetted by of 25-30+ feet offshore. And while the core of the strongest winds will likely stay off the coast, hurricane-force gusts will scrape the coastline from time to time during the most intense bursts of rain pinwheeling off the storm.
As Florida stares down Dorian, our weather turns back to sunshine and pleasantly warm temps. Highs will rise again to near 80 in spots, with the coast hovering in the low to mid 70s with a sea breeze.
Humidity surges back with some bits of summer heat by midweek. An important front will cross late Wednesday, one that promises to straddle Dorian and steer it away from New England. Ironically, instead of sultry temps and humidity, cooler air will be spilling in behind the front, keeping our temps in the 60s as Dorian passes far offshore.
Wind and heavy rain is still possible for the Cape/Islands late Friday as the storm sweeps into Nova Scotia, but the exact amounts and speeds are still too early to pin down this far out. Generally speaking, rainfall could range from up to 1 to more than 2 inches in spots across southeastern Mass. What is more certain is the likelihood of large breakers and heavy surf starting as early as Thursday morning especially on the south-facing shorelines.
Finer points to be ironed out in the days to come!