We're certain that we'll be missing out on the 2+ feet of snow in the Mid-Atlantic states Saturday and Sunday.
But we're not coming away lily-white in this stormy venture. The Blizzard Warning issued over the Vineyard this afternoon should be a forewarning that this nor'easter is a credible threat. Certainly we ride on the edge of this tempest, but like the event horizon of a black hole, that's sometimes where the action is.
Snow sweeps down the Connecticut coast throughout the morning tomorrow, reaching Southeast Mass. in the mid-morning. Thereafter, it will work up through the Pike and into Greater Boston/Worcester in the afternoon. The job is made hard by a draw of dry air rushing into the storm from the north. This dry air will chew away at the northern edge of the snow shield, slowing its advance and causing it to cycle between flakes and snow showers.
Meantime, the temperatures warm on the Cape/Islands. We'll mix in plain rain until late at night when the storm makes its closest pass to New England.
That's also when the winds - which will be ramping up through the afternoon - will start to gust between 40-55 mph across Southeast Mass. Power outages or fluctuations are likely from Taunton and Plymouth to Nantucket and Chatham. Get your flashlights ready.
As the storm passes to the south, precipitation will intensify Saturday night in Connecticut, SE Mass and Southern Rhode Island. It's here that we'll likely see a change back to snow on the outer Cape.
The endgame is Sunday morning for the snowy part of the storm, but the coastal flood threat will still be playing out. All through the night on Saturday, the water will be piling up along the coast. Storm surges of 1.5 to 3 feet are possible (added on top of the already high tide) to create a moderate flooding threat from Marshfield and Plymouth, the outer Cape and Nantucket. Shore roads and beachfront homes could be inundated in the hours before and after the late morning high tide.
So that's the essence of the our storm. We're not neglecting you Northern New England. You get the side show of clouds and cold temperatures as you watch on the sidelines.
Warmer temps are back next week.
Be safe and enjoy the weekend.