Cold Dry Through Election Day- Then a Nor'easter - NECN
Weather New England

Weather New England

Meteorologists' Observations on the Weather

Cold Dry Through Election Day- Then a Nor'easter



    It has been snowing on and off in the Green Mountains of Vermont with new cold from Canada this first weekend of November 2012. Some of this weather may be attributed to the backside of an upper low that absorbed super storm sandy.
    Here at the Stowe Mountain Lodge the ground is white, above on the summit of Mount Mansfield about 4" of snow fell in the last 48 hours.
    The big question is.. will we get more snow with a Nor'easter this week.
    Definitely maybe :)


    Before any storm, we have a fairly quiet pattern Coast to Coast in the lower 48 of the United States of America.
    Here is the Tuesday November 6th forecast map.


    The 2 low pressure systems are of Pacific Origin. The low over Georgia will have traversed 3000 miles from British Columbia to the Atlantic Ocean without much in the way of precipitation or wind. But the position at the base of an upper trough on the east coast allows the low to absorb humid heat energy from the warm water of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Gulf Stream. Meanwhile, the coldest High Pressure since last winter is building on the backside of yet another backing Labrador Storm. This cold is deep initially but will be lifting out as the low intensifies off the Mid Atlantic late Tuesday into Wednesday.
    The low over the Great Lakes is also of Pacific Origin and has only marginal cold with it. That Lakes low will try and feed warmer air out in front of the developing coastal low.
    So, in other words, the old cold in New England will be marginal for possible snow in the high terrain of New England as the Nor'easter approaches.
    Here is the map Wednesday morning November 7th.


    Wednesday should start dry, and with a few hours of sunshine, temperatures will rise from the 20s at sunrise to the 40s by lunch time. Those few hours of sunshine could be crucial to prevent an icy mix of snow, sleet, and rain here in New England during Wednesday.
    Regardless of how much snow and sleet is with the storm, we will see a lot of wind and waves.
    The early outlook is for Gale to Storm Force wind Wednesday Night and Thursday morning. With our coastline more vulnerable following Sandy, this moderate to major Nor'easter may have greater impact than if we had not just endured a similar storm (Sandy in New England was similar to upcoming event).
    We are in a cycle of lower astronomical tides with a waning crescent moon. But wind and waves will cause erosion and minor to moderate coastal flooding. High tide will be pre-sunset and pre-sunrise at the New England south coast, 2-3 hours later on east facing shores. Wind should be coming from the Northeast, making our east facing shores most vulnerable.
    The net impact of this Nor'easter may be similar to Irene from Cape Cod northward, but should have less impact than Sandy from Cape Cod westward.

    GFS snow forecast from Sunday, sure to change.


    Of Course this is all an early estimate. Many more updates are on the way before we have to batten down the hatches once again.