Earl made landfall just before noon Saturday Sept 4, 2010 at WesternHead Nova Scotia. The West Scotian Buoy measured a 42' wave, theHalifax Airport measured wind gusts to 75 mph. About 200,000 NovaScotia customers lost electricity. The Hurricane Centre of EnvironmentCanada is examining data and damage to determine whether to classifyEarl as a Hurricane or Strong Tropical Storm at landfall in LunenburgCounty. Archives for the 11 Day Journey of earl may be found at theU.S. National Hurricane Center, and Environment Canada Hurricane Centre. From a personal perspective, the forecast for Earl here in NewEngland goes down as one of the worst in my memory. This storm lookedwas The Most Likely Candidate for a Hit, than any other storm I havetracked since NECN opened March2, 1992. The only factors I see fromthis up close memory, are:
1. The relatively slow (compared to hurricanes that hit New England) of Earl passing North Carolina, (Velocity 20 at 18 mph).
2. We had a moderate to strong negative North Atlantic Oscillation lastweek. In other words a blocking trough in the North Atlantic. This setup often causes storms to pass south and east of Cape Cod.
A Hurricane Warning means sustained wind of 75 mph are imminent. Wedid not even have sustained winds of 39 mph (Tropical Storm force).This proves weather remains unpredictable. We do a good job calling theplay by play, and many times make a decant forecast. But there arealways surprises.
Take today for example. Our Sunday September 5, 2010 is much colderand cloudier than forecast. We have sprinkles and sweatshirt weather inNH, VT, and ME, Wind is still gusting past 30 mph, with highs only near60 in the hills, and clouds rule the day for northern New England.Sorry about that. No snow reported on Mount Washington, but we did hit32 this morning, to 36 this afternoon as wind gusts to 65 mph inheavy fog.
Brighter and warmer air is here Monday-Wednesday. Highs near 80Monday, then in the 80s Tues & Weds. A vigorous cold front passesWednesday with a gusty shower, then more mild and breezy weather ishere Thursday into the weekend.
The tropics may come alive with the regeneration of Gaston into theLeeward Islands, then toward Florida. And we have Thunderstormsorganizing into possible Hermine deep in the Gulf of Mexico. That stormlooks more like the systems back in July, flooding for Mexico andTexas. We may get some of that rain next weekend. Until then, mostlydry for New England.