Hurricane Forecast Fail - NECN
Weather New England

Weather New England

Meteorologists' Observations on the Weather

Hurricane Forecast Fail



    A common critique over the years has been.. 'just admit you are wrong once in a while'.
    OK, it is time to admit, I WAS WRONG.
    it is obvious that we are not enduring the impact of 1-2 hurricanes in New England between August 18 and September 22 this year.

    The prevailing pattern leading into summer, with frequent cold shots into the Midwestern USA, and warm western Atlantic sea surface temperatures has not produced in the manner expected.Though the Atlantic Ocean is still in a warm phase, the Jet Stream over the USA has shifted significantly. Instead of cold shots into the Great Lakes and down the Mississippi, the cold shots have been aimed at New England, while record heat covers the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. That means we have a flow from Canada, for the most part lately, instead of up the east coast. In addition, this Atlantic Hurricane season is among the slowest on record. Tropical  Depression number 9 has formed near Africa, this may intensify to Hurricane Humberto by September 11th. If so Huberto would ties Gustav on September 11, 2002 as the latest first Hurricane on record in the Atlantic.
    But The National Hurricane Center says the track is close to 3,000 miles from New England.

    There is one mystery force that may come into play.
    There are two major weather conferences in New England on September 21st.
    Lyndon State College in Vermont (my Alma mater) is hosting a 40th anniversary of
    The LSC Weather Department
    And The Blue Hill Observatory is hosting a, 75th anniversary of the 1938 Hurricane, Weather Conference.
    For some mystical reason, we usually have major weather events at the same time as our weather conferences. So my other worldly call is for a possible hurricane up the coast on the weekend of September 21-22. At the same time all meteorologists (except me) will have plans other than covering a hurricane.