I'm coming off a January monthly forecast that performed reasonably well with regard to temperature - above normal by 2.5 to 3 degrees in Southern New England and only about 1.5 degrees above normal in the far North Country - but saw very poor forecast performance with regard to precipitation. The culprit regarding the precipitation forecast was the failure for the jet stream trough to retrograde westward sufficiently to allow for coastal cyclogenesis - mostly owing to the absence of ridging in the Western Atlantic - when the opportunity for northern and southern stream phasing arose.
Looking forward into February, I still see little change in the jet stream pattern in the East - meaning several disturbances will likely sail south of New England. The Gulf of Mexico will open to provide moisture, meaning ample precipitation production will result in the Southeast United States. A redirection of the Westerlies in the Western United States will favor digging disturbances across the Southwest U.S. from time to time, but moreover, will mean a redirection of the Pacific moisture that has brought months of above normal precipitation to the Pacific Northwest. Another batch of cold air from Canada will unload for the second half of the month, and this is a source of uncertainty - just how far east does the cold dig? Considering that this cold air is less intense than the shot I was looking at for January, however, and the fact that New England was above normal in January - not to mention the greatest northern stream troughing is over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest - this does not favor carrying the heart of cold air into New England when averaged over the month. Rather, wild swings in temperature over the month are likely, averaging warmer-than-normal. More explanation in the video:
