Tracking the Tropics: Emily to Strengthen, Eventually Impact, Though Likely Not Strike, the East Coast

Though Wednesday brought very little change with Emily, she has been sitting over warm water - warm enough to support a Category 5 storm (though upwelling is evident in her wake) - and if atmospheric conditions cooperated, she would strengthen steadily.  Sure enough, Wednesday night found Emily in a small envelope of low wind shear, with the stronger shear to the north of the cyclone providing evacuation of air from the northern semi-circle, and this was enough for deep convection to fire long enough and strong enough to give Emily one of the more impressive satellite signatures of her young existence.  Additionally, the surface center that was running on the west side of the convection slowed, then stalled in response to the deep thunderstorms lowering surface pressures, and may try to tuck under the thunderstorms.  This truly would give Emily an opportunity to strengthen.  Nonetheless, the eventual west-northwest and then northwest track over Western Haiti will bring the storm back into a moderately sheared environment, with the shear not weakening again until Emily crosses the Northern Bahamas, likely bringing high surf and rain bands to Eastern Florida this weekend.  Over the Gulf Stream, and in this lower shear environment, Emily would have little stopping her from reaching hurricane strength, but a large upper level low over Eastern Canada will force the Westerlies to settle south, increasing westerly steering winds across the Mid-Atlantic and ensuring that Emily would not come any farther north than the Outer Banks.  Even the Outer Banks are an unlikely direct hit, as the storm would likely recurve off the coast of Georgia and South Carolina, but high surf will impact the East Coast this weekend and into early next week.